2020 (COVID Style, Spring 2021) Sagarin Says

[WeAreThePride]

Sagarin moved the Big Sky teams playing games up to the top and NDSU from #1 to #10

1 20 Eastern Washington AA 82.41
2 26 Weber State AA 80.28
3 27 UC Davis AA 79.99
4 68 Idaho AA 70.39
5 69 Idaho State AA 70.37
6 73 Southern Utah AA 68.83
7 80 Delaware AA 67.62
8 83 Northern Arizona AA 67.21
9 91 Sam Houston State AA 65.48
10 98 North Dakota State AA 64.41
11 103 South Dakota State AA 61.74
12 106 Villanova AA 61.18
13 110 Montana AA 59.66
14 111 Duquesne AA 59.28
15 114 Maine AA 59.05
16 116 Cal Poly-SLO AA 58.68
17 119 Albany-NY AA 58.16
18 122 Stony Brook AA 57.47
19 123 Nicholls State AA 57.25
20 125 Princeton AA 57.00
21 128 Rhode Island AA 56.08
22 129 Montana State AA 56.05
23 134 North Dakota AA 54.52
24 135 Sacred Heart AA 54.52
25 136 Northern Iowa AA 54.42

WTF? That makes no sense? Did his computer accidentally record unplayed games as losses or something?

[Professor Chaos]

I'm guessing this was the week the weight from the 2019 results were taken out. With the lack of OOC games it's pretty much impossible for an algorithm to come up with a reliable output that rates teams across conferences. This will probably also goof the ratings up so start off next fall as well... I'd expect these won't be worth much until they get well connected with 2021 fall games which probably won't be until mid-October.

One thing to keep in mind though is Sagarin's rating regularly rates Ivy Leagues teams very high in relation to the rest of the FCS... Ivy League teams play insulated schedules every year so I'd say this is an indictment of that as well.

[Professor Chaos]

WTF? That makes no sense? Did his computer accidentally record unplayed games as losses or something?

Garbage in garbage out. Somehow this has Cal Poly rated 16th despite being 0-3. UC Davis beat them by 49 and EWU beat them by 52 so in the view of Sagarin's algorithm that was far more impressive than NDSU beating UND by 24 or SDSU beating SIU by 41.

[THEsocalledfan]

I'm guessing this was the week the weight from the 2019 results were taken out. With the lack of OOC games it's pretty much impossible for an algorithm to come up with a reliable output that rates teams across conferences. This will probably also goof the ratings up so start off next fall as well... I'd expect these won't be worth much until they get well connected with 2021 fall games which probably won't be until mid-October.

One thing to keep in mind though is Sagarin's rating regularly rates Ivy Leagues teams very high in relation to the rest of the FCS... Ivy League teams play insulated schedules every year so I'd say this is an indictment of that as well.

Playoffs will help to a limited degree.

[THEsocalledfan]

Updated top 25 per Sagarin

80 North Dakota State AA = 67.83 5 1 53.24( 145) 0 0 | 0 0 | 66.52 83 | 69.36 73 | 66.71 79 MISSOURI VALLEY
82 South Dakota State AA = 67.31 4 1 54.07( 141) 0 0 | 0 0 | 66.80 82 | 66.66 81 | 69.29 69 MISSOURI VALLEY
93 James Madison AA = 63.49 4 0 35.33( 204) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.29 100 | 64.38 92 | 63.45 94 COLONIAL
99 Eastern Washington AA = 62.58 4 1 48.89( 161) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.72 95 | 61.58 102 | 63.78 90 BIG SKY
103 Weber State AA = 61.44 4 0 49.62( 157) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.38 108 | 61.04 106 | 64.06 87 BIG SKY
104 Montana AA = 61.27 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.43 103 | 60.82 108 | 61.15 106 BIG SKY
107 Sam Houston State AA = 60.79 4 0 41.15( 190) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.81 101 | 58.06 118 | 64.10 86 SOUTHLAND
109 Northern Iowa AA = 60.01 3 3 53.18( 146) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.89 112 | 61.19 105 | 56.87 118 MISSOURI VALLEY
113 North Dakota AA = 59.34 4 1 56.10( 133) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.74 113 | 57.57 121 | 61.72 102 MISSOURI VALLEY
115 Delaware AA = 59.04 3 0 45.83( 170) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.20 109 | 55.71 128 | 63.38 95 COLONIAL
116 Princeton AA = 58.72 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.82 116 | 58.27 117 | 58.69 109 IVY LEAGUE
117 Montana State AA = 57.80 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.89 119 | 57.36 122 | 57.81 113 BIG SKY
121 UC Davis AA = 57.47 3 2 52.33( 150) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.90 118 | 56.92 124 | 56.95 117 BIG SKY
124 Villanova AA = 56.63 2 1 46.59( 167) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.88 125 | 56.78 127 | 57.23 116 COLONIAL
127 Dartmouth AA = 55.92 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.97 124 | 55.49 129 | 56.00 119 IVY LEAGUE
131 Towson AA = 54.96 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.98 131 | 54.53 135 | 55.07 125 COLONIAL
132 Illinois State AA = 54.89 1 3 55.46( 137) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.51 133 | 56.78 126 | 50.59 145 MISSOURI VALLEY
134 Kennesaw State AA = 53.92 4 0 36.80( 200) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.18 136 | 53.83 138 | 55.02 127 BIG SOUTH
135 Southern Illinois AA = 53.82 4 3 57.30( 127) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.98 137 | 53.68 139 | 55.22 124 MISSOURI VALLEY
136 Sacramento State AA = 53.77 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.77 134 | 53.35 140 | 53.92 131 BIG SKY
140 Richmond AA = 52.98 3 0 41.51( 189) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.73 139 | 51.85 149 | 55.27 122 COLONIAL
141 Jacksonville State AA = 52.77 8 2 43.55( 180) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.13 143 | 51.96 147 | 55.24 123 OHIO VALLEY
142 Central Arkansas AA = 52.74 5 4 53.10( 147) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.27 142 | 53.15 141 | 52.10 140 SOUTHLAND
146 Youngstown State AA = 51.41 1 5 57.04( 129) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.50 145 | 52.14 146 | 48.68 162 MISSOURI VALLEY
147 Idaho AA = 51.18 2 2 52.82( 149) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.11 146 | 50.77 150 | 51.48 141 BIG SKY

