2021 Sagarin Says

[Hammerhead]

Got out of the disgusting 90s, need another 50-0 shalacking to get out of the nasty 80s

Or wins over UND and SDSU.

[Mr Pep Band]

Just Win Baby.

Win

Win

Win

[THEsocalledfan]

Sagarin appears to be closing in on reality; new FCS top 25:

49 South Dakota State AA = 74.26 2 0 67.59( 62) 0 0 | 0 0 | 70.70 72 | 79.03 25 | 73.13 58 MISSOURI VALLEY
76 North Dakota State AA = 69.52 3 0 38.58( 245) 0 0 | 0 0 | 69.89 78 | 68.55 85 | 70.26 75 MISSOURI VALLEY
80 James Madison AA = 69.08 3 0 39.13( 244) 0 0 | 0 0 | 69.93 77 | 67.04 90 | 71.49 71 COLONIAL
89 Montana AA = 67.69 2 0 62.54( 107) 0 0 | 1 0 | 68.17 90 | 65.10 99 | 72.60 65 BIG SKY
102 Southern Illinois AA = 65.12 2 1 49.93( 198) 0 0 | 0 1 | 66.68 94 | 62.67 108 | 66.73 87 MISSOURI VALLEY
104 Sam Houston State AA = 64.86 2 0 45.81( 221) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.74 100 | 62.95 107 | 66.71 88 AQ7
105 Northern Iowa AA = 64.60 2 1 55.37( 153) 0 0 | 0 1 | 65.43 102 | 62.67 109 | 66.64 90 MISSOURI VALLEY
111 SE Louisiana AA = 60.44 2 1 50.30( 192) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.91 110 | 57.95 124 | 62.22 108 SOUTHLAND
112 UC Davis AA = 60.38 3 0 41.82( 235) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.20 112 | 57.76 126 | 63.99 103 BIG SKY
113 Montana State AA = 60.30 2 1 37.98( 249) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.32 111 | 58.65 123 | 61.10 113 BIG SKY
115 Weber State AA = 60.06 1 2 63.44( 94) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.64 113 | 59.80 117 | 58.66 120 BIG SKY
116 Princeton AA = 59.35 1 0 34.24( 253) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.61 119 | 60.00 115 | 58.90 119 IVY LEAGUE
118 North Dakota AA = 59.27 2 1 47.73( 213) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.96 116 | 59.38 120 | 59.03 118 MISSOURI VALLEY
123 South Dakota AA = 57.85 2 1 47.79( 212) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.80 117 | 56.03 132 | 59.13 117 MISSOURI VALLEY
125 Villanova AA = 57.52 3 0 35.43( 251) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.36 120 | 55.44 134 | 59.66 114 COLONIAL
128 Missouri State AA = 56.91 1 1 65.17( 86) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.64 123 | 55.18 135 | 58.50 121 MISSOURI VALLEY
129 Eastern Washington AA = 56.72 3 0 51.97( 181) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.62 131 | 56.91 129 | 58.10 122 BIG SKY
134 East Tennessee State AA = 55.61 3 0 44.33( 227) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.60 132 | 52.83 145 | 61.22 112 SOUTHERN
135 Harvard AA = 55.27 1 0 37.36( 250) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.51 135 | 55.55 133 | 55.69 133 IVY LEAGUE
136 Chattanooga AA = 55.11 1 2 54.94( 159) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.02 127 | 54.47 138 | 53.82 140 SOUTHERN
137 Kennesaw State AA = 54.70 2 1 60.21( 120) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.32 136 | 54.13 139 | 56.14 129 BIG SOUTH
139 Monmouth-NJ AA = 54.42 2 1 51.38( 183) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.80 143 | 54.93 136 | 56.23 128 BIG SOUTH
140 Nicholls State AA = 53.98 0 2 75.41( 14) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.05 134 | 52.38 151 | 54.42 136 SOUTHLAND
143 Incarnate Word AA = 53.11 2 1 49.94( 196) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.37 141 | 50.85 157 | 56.81 127 SOUTHLAND
145 Stephen F. Austin AA = 52.65 2 1 40.63( 237) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.43 140 | 50.81 158 | 54.28 137 AQ7

[23Bison]

It’s kind of interesting that SDSU has moved up to 49 on a buy week. I suppose it has to do with how Colorado St did. I think they won but not by a lot of they did. But hey, we are out of the 80s!!! Slaughter the team down stream and into the low 50s we go.

[THEsocalledfan]

It’s kind of interesting that SDSU has moved up to 49 on a buy week. I suppose it has to do with how Colorado St did. I think they won but not by a lot of they did. But hey, we are out of the 80s!!! Slaughter the team down stream and into the low 50s we go.

So much of this is cross conference play improving the model.....I think the math is just now catching up that the FCS is about as good as it ever is. Top tier will continue to rise.....most interesting to me is it even realized USD is probably better than Kansas even though they barely lost to them.

[NDSU92]

So much of this is cross conference play improving the model.....I think the math is just now catching up that the FCS is about as good as it ever is. Top tier will continue to rise.....most interesting to me is it even realized USD is probably better than Kansas even though they barely lost to them.

Yeah but they barely lost on the road right? Can’t remember the score but I thought it was close enough to flip it if it were on a neutral field.

And yeah, seeing that kind of change during a bye week *should* only happen during the beginning of the year or when enough of the underlying scoring gets tweaked.

[oldmantutters]

Yeah but they barely lost on the road right? Can’t remember the score but I thought it was close enough to flip it if it were on a neutral field.

And yeah, seeing that kind of change during a bye week *should* only happen during the beginning of the year or when enough of the underlying scoring gets tweaked.

SDSU improved by 2.64 which caused them to shoot up 19 spots on their bye week. If Towson was able to shock San Diego State, or keep it within 2 TDs that would certainly help us. Though I don't see that happening, more likely to go the other way.

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[THEsocalledfan]

I think USD is very undervalued in the polls right now and Sagarin is correct on them. They pass the eye test when I watch them. Poor yotes get no respect.

[bisonaudit]

Something is funky with SDSU’s ‘golden mean.’ They’re 25th on that metric. Only Michigan State’s ‘recent form’ ranking is a bigger outlier amongst the top 25 for each individual component of the ranking. Not saying it’s wrong just a candidate for regression. Three weeks still isn’t a ton of data.

[MNLonghorn10]

70s are still disgusting. Things feel better in the 50s and much better in the 40s. Need to drop a 40 bomb on the dorks up north