Absolutely, it will get to the point where everyone, including the P5 schools, is wretching so bad from the stink that some entity more powerful than the P5 (for some of you, that's hard to believe that animal exists) , will step in to put the hammer down on this shit show to restore some semblance of sanity.
Players won’t only go to where they get paid the most they will also go to where they get paid and can play. Evaluations will remain imperfect. Development will still be a thing. Institutions will only pay so much for potential talent that is blocked from seeing the field. If every player is a free agent every year that is the opposite of sacristy which will suppress bidding wars, etc.
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
That seems to rely on market inefficiencies to provide competitive balance.
In a perfectly efficient market, schools spending more will have equal or better recruiting/evaluation and development organizations. The P5 spend large amounts in those areas as well. An efficient fluid marketplace of talent would likely result in the best players landing at the top spenders, and sorted downwards by spending level.
I believe NIL plus the Portal has started to make this happen. Sure, it may not be perfectly efficient, but what we are now seeing is more talented players move upwards, and less talented players move downwards. A schools player talent will increasingly correspond to how much money they can spend.
We could probably play that game to a degree, and offering things like FCOA works well at the FCS level when few other schools do it. At the P5 level the money being spent is an order of magnitude more than the G5 spend. I don’t see a way for the G5 to be competitively relevant without changes. They are getting crushed by this.
For what it's worth, G5 was getting crushed before NIL. It certainly isn't going to help, but it's not as if anything has really changed with the G5 schools.
As far as the inefficient market point you made. There's 100 reasons a kid picks a school. Money is going to be a major factor but so is playing time, fit with coaches, proximity to home or a million other things. If kids are going to go to a school knowingly to ride the bench and never play, I'm not sure they're really coming out ahead there.
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie