2021 Sagarin Says

[Hammerhead]

Looking at the top 30 ratings for the FCS, the three largest gaps from one team to the next in the rating scale are all at the top with the biggest jump from 1-2, then 3-4, followed by 2-3.

[TransAmBison]

I like Sagarin...but the Northern Iowa ranking always bothers me...they could lose every game and they would still be highly ranked. A 6-6 UNI team does not belong where it is...

[Bison 4 Life]

I like Sagarin...but the Northern Iowa ranking always bothers me...they could lose every game and they would still be highly ranked. A 6-6 UNI team does not belong where it is...

That's not true, this isn't subjective, it's a statistical formula.

[NDSU92]

That's not true, this isn't subjective, it's a statistical formula.

You could argue that the analysis doesn't weigh W/L enough. It seems very heavy on point margin and strength of schedule, which I like. But there is subjectivity between analyses. IIRC, the ELO rating doesn't take margin of victory into account, which would obv weigh more into W/L.

[bisonaudit]

I like Sagarin...but the Northern Iowa ranking always bothers me...they could lose every game and they would still be highly ranked. A 6-6 UNI team does not belong where it is...

They play a tough schedule and they lose close. I get why it bugs some people though. I guess the best gut level argument for it is, “do you really want to play those guys?”

[EC8CH]

They play a tough schedule and they lose close. I get why it bugs some people though. I guess the best gut level argument for it is, “do you really want to play those guys?”

Feels like a few years since UNI has been close to giving NDSU a real scare. Other teams though seem vulnerable on any given Saturday.

[semobison]

I like Sagarin...but the Northern Iowa ranking always bothers me...they could lose every game and they would still be highly ranked. A 6-6 UNI team does not belong where it is...

Results of playing the toughest schedule in FCS. Beat the Jacks, pounded Sac State, played Iowa State close. No real bad losses.

[Hammerhead]

They play a tough schedule and they lose close. I get why it bugs some people though. I guess the best gut level argument for it is, “do you really want to play those guys?”

UNI plays Iowa or Iowa State and doesn't get blown out. Should an FBS team that is 6-6 be rated lower than Sam Houston who has more wins?

[bisonaudit]

UNI plays Iowa or Iowa State and doesn't get blown out. Should an FBS team that is 6-6 be rated lower than Sam Houston who has more wins?

It depends on who they played and what the scores were. There are FBS teams with winning records who have lower Sagarin ratings than Sam Houston and UNI right now.

[Gully]

This thread gets at why there is such a debate between a 1 or 2 loss weaker conferecne team and a 4 or 5 loss team from the Valley.

Unless schools play a more equally difficult schedule, this will always be an issue/question.

Using just Sagarin is very logical, but doesn't really penalize for losses, just margin of victory/defeat. On the other hand, using just W/L may seem "fair" at a glance, but everyone knows the conferences aren't of equal quality.

Therefore they end up compromising and using some of both, which is probably the best they can do. Unfortunately, this open it up to logically inconsistent results that can be found by either side. So in the end, no one is happy.

It's a real conundrum. As a MVFC fan, I'm partial to the Sagarin view of the world. That said, I see what TransAm is saying. Theoretically (and maybe it actually happens), you could have a losing record and be Sagarin ranked higher than undefeated conference winners and that just seems weird. Although you could argue that's what autobids are for.