2022 Sagarin ratings

[THEsocalledfan]

11/14

1. SDSU 64
2. Montana 69
3. Sac St 74
4. NDSU 77
5. Weber State 86
6. UC Davis 89

lol what is this? Montana is soaring up the ratings with 3 losses and UC davis at 6 with 4 losses? I thought these ratings were supposed to make more sense as the year goes on, haha this is actually becoming more confusing

Montana has been crushing opponents since Johnson got back, but now hurt again? And remember, they barely lose to Sac St. This is not surprising.

[NDSU92]

For about the 100 millionth time, wins vs losses don't matter to Sagarin's ratings. Point margin matters. You really want to get a hoot go look at where Montana State is at. If Sac loses to Davis this weekend and the 8th best team in FCS will have homefield advantage through the playoffs.

[The_Sicatoka]

1. SDSU 64
2. Montana 69
3. Sac St 74
4. NDSU 77
5. Weber State 86
6. UC Davis 89
7. IWU 96
8. Montana State 103
9. Idaho 113
10. UNI 116 <-- five losses
11. SIU 118 <-- five losses
12. Mercer 120
13. Samford 121
14. UND 122 <-- three losses? and defeated UNI?

[NDSU92]

1. SDSU 64
2. Montana 69
3. Sac St 74
4. NDSU 77
5. Weber State 86
6. UC Davis 89
7. IWU 96
8. Montana State 103
9. Idaho 113
10. UNI 116 <-- five losses
11. SIU 118 <-- five losses
12. Mercer 120
13. Samford 121
14. UND 122 <-- three losses? and defeated UNI?

Point margin vs. margin expected brooooooo. Wins. and. losses. do. not. matter.

Figure it out you guys complain about this every year when you beat Northern Arizona and Abilene Christian by 3 points

Or maybe Jeff spent last weekend in Fargo making backroom deals or whatever you think is going on

[MankatoBison]

For about the 100 millionth time, wins vs losses don't matter to Sagarin's ratings. Point margin matters. You really want to get a hoot go look at where Montana State is at. If Sac loses to Davis this weekend and the 8th best team in FCS will have homefield advantage through the playoffs.

yes we know wins and losses dont matter. My point is, the more data Sagarin collects, it usually becomes closer to reality in terms of rankings etc. Basically every year in the last decade the MVFC has dominated the the top 10-15- which is accurate. My point is, its not very common to see 3 and 4 loss teams pushing or surpassing NDSU/SDSU etc.

Then again, the depth of the FCS has never been worse either, so teams that would be fringe top 10 are now automatically top 3-5 etc.

[MankatoBison]

11/19/2022

1. SDSU 63
2. NDSU 69 (nice)
3. SacState 71
4. Montana 88
5. Montana St 89
6. IncarnateW 90
7. UC Davis 93
8. Weber 95

Looking better but having Montana State exactly one spot behind Montana made me laugh out loud. Apparently, MSU should have beaten them by 6 touchdowns, and THEN we could maybe say they are better than montana.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Looks like Montana State better mail that trophy back to the Griz

[NDSU92]

11/19/2022

1. SDSU 63
2. NDSU 69 (nice)
3. SacState 71
4. Montana 88
5. Montana St 89
6. IncarnateW 90
7. UC Davis 93
8. Weber 95

Looking better but having Montana State exactly one spot behind Montana made me laugh out loud. Apparently, MSU should have beaten them by 6 touchdowns, and THEN we could maybe say they are better than montana.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Looks like Montana State better mail that trophy back to the Griz

I get your point and it looks terrible but don't blame sagarin. Blame Montana State's performance leading up to the Brawl game.

Sagarin's rating system doesn't care that they've played head to head. It's only one data point in a season of 10 others. If Montana State doesn't like their spot they could've beaten NAU and Eastern Washington by more than 3 points each. The combined input of those two results is way more harmful than a 34 point win over the Griz is helpful.

Just like Indiana State shouldn't be the #3 team in the conference based on one game against NDSU

[Bisonator98]

I get your point and it looks terrible but don't blame sagarin. Blame Montana State's performance leading up to the Brawl game.

Sagarin's rating system doesn't care that they've played head to head. It's only one data point in a season of 10 others. If Montana State doesn't like their spot they could've beaten NAU and Eastern Washington by more than 3 points each. The combined input of those two results is way more harmful than a 34 point win over the Griz is helpful.

Just like Indiana State shouldn't be the #3 team in the conference based on one game against NDSU

No I think you should blame Sagarin since the formula doesn't come up with the correct ranking of 2 teams that have played each other. Maybe he should adjust his formula to include a little more weight for head to head results. I think Sagarin is a good system but it could be better.

[Gully]

No I think you should blame Sagarin since the formula doesn't come up with the correct ranking of 2 teams that have played each other. Maybe he should adjust his formula to include a little more weight for head to head results. I think Sagarin is a good system but it could be better.

With any rating solution, you will find things like that. The problem is if you adjusted more for that, you'd end up creating more error in another prediction/differential. The reason is teams don't play consistently (improvement, injuries, matchups, weather, etc.) The objective of Sagarin is to most closely predict relative strength overall. It's impossible to be perfect because of the consistency points I mentioned. Football isn't an exercise in perfect logic or consistency.

[Snowgoose]

The bad news for us is that we get Montana in the second round based on these ratings. People keep saying this is so easy to get to the semis but sorry if I think Montana could be a relatively difficult game more so than most other years.