2022 Sagarin ratings

[Hammerhead]

Updating ratings, NDSU 56 and Arizona 63. Not sure about that one.

Arizona's strength of schedule dropped with Mississippi State 11 to 25.

[bisonaudit]

Except it sort of does. It looks at the score margin, other statistics and home field advantage.
Haven't looked, but pretty sure we won some of the statistical categories.

Sagarin is only scoring margin and home/away unless something has changed. That’s it, with the exception of whatever’s in the secret recipe for the preseason ratings.

[BigHorns]

Sagarin is only scoring margin and home/away unless something has changed. That’s it, with the exception of whatever’s in the secret recipe for the preseason ratings.

Just curious, has that been documented? A lot of the computer rankings have a lot more factors in their secret recipe.

Sagarin gives 3 points for home field, so effectively it considered that game a tie outcome on neutral turf.
We outperformed them in total yardage and TOP.

[bisonaudit]

Just curious, has that been documented? A lot of the computer rankings have a lot more factors in their secret recipe.

Sagarin gives 3 points for home field, so effectively it considered that game a tie outcome on neutral turf.
We outperformed them in total yardage and TOP.

Sagarin, to my knowledge doesn’t officially disclose anything other than the few paragraphs on the top of the web page. I’ve read Mathletics which is an old book now by one of he colleagues and collaborators and that basically disclosed the formula from back in the day, but it’s anyone’s guess how it’s been changed and updated. Though I don’t believe that the description on the web site has changed substantially and even says that they’re “completely score based”. Also the home field isn’t automatically 3 points. It tends to be around 3 but it is calculated by the algo in conjunction with the team ratings.

[THEsocalledfan]

Top 25 per Sagarin:

56 North Dakota State AA = 72.66 2 1 45.97( 212) 0 0 | 0 0 | 74.28 51 | 73.88 50 | 70.50 63 MISSOURI VALLEY
72 Montana AA = 69.44 3 0 42.88( 234) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.32 84 | 67.31 85 | 70.92 59 BIG SKY
91 South Dakota State AA = 65.29 2 1 56.70( 159) 0 0 | 0 0 | 68.65 78 | 69.11 75 | 59.84 110 MISSOURI VALLEY
98 Weber State AA = 64.24 3 0 48.80( 198) 0 0 | 0 0 | 64.99 96 | 62.83 108 | 62.74 96 BIG SKY
108 Missouri State AA = 62.57 2 1 59.61( 131) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.14 112 | 60.95 115 | 62.21 99 MISSOURI VALLEY
109 Sacramento State AA = 61.59 2 0 47.20( 208) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.80 115 | 60.46 118 | 60.42 106 BIG SKY
112 Incarnate Word AA = 61.00 3 0 54.12( 174) 0 0 | 0 0 | 63.63 102 | 59.12 123 | 58.24 114 SOUTHLAND
114 UC Davis AA = 60.75 1 2 62.67( 93) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.75 116 | 58.04 129 | 59.94 109 BIG SKY
115 Chattanooga AA = 60.64 3 0 40.27( 240) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.21 119 | 58.11 128 | 59.96 108 SOUTHERN
124 Delaware AA = 58.21 3 0 46.78( 209) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.86 135 | 55.90 138 | 57.54 116 COLONIAL
127 SE Louisiana AA = 57.87 1 2 60.02( 126) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.00 130 | 57.10 133 | 55.99 122 SOUTHLAND
130 Southern Illinois AA = 57.44 1 2 60.36( 121) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.96 132 | 58.78 125 | 54.06 132 MISSOURI VALLEY
131 Montana State AA = 57.10 2 1 39.78( 242) 0 0 | 0 1 | 54.31 143 | 57.43 131 | 55.57 125 BIG SKY
132 Austin Peay AA = 56.80 3 1 32.63( 254) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.61 138 | 52.60 152 | 56.90 120 ASUN
133 Dartmouth AA = 56.67 1 0 29.48( 258) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.20 120 | 59.24 122 | 50.74 146 IVY LEAGUE
134 Youngstown State AA = 56.64 2 1 44.51( 221) 0 0 | 0 1 | 55.91 137 | 55.21 141 | 54.86 130 MISSOURI VALLEY
135 Idaho AA = 56.31 1 2 65.31( 64) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.69 122 | 54.28 145 | 53.05 136 BIG SKY
136 North Dakota AA = 56.12 2 1 57.69( 150) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.60 151 | 55.77 139 | 55.23 127 MISSOURI VALLEY
138 South Dakota AA = 56.01 1 2 67.27( 45) 0 0 | 0 1 | 55.45 139 | 56.72 136 | 52.81 138 MISSOURI VALLEY
139 Furman AA = 55.65 2 1 67.60( 41) 0 0 | 0 1 | 53.99 145 | 52.87 150 | 55.02 128 SOUTHERN
140 William & Mary AA = 55.36 3 0 42.82( 235) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.55 147 | 51.55 158 | 55.34 126 COLONIAL
141 Illinois State AA = 55.25 2 1 43.02( 233) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.10 129 | 56.83 135 | 50.05 150 MISSOURI VALLEY
143 Holy Cross AA = 54.81 3 0 46.72( 210) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.24 136 | 52.26 154 | 52.16 144 PATRIOT
144 Northern Iowa AA = 54.73 0 3 64.14( 75) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.28 144 | 57.63 130 | 50.02 151 MISSOURI VALLEY
145 Eastern Kentucky AA = 54.66 2 1 55.45( 168) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.48 142 | 53.07 148 | 52.37 143 ASUN

