2021 Sagarin Says

[THEsocalledfan]

Keep in mind cross conference games were non-existent last year. There will be major change when they jettison last year's data......yea, 99 sucks, but the top of the FCS will move down substantially when that happens.

[OrygunBison]

I mean, in a nutshell, exactly.
That's kind of the basis in how the rankings work, not sure how that's confusing.
Exceed the current data set, move up.
Underperform, move down.
Throw in how past and future opponents do and put it in a proprietary formula.

Beat me to it. This premise is exactly why the Sagarin poll is different and why it works well in a typical year.

[Professor Chaos]

It's also possible we're starting to see how the other 99% of college football programs who aren't always punching significantly above their weight class are treated by Sagarin's model....

[THEsocalledfan]

As expected, Sagarin is correcting each week with the cross conference play. NDSU moves up 10 spots; getting closer to reality.....top 25 per Sagarin:

68 South Dakota State AA = 71.62 2 0 61.44( 111) 0 0 | 0 0 | 70.19 74 | 72.61 58 | 72.04 69 MISSOURI VALLEY
89 North Dakota State AA = 67.84 2 0 31.89( 242) 0 0 | 0 0 | 68.08 87 | 67.22 89 | 67.99 84 MISSOURI VALLEY
92 Montana AA = 67.19 2 0 60.60( 116) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.53 92 | 64.18 103 | 73.67 54 BIG SKY
93 James Madison AA = 67.04 2 0 29.85( 244) 0 0 | 0 0 | 68.27 86 | 65.11 100 | 68.11 82 COLONIAL
105 Sam Houston State AA = 63.97 2 0 44.00( 215) 0 0 | 0 0 | 64.82 104 | 62.16 108 | 65.55 94 AQ7
106 Northern Iowa AA = 63.94 1 1 69.48( 50) 0 0 | 0 1 | 65.01 103 | 61.62 111 | 66.30 92 MISSOURI VALLEY
110 Southern Illinois AA = 62.26 1 1 64.12( 93) 0 0 | 0 1 | 63.40 109 | 60.20 121 | 63.75 106 MISSOURI VALLEY
112 Weber State AA = 61.65 1 1 59.68( 127) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.24 111 | 60.64 118 | 61.91 112 BIG SKY
117 UC Davis AA = 60.09 2 0 53.76( 168) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.06 113 | 56.71 131 | 65.14 97 BIG SKY
118 Eastern Washington AA = 59.69 2 0 59.00( 135) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.57 126 | 61.36 115 | 60.03 118 BIG SKY
120 Montana State AA = 59.30 1 1 52.85( 178) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.48 114 | 57.48 129 | 60.09 117 BIG SKY
121 North Dakota AA = 58.99 1 1 58.65( 138) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.56 122 | 59.14 123 | 58.90 123 MISSOURI VALLEY
122 East Tennessee State AA = 58.97 2 0 60.76( 115) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.35 139 | 61.56 113 | 63.02 110 SOUTHERN
123 Princeton AA = 58.73 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.82 120 | 58.28 126 | 58.85 124 IVY LEAGUE
126 Villanova AA = 58.07 2 0 31.87( 243) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.86 118 | 55.01 135 | 60.24 115 COLONIAL
130 Missouri State AA = 57.27 1 1 65.59( 80) 0 0 | 0 1 | 58.05 124 | 55.20 134 | 59.48 120 MISSOURI VALLEY
134 SE Louisiana AA = 56.28 1 1 55.27( 156) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.08 127 | 54.68 137 | 57.34 128 SOUTHLAND
137 South Dakota AA = 55.75 1 1 52.82( 179) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.65 130 | 54.20 139 | 56.49 130 MISSOURI VALLEY
139 Jacksonville State AA = 54.51 1 1 68.65( 60) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.56 142 | 53.57 144 | 58.05 126 AQ7
141 Dartmouth AA = 53.92 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.87 140 | 53.59 142 | 54.05 138 IVY LEAGUE
142 Yale AA = 53.86 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.81 141 | 53.53 145 | 54.00 139 IVY LEAGUE
143 Nicholls State AA = 53.56 0 2 73.99( 25) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.48 137 | 52.15 151 | 53.89 141 SOUTHLAND
145 Delaware AA = 53.34 2 0 39.79( 229) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.51 148 | 53.25 146 | 54.68 135 COLONIAL
146 Central Arkansas AA = 53.22 0 2 64.39( 90) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.38 143 | 53.62 141 | 51.17 154 AQ7
147 Illinois State AA = 53.04 1 1 45.60( 209) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.52 147 | 53.57 143 | 52.29 152 MISSOURI VALLEY

[Kevin]

They should update the algorithm to account for SDSU's constant cheating.

They should be below us and Montana by about five places imo.

I did the math.

[23Bison]

Thank god we are in the 80s (barely) now we get a couple more good wins by 60+ and we’ll be in the 50s. Lol

[Hammerhead]

Sagarin has NDSU favored at Towson by about 15 points.

[THEsocalledfan]

Sagarin has NDSU favored at Towson by about 15 points.

Easy cover if that holds with the books......

[thebootfitter]

Sagarin has NDSU favored at Towson by about 15 points.

Hmm… I suspect we will win by at least 20.

[MNLonghorn10]

Got out of the disgusting 90s, need another 50-0 shalacking to get out of the nasty 80s