MVFC Playoff Picture

[bisonaudit]

I'd say don't blame the selection committee blame the regionalization rules the NCAA saddles them with. I just get irritated as hell every Selection Sunday when we have so many insecure complaints around here that the selection committee deliberately stacked the bracket against NDSU.

I bet I could go back to the days and weeks leading up to the the playoff selections in fall 2019 and find dozens of posts here "guaranteeing" that NDSU and SDSU would be matched up as soon as possible. 2 of the last 3 playoffs NDSU and SDSU have been on separate sides of the bracket including in 2019 and they both have been seeded in the last 4 playoffs. If you know how the selection committee sets the seeds and still think they conspire to seed NDSU and SDSU on the same side of the bracket I'm sure I can't convince you otherwise because its a full-fledged conspiracy theory. I think it would be even worse if they would manipulate the seeds to split up conference teams to different sides of the brackets, that one seed line could be the difference between hosting or going on the road in the quarters or semis and giving the better teams the homefield advantage is more important than splitting up conference teams when they have more than one seeded team IMO.

I’m not sure that’s what it is. I think most people get it. The problem with the committee is that they’re bad a deciding who deserves to be seeded, which is a big problem, and they’re bad at deciding who deserves to be in the tournament, which is a smaller problem. But the constraints from the NCAA distort the bracket about as much as the committee getting the seeds wrong.

[Twentysix]

3 weeks to go and we have 3 teams with 1 loss:
- NDSU 5-1, with a 38-7 loss to SIU (includes Fall win over UCA)
- UN_ 4-1, with a 34-13 loss to NDSU (no Fall games)
- SDUS 4-1, with a 28-17 loss to UND (no Fall games)

The remaining schedule goes like this:
Week 6:
NDSU @ USD, UN_ @ YSU, ISUr @ SDSU (cancelled)

Week 7:
SDSU @ NDSU, MSU @ UN_

Week 8:
NDSU @ UNI, UN_ @ ISUr (cancelled), USD @ SDSU

At this point it seems likely that NDSU will win at USD and UNI, with the latter being the bigger question mark. Both ISUr games are huge gifts to UN_ and SDSU (Fuck Spack), as I think they would have been tough wins. UN_ is no gimme against Youngstown or Missouri State either, but I can't see SDSU losing to USD... SO!...

To me, the season comes down to the Rabbits in the dome. If we win, we're in, if we lose... I don't know if a 2-loss Valley team gets in. I guess it would depend on some interesting scenarios with other OOC teams who won't win their auto bid. Lots of scenarios at play...

If NDSU loses to SDSU but wins the other 2, and UND and SDSU lose 1 of their 2, the we could have 3 Valley teams with 2 losses... and where does SIU fit in if they win out?

Gonnna be really interesting, but I actually think the UCA game helps us, surprisingly.

The selection committee showed their hand with SHSU's shitty teams getting at large bids riding their NC appearances. NDSU is in even with 3 losses imo, 2 losses is literally no question. Doesn't matter who the losses are to. NDSU could possibly lose all the remaining games and still get in. Never forget, this flaming pile of shit was let into the playoffs on recent brand accomplishments https://gobearkats.com/sports/football/schedule/2013 That's how this business works.

[Professor Chaos]

I’m not sure that’s what it is. I think most people get it. The problem with the committee is that they’re bad a deciding who deserves to be seeded, which is a big problem, and they’re bad at deciding who deserves to be in the tournament, which is a smaller problem. But the constraints from the NCAA distort the bracket about as much as the committee getting the seeds wrong.

If you want to criticize the seeds being wrong or the at large selections being wrong go ahead. I think for the most part their decisions have been logical when it comes to seeding and at-large selection but they've had their misses and deserve criticism for that. What grinds my gears is the complaints/criticism that the committee has some nefarious agenda to stack the bracket against NDSU which is why I used the word insecure to describe it.

[heffray]

The top two MVFC teams should never be in the same bracket. Mainly I feel sorry for the decade that SDSU has had. I would have loved more of our playoff games with them to be for the championship instead of the first or second round.

