MVFC Playoff Picture

[heffray]

Sam Herders take on the playoff picture for everyone else:

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-...dictions-bzbz/

[Professor Chaos]

The wide gulf between NDSU at #1 and any other team in the FCS at #2 is what skews our perception of calling any other team's success good enough to be called #2. SHSU, EWU, JMU, SDSU have all been fairly consistently good and would be better if not for NDSU sucking all the oxygen out of the FCS for the past decade.

There was a guy on AGS who came up with a point system for playoff success. Basically teams got anywhere from 5 points for a playoff appearance and a first round exit escalating to 90 points for a championship. I broke it down by decade and it's pretty incredible how NDSU's dominance of the 2010s blows away any other number anyone else has put up in a single decade:




Overall NDSU is still 3rd all time in FCS/1AA history using this scoring system but in terms of playoff appearances they're well behind most of their peers at the top of this list and are gaining quickly on Montana in particular:

[heffray]

There was a guy on AGS who came up with a point system for playoff success. Basically teams got anywhere from 5 points for a playoff appearance and a first round exit escalating to 90 points for a championship. I broke it down by decade and it's pretty incredible how NDSU's dominance of the 2010s blows away any other number anyone else has put up in a single decade:




Overall NDSU is still 3rd all time in FCS/1AA history using this scoring system but in terms of playoff appearances they're well behind most of their peers at the top of this list and are gaining quickly on Montana in particular:

Fantastic list. Love it.

[MankatoBison]

There was a guy on AGS who came up with a point system for playoff success. Basically teams got anywhere from 5 points for a playoff appearance and a first round exit escalating to 90 points for a championship. I broke it down by decade and it's pretty incredible how NDSU's dominance of the 2010s blows away any other number anyone else has put up in a single decade:




Overall NDSU is still 3rd all time in FCS/1AA history using this scoring system but in terms of playoff appearances they're well behind most of their peers at the top of this list and are gaining quickly on Montana in particular:

but but but but..... I was told by people who told me they were better human beings than me, that the 2010's was the #DukesDecade !!!

[EC8CH]

There was a guy on AGS who came up with a point system for playoff success. Basically teams got anywhere from 5 points for a playoff appearance and a first round exit escalating to 90 points for a championship. I broke it down by decade and it's pretty incredible how NDSU's dominance of the 2010s blows away any other number anyone else has put up in a single decade:




Overall NDSU is still 3rd all time in FCS/1AA history using this scoring system but in terms of playoff appearances they're well behind most of their peers at the top of this list and are gaining quickly on Montana in particular:

Awesome stuff. Numerically drives my point home. The skyrocketing difference between the #1 Bison in the 2010s compared to prior decades is astounding. SDSU's number would likely be higher if not for all the early playoff pairings with NDSU. Then the list of 2nd tier teams matches with my seat of the pants list.

Really like that guys system. I agree with all of it's rankings.

[oldmantutters]

Sam Herders take on the playoff picture for everyone else:

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-...dictions-bzbz/

He tries soooooooo hard to never be an NDSU homer. Has he ever picked them? Every single year is the year SDSU will finally clip the Bison...

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[heffray]

He tries soooooooo hard to never be an NDSU homer. Has he ever picked them? Every single year is the year SDSU will finally clip the Bison...

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I know. It’s annoying. The FCS huddle guys can be JMU homers all day long but if someone went to NDSU and obviously cheers for them, they can’t because we’re sooooo dominant.

[TransAmBison]

He tries soooooooo hard to never be an NDSU homer. Has he ever picked them? Every single year is the year SDSU will finally clip the Bison...

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

I wonder if he wears special socks when he makes that prediction?

[Professor Chaos]

I wonder if he wears special socks when he makes that prediction?

Yeah, whatever Herder has been doing he should just keep doing it... although not even Jay Walker could put his kiss of death hex on the Bison by picking them all the way through the 2019 playoffs.

