MVFC Playoff Picture

[heffray]

3 weeks to go and we have 3 teams with 1 loss:
- NDSU 5-1, with a 38-7 loss to SIU (includes Fall win over UCA)
- UN_ 4-1, with a 34-13 loss to NDSU (no Fall games)
- SDUS 4-1, with a 28-17 loss to UND (no Fall games)

The remaining schedule goes like this:
Week 6:
NDSU @ USD, UN_ @ YSU, ISUr @ SDSU (cancelled)

Week 7:
SDSU @ NDSU, MSU @ UN_

Week 8:
NDSU @ UNI, UN_ @ ISUr (cancelled), USD @ SDSU

At this point it seems likely that NDSU will win at USD and UNI, with the latter being the bigger question mark. Both ISUr games are huge gifts to UN_ and SDSU (Fuck Spack), as I think they would have been tough wins. UN_ is no gimme against Youngstown or Missouri State either, but I can't see SDSU losing to USD... SO!...

To me, the season comes down to the Rabbits in the dome. If we win, we're in, if we lose... I don't know if a 2-loss Valley team gets in. I guess it would depend on some interesting scenarios with other OOC teams who won't win their auto bid. Lots of scenarios at play...

If NDSU loses to SDSU but wins the other 2, and UND and SDSU lose 1 of their 2, the we could have 3 Valley teams with 2 losses... and where does SIU fit in if they win out?

Gonnna be really interesting, but I actually think the UCA game helps us, surprisingly.

[Professor Chaos]

Two losses should be ok. If that 2nd loss is to SDSU it'll likely be to a top 3 team so it wouldn't hurt that much. If the 2nd loss is to someone else the win over SDSU probably neutralizes it. There will be 6 at-larges selected along with the 10 autobids so I'd think anyone in the top 10 would be pretty safely in. I'd think a 6-2 or 7-2 NDSU would be in the top 10.

Seems pretty likely the MVFC gets 3 bids with the dearth of good teams out there or with as few games as a lot of teams are likely to get in.

[WeAreThePride]

I think it's reasonable to assume that NDSU gets the benefit of the doubt even with a second loss to any of the remaining schedule. The NCAA ain't keeping us out in this money pinched season. NDSU is eyeballs, especially in the playoffs.

[BisonHorns]

Two losses should be ok. If that 2nd loss is to SDSU it'll likely be to a top 3 team so it wouldn't hurt that much. If the 2nd loss it to someone else the win over SDSU probably neutralizes it. There will be 6 at-larges selected along with the 10 autobids so I'd think anyone in the top 10 would be pretty safely in. I'd think a 6-2 or 7-2 NDSU would be in the top 10.

However, I believe you are looking at this all wrong. Your information is that of a logical mind. See you have to put your head up your butt to think like the committee member. Then rationalize what is correct. So obviously JMU is tops with 2 wins, then Sam Houston because always, Jacksonville state because transfers, and as always at least two more teams with bird mascots.

[Gully]

Two losses should be ok. If that 2nd loss is to SDSU it'll likely be to a top 3 team so it wouldn't hurt that much. If the 2nd loss is to someone else the win over SDSU probably neutralizes it. There will be 6 at-larges selected along with the 10 autobids so I'd think anyone in the top 10 would be pretty safely in. I'd think a 6-2 or 7-2 NDSU would be in the top 10.

Seems pretty likely the MVFC gets 3 bids with the dearth of good teams out there.

I think this is the right take. Dom went from "the Valley will get only 2 teams in" to "the Valley will get 4 teams in" rather quickly after the NDSU win over _ND.

[heffray]

However, I believe you are looking at this all wrong. Your information is that of a logical mind. See you have to put your head up your butt to think like the committee member. Then rationalize what is correct. So obviously JMU is tops with 2 wins, then Sam Houston because always, Jacksonville state because transfers, and as always at least two more teams with bird mascots.

Such a good point, cannot underestimate committee idiocy.

[southcliffbison]

However, I believe you are looking at this all wrong. Your information is that of a logical mind. See you have to put your head up your butt to think like the committee member. Then rationalize what is correct. So obviously JMU is tops with 2 wins, then Sam Houston because always, Jacksonville state because transfers, and as always at least two more teams with bird mascots.

Excellent take !

[Professor Chaos]

I think this is the right take. Dom went from "the Valley will get only 2 teams in" to "the Valley will get 4 teams in" rather quickly after the NDSU win over _ND.

4 seems unlikely just because there's bound to be some head scratching losses to teams out of contention. I could see both UND (@YSU) and SIU (@MSU) losing this weekend and making a real mess of things although Missouri St could play themselves into contention still especially if they beat SIU this weekend. Of course this spring no one is safe from the dreaded clunker, NDSU and SDSU included, where they could lose to anyone.

And despite Bisonville's incessant bitching every year about NDSU's portion of the bracket I think the committee has treated the MVFC pretty fairly and with plenty of respect over the last few years in terms of seeding and at-large selections.

[DePereBisonFan]

And despite Bisonville's incessant bitching every year about NDSU's portion of the bracket I think the committee has treated the MVFC pretty fairly and with plenty of respect over the last few years in terms of seeding and at-large selections.

The top two MVFC teams should never be in the same bracket. Mainly I feel sorry for the decade that SDSU has had. I would have loved more of our playoff games with them to be for the championship instead of the first or second round.

[Professor Chaos]

The top two MVFC teams should never be in the same bracket. Mainly I feel sorry for the decade that SDSU has had. I would have loved more of our playoff games with them to be for the championship instead of the first or second round.

I'd say don't blame the selection committee blame the regionalization rules the NCAA saddles them with. I just get irritated as hell every Selection Sunday when we have so many insecure complaints around here that the selection committee deliberately stacked the bracket against NDSU.

I bet I could go back to the days and weeks leading up to the the playoff selections in fall 2019 and find dozens of posts here "guaranteeing" that NDSU and SDSU would be matched up as soon as possible. 2 of the last 3 playoffs NDSU and SDSU have been on separate sides of the bracket including in 2019 and they both have been seeded in the last 4 playoffs. If you know how the selection committee sets the seeds and still think they conspire to seed NDSU and SDSU on the same side of the bracket I'm sure I can't convince you otherwise because its a full-fledged conspiracy theory. I think it would be even worse if they would manipulate the seeds to split up conference teams to different sides of the brackets, that one seed line could be the difference between hosting or going on the road in the quarters or semis and giving the better teams the homefield advantage is more important than splitting up conference teams when they have more than one seeded team IMO.