If you want to criticize the seeds being wrong or the at large selections being wrong go ahead. I think for the most part their decisions have been logical when it comes to seeding and at-large selection but they've had their misses and deserve criticism for that. What grinds my gears is the complaints/criticism that the committee has some nefarious agenda to stack the bracket against NDSU which is why I used the word insecure to describe it.

Good points, and you can blame most of the SDSU pairings on SDSU. If they played to their potential (that they show against NDSU every year), they would be a higher seed and we’d meet in the Semis or the Championship. The reason it hasn’t happened yet is because they either shit the bed in the regular season (after blowing their load against us) or shit the bed in the playoffs. It’s the Jackrabbit way.

Edit: I believe NDSU played SDSU in the Semis only once, 2018, I think?

[Professor Chaos]

The selection committee showed their hand with SHSU's shitty teams getting at large bids riding their NC appearances. NDSU is in even with 3 losses imo, 2 losses is literally no question. Doesn't matter who the losses are to. NDSU could possibly lose all the remaining games and still get in. Never forget, this flaming pile of shit was let into the playoffs on recent brand accomplishments https://gobearkats.com/sports/football/schedule/2013 That's how this business works.

If you want to pull up examples of the committee getting it wrong SHSU is not the team to use. In 2013 as an unseeded at-large they won their first round game before losing by 1 to 4th seeded Southeastern Louisiana. In 2014 they made the semis as an unseeded autobid. In 2015 they made the semis as an unseeded at-large. In 2016 they were seeded 5th despite going undefeated (and their fans howled about it) and got trucked by 4th seeded JMU in the quarters. In 2017 they made the semis as a 6th seeded at-large. In 2018 and 2019 they didn't make the playoffs.

People love to shit on SHSU because of their spectacular playoff flame outs but they've consistently outplayed their bracket position and haven't had a Jacksonville State-like flop in their first playoff game in the last decade.

[Bisonator98]

Pretty confident a 2 loss NDSU is in no matter what else happens. Now if they somehow drop a third game I'm not sure they'd even be deserving a spot. As far as a third or 4th Valley team making it I'd think the only concerning thing would be upsets to autobid favorites. If a JSU or SHSU takes a loss then those conferences might have a claim to a second or even third team as well as the MVFC. Then it comes down to politics or biases and that never seems to go well for the Valley.

[stevdock]

If you want to criticize the seeds being wrong or the at large selections being wrong go ahead. I think for the most part their decisions have been logical when it comes to seeding and at-large selection but they've had their misses and deserve criticism for that. What grinds my gears is the complaints/criticism that the committee has some nefarious agenda to stack the bracket against NDSU which is why I used the word insecure to describe it.

I agree for the most part. I'd say most of that talk though came from the one year where it sure seemed like the quality of teams on our side of the bracket was ridiculously better than the other side. Now the teams on our side didn't win when it counted, which put their fate in the committee's hands. Well that and playing SDSU so early so often, but that's also due to SDSU not winning the games they should have.

[DCBison]

If you want to pull up examples of the committee getting it wrong SHSU is not the team to use. In 2013 as an unseeded at-large they won their first round game before losing by 1 to 4th seeded Southeastern Louisiana. In 2014 they made the semis as an unseeded autobid. In 2015 they made the semis as an unseeded at-large. In 2016 they were seeded 5th despite going undefeated (and their fans howled about it) and got trucked by 4th seeded JMU in the quarters. In 2017 they made the semis as a 6th seeded at-large. In 2018 and 2019 they didn't make the playoffs.

People love to shit on SHSU because of their spectacular playoff flame outs but they've consistently outplayed their bracket position and haven't had a Jacksonville State-like flop in their first playoff game in the last decade.

Hmmmm, logic seems to check out.

[heffray]

Hmmmm, logic seems to check out.

Yeah, and there’s a JMU thread somewhere where based on win percentage in the last 10 years or so, you can argue that SHSU has been the second best team during our run (with the other contenders being EWU and the aforementioned fucktwats).

[EC8CH]

Hmmmm, logic seems to check out.

The wide gulf between NDSU at #1 and any other team in the FCS at #2 is what skews our perception of calling any other team's success good enough to be called #2. SHSU, EWU, JMU, SDSU have all been fairly consistently good and would be better if not for NDSU sucking all the oxygen out of the FCS for the past decade.