[heffray]

I'll put this here since I don't want to start a new thread and it will affect the MVFC at large bids... Kind of related to Sam's article, here's what the auto-bid pictures are for the rest of the conferences, and who might contend for the at larges:

Big Sky:
Weber: 2-0 (Upcoming: v NAU, @SUU, v Idaho St, @CP)
EWU: 2-1 (21-28 L @Idaho; Upcoming: v CP, @UCD, v Idaho)
UCD: 2-1 (13-18 L @Weber; Upcoming: v Idaho St, v EWU, @CP)

Big South:
Kennesaw: 3-0 (Upcoming: v Robert Mo, @Monmouth)
Gardner-Webb 2-0 (Upcoming: v Monmouth, @Charleston Southern)

CAA:
Delaware: 2-0 (Upcoming: @RI, v Albany, @Delaware St, @ Villanova
RI: 2-0 (Upcoming: v Delaware, v NH, v Maine, @Stony Brook)
JMU: 3-0 (Upcoming: @W&M, @Richmond, v Elon)
Richmond: 2-0 (Upcoming: v Elon, v JMU, @W&M)
Maine: 2-1 (0-37 L @Delaware; Upcoming: v Villanova, @RI, v NH)

MVFC:
NDSU: 5-1 (14-38 L @SIU; Upcoming: @USD, v SDSU, @UNI)
UND: 4-1 (13-34 L @NDSU; Upcoming: @YSU, v Mo St)
SDSU: 4-1 (17-28 L @UND; Upcoming: @NDSU, v USD)
Mo St: 3-4, 3-1 Conf (0-48 L @Oklahoma, 20-27 L @UCA, 24-33 L v UCA 0-25 L v NDSU; Upcoming: v SIU, @UND, v YSU)
SIU: 4-2 (21-44 L @UND, 3-44 L v SDSU; Upcoming: @Mo St, v WIU)

NEC:
Duquesne: 3-0 (Upcoming: @Bryant)
Bryant: 2-1 (19-24 L @Long Island; Upcoming: v Duquesne)

OVC:
Murray St: 4-0 (Upcoming: v East Ill, @Austin Peay, v Jax St)
Jax St: 7-1 (24-41 L @Florida St; Upcoming: v Austin Peay, @East Ill, @ Murray St)

Patriot:
Holy Cross: 1-0 (Upcoming: v Fordham, v Bucknell)
Lafayette: 1-0 (Upcoming: @Bucknell, v Lehigh)

Pioneer:
San Diego: 2-0 (Upcoming: @Presb, v Davidson, v Stetson, @Valpo)
Davidson: 2-1 (23-26 L @Elon; Upcoming: v Morehead St, @San Diego, @Presb, v Stetson)

SoCon:
VMI: 4-0 (Upcoming: @Wofford, v ETSU, v Citadel)
Chatty: 3-1 (10-13 L @WKy; Upcoming: v Mercer, @WCar, @Samford, @ETSU)
ETSU: 2-1 (13-17 L v Furman; Upcoming: v WCar, @VMI, @Mercer, v Chatty)

Southland:
Incarnate: 3-0 (Upcoming: @Nicholls, v NW St, v SHSU)
SHSU: 3-0 (Upcoming: @NW St, v McNeese, @Incarnate)
Nicholls: 3-1 (17-71 L @SHSU; Upcoming: v Incarnate, @McNeese, v SELA)

A few notes on the MVFC stuff… I added Mo St and SIU to the picture because Mo St still has a chance to win the Valley if they win out, and if a 2-win NDSU team deserves an At-Large, perhaps a 2-win SIU team would also deserve one, considering they have a convincing win against NDSU (They also have a blowout loss to SDSU, and it makes our SDSU game so much more interesting).

Looking at the rest of the country, I think Herder’s assessment of who will win each league is pretty spot on, with the exception of SDSU in the Valley, I see that as more of a coinflip than a certainty (and perhaps so does Sam, but he’s just making a pick).

With only 6 At-larges it will be interesting if they award more than one to any of the “Big 3” (MVFC, Big Sky, CAA) or if they give 1 each to Southland, SoCon, and OVC and the Big 3… Some of that will depend on if there are worthy contenders in those 3 or if there are better cases for 2 at-larges in 1 or 2 of the Big 3, but it’s going to be an interesting decision either way…