No idea what to think of SIU at this point...I count 9 MVFC teams.

[Mr Pep Band]

No surprise with the multitude of MVFC teams. UNI is finally falling in the rankings with their losses mounting.

It is hard to place SIU right now with their erratic win and losses. They allow Incarnate Word to hang 64 on them, lose by 3 to SEMO, and then beat NORTHWESTERN?! Which team will show up? a good team or a bad team. I won't be picking them until I see some consistency. I am a little worried with SIU because they have their Bye the week before we play them in November.

[NDSU92]

Just curious, has that been documented? A lot of the computer rankings have a lot more factors in their secret recipe.

Sagarin gives 3 points for home field, so effectively it considered that game a tie outcome on neutral turf.
We outperformed them in total yardage and TOP.

It uses bye weeks too. The problem with using yardage, TOP, or any other super idiosyncratic info for any analysis is that you start diving down into a rabbit hole of: injuries, suspensions, weather conditions, ejections, offense/defense type that can really throw off the numbers. Best to just let those things all come out in the wash, IMO.

Besides the fact that you'd now have some human assigning weight to these different stats. The thing I like about Sagarin is the apparent unbias to everything. Hell if it doesn't take winning/losing into account I can't imagine the algo looks at TOP.

[bisonaudit]

It uses bye weeks too. The problem with using yardage, TOP, or any other super idiosyncratic info for any analysis is that you start diving down into a rabbit hole of: injuries, suspensions, weather conditions, ejections, offense/defense type that can really throw off the numbers. Best to just let those things all come out in the wash, IMO.

Besides the fact that you'd now have some human assigning weight to these different stats. The thing I like about Sagarin is the apparent unbias to everything. Hell if it doesn't take winning/losing into account I can't imagine the algo looks at TOP.

I’m not sure that it does use bye weeks. I’d really like to know if that’s true because if it is I could stop making an adjustment for it after the fact.

[BigHorns]

Arizona drops to #74 in Sagarin with the loss yesterday. Below Montana (#59) and in the range of SDSU (#79)

[NDSU92]

I’m not sure that it does use bye weeks. I’d really like to know if that’s true because if it is I could stop making an adjustment for it after the fact.

We could probably look at the bottom where he lists game predictions and compare it vs expected without bye weeks and figure it out?