Very true. Recruiting and drafting are both calculated guesses. Players get passed over or selected wrong for many reasons. Some don't adjust or respond to the demands of college football or college in general. Some develop a little later in life.
A classmate of my son was huge in middle school and ended up 6'8"but almost 400 lb. He wasn't a great OL in high school, just big. But IU offered him because you can't teach size. They got him on their weight program and he dropped down to 360. He also developed and was starting by his redshirt sophomore year and going into his senior year this Fall he's likely to get drafted. He could have easily been a bust but they took a chance and it paid off.
Mistakes are made all the time in both recruiting and drafting and it's silly to be critical thinking you could do better.
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