[mtoutfitter]

Updated top 25 per Sagarin

80 North Dakota State AA = 67.83 5 1 53.24( 145) 0 0 | 0 0 | 66.52 83 | 69.36 73 | 66.71 79 MISSOURI VALLEY
93 James Madison AA = 63.49 4 0 35.33( 204) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.29 100 | 64.38 92 | 63.45 94 COLONIAL
99 Eastern Washington AA = 62.58 4 1 48.89( 161) 0 0 | 0 0 | 62.72 95 | 61.58 102 | 63.78 90 BIG SKY
103 Weber State AA = 61.44 4 0 49.62( 157) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.38 108 | 61.04 106 | 64.06 87 BIG SKY
104 Montana AA = 61.27 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.43 103 | 60.82 108 | 61.15 106 BIG SKY
107 Sam Houston State AA = 60.79 4 0 41.15( 190) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.81 101 | 58.06 118 | 64.10 86 SOUTHLAND
109 Northern Iowa AA = 60.01 3 3 53.18( 146) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.89 112 | 61.19 105 | 56.87 118 MISSOURI VALLEY
113 North Dakota AA = 59.34 4 1 56.10( 133) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.74 113 | 57.57 121 | 61.72 102 MISSOURI VALLEY
115 Delaware AA = 59.04 3 0 45.83( 170) 0 0 | 0 0 | 60.20 109 | 55.71 128 | 63.38 95 COLONIAL
116 Princeton AA = 58.72 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.82 116 | 58.27 117 | 58.69 109 IVY LEAGUE
117 Montana State AA = 57.80 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.89 119 | 57.36 122 | 57.81 113 BIG SKY
121 UC Davis AA = 57.47 3 2 52.33( 150) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.90 118 | 56.92 124 | 56.95 117 BIG SKY
124 Villanova AA = 56.63 2 1 46.59( 167) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.88 125 | 56.78 127 | 57.23 116 COLONIAL
127 Dartmouth AA = 55.92 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.97 124 | 55.49 129 | 56.00 119 IVY LEAGUE
131 Towson AA = 54.96 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.98 131 | 54.53 135 | 55.07 125 COLONIAL
132 Illinois State AA = 54.89 1 3 55.46( 137) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.51 133 | 56.78 126 | 50.59 145 MISSOURI VALLEY
134 Kennesaw State AA = 53.92 4 0 36.80( 200) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.18 136 | 53.83 138 | 55.02 127 BIG SOUTH
135 Southern Illinois AA = 53.82 4 3 57.30( 127) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.98 137 | 53.68 139 | 55.22 124 MISSOURI VALLEY
136 Sacramento State AA = 53.77 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.77 134 | 53.35 140 | 53.92 131 BIG SKY
140 Richmond AA = 52.98 3 0 41.51( 189) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.73 139 | 51.85 149 | 55.27 122 COLONIAL
141 Jacksonville State AA = 52.77 8 2 43.55( 180) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.13 143 | 51.96 147 | 55.24 123 OHIO VALLEY
142 Central Arkansas AA = 52.74 5 4 53.10( 147) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.27 142 | 53.15 141 | 52.10 140 SOUTHLAND
146 Youngstown State AA = 51.41 1 5 57.04( 129) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.50 145 | 52.14 146 | 48.68 162 MISSOURI VALLEY
147 Idaho AA = 51.18 2 2 52.82( 149) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.11 146 | 50.77 150 | 51.48 141 BIG SKY
148 Harvard AA = 50.82 0 0 0.00( 0) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.76 150 | 50.40 151 | 51.08 143 IVY LEAGUE

Where's SDSU?

[Hammerhead]

Where's SDSU?

He must have missed a line since they are #82 and 2nd among FCS teams.

[CyPanth]

Where's SDSU?

Where's UNI?









Oh, I see them, but how they can be so high?

[THEsocalledfan]

He must have missed a line since they are #82 and 2nd among FCS teams.

correct; fixed.

[NDSU92]

Where's UNI?









Oh, I see them, but how they can be so high?

UNI is always overrated in Sagarin. Must be all those wins over NDSU from ‘09 and ‘10