NDSU @ Oregon Predictions

[QB11SD]

Agree with this. Fair to stick to your guns, QB. Just thought the needle might move a teensy bit... can you give me 3 points? Would make me feel better. Just consider it is all I’m askin...

It’s a first game, who knows how sloppy these teams will be coming off a strange offseason. My prediction is no better than anyone else’s.


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[bison22]

You’ve beat some teams with great players, Iowa always has guys getting drafted. And if we were going to line up and try to play bully ball I wouldn’t be predicting much separation. You’re not going to line up and just beat the piss out of NDSU in the box playing basic 1990’s football. If I’m NDSU that’s exactly what I want. I want the game to be about grit, fundamentals and technique. Not about speed, space and athletes. NDSU does as good of a job as anyone nationally maximizing the tools and skill sets of their players.

IMO there does come a point where Jimmies and Joes when deployed at a high level are just a bit too much to overcome with heart and hard work. I don’t expect anyone here to agree or admit that Oregon is more talented than the P5 teams you’ve beat. I know we come from what is perceived nationally as a “soft conference”. I’m just saying (and this will bear out over the next 3-4 NFL drafts) that this team will be the most talented from top to bottom that NDSU has faced. Maybe that talent isn’t enough and Oregon loses at home but we don’t have a couple players sprinkled across the starting 22 like ISU, KSU and Iowa. Everyone who sees the field is a player.

The biggest difference between this team and even good Oregon teams of the past is that there isn’t that one or two position groups that are just super average or mediocre. The last 2.5 years has been the most impressive roster transformation I’ve seen at Oregon and it’s not close. This is our best team from a top to bottom from roster composition/talent and depth standpoint.


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Yep I have said this for years. We matched up very well vs KSTATE, IOWA STATE, IOWA, MINNESOTA because they thought they could overpower us. If Oregon is smart they will try to get their skill players in space. Very tough matchup for Bison if that happens.

[QB11SD]

I'm glad you're back for two reasons: 1.) You're knowledgeable about the game and have taken the time to look at some of our game recordings from last year, and 2.) A bit more of this banter makes me excited because I feel like there's a good chance of the game still happening. Just know that you're being penalized because of dozens of previous posters from FBS schools that didn't respect their guest status on this site and who were also blinded by their biases about the level of play. Because of that, some of the guys are pretty quick to get chippy to newcomers.

The above quote is laughable by many of us here. We've had a decades-long string of really good OL play and this year's Rams (that's our name for them for at least 40 years, if not longer) are almost certainly the best group of all...although admittedly, our 2013 team had a couple of linemen on it that are still playing in the NFL. Your defense is going to be very, very good but just know that this will be one of the best offensive lines that you'll meet in 2020, certainly better than the bottom 2/3 of the PAC12. Your guys are going to get through at times but to say that they'll "win the LOS by a considerable margin" just doesn't track. If that happens, we'll get blown out. If the Bison win the game, it will be on the backs of those 5/7 guys.

1. Thanks, appreciate that.
2. Oregon’s players are reporting back to start quarantine and antibody testing id be shocked if we aren’t playing the game. Question is how many fans will be there (if any).

3. I understand that. Here is my most objective possible take on our DL/(edge) and how I feel about the matchup with NDSU. Apologize if this gets long winded but I want to be detailed.

Scheme: Oregon runs a hybrid front that can stem (shift the front) in and out of a 4 and 3 man front. Depending on what Personnel grouping NDSU uses most frequently we will more often than not be in a 3-3-5/4-2-5 nickel group. If NDSU plays a lot of 12 Pers we will probably be more base in fronts (34/43). But that will only be early downs. The starters will most likely be as follows with a couple notes including their depth.

Interior (hand in dirt every snap):
Jordon Scott: 6’1 (maybe not) 330.
He plays the 0/1tech and doesn’t shade much wider than a 3 and even that is rare. He’s your fire hydrant block eater. He doesn’t offer much in terms of pass rush potential because his length isn’t great but he is a bitch to move off his spot. Massive lower body with good initial quickness he’s a 4 year starter and extremely quick to diagnose blocks. He’s the best pure interior run defender in the Pac-12.

Austin Faliou: 6’3 290
He plays anywhere from a 3-5 tech, primarily shade or head up on the guard because he doesn’t have ideal length to anchor and 2 gap with tackles. High motor, very technically refined, tough, decent quickness but really he’s pretty average relative. He’s been a really solid contributor since he was a true freshman but he’s not much of an explosive pass rusher either. He can beat really heavy footed guards but most of his pass rush production comes from motor plays.
Tough and consistent in the run game.

Brandon Dorlus: 6’3 290
This is where it gets fun for Duck fans. He’s a true sophomore from Florida who played lights out down the stretch last year esp against Utah and Wisconsin. Explosive twitchy and long. From everything I’ve heard he’s likely to be our best interior player this year. Was really just scratching the surface last year.

Popo Aumauve: 6’4 310
Rs JR this coming year and quietly had a great sophomore year. Of all the interior guys I actually thought he made the biggest jump in 2019. Great length, really strong, can penetrate too. Of the guys that rotate on the nose he’s the most effective pass rusher and there’s really not much drop off from Scott in the run game.

Edge:
Kayvon Thibodeaux
6’5 250
Freak. Most bendy and explosive rusher we’ve ever had and he plays like he has a rocket implanted in his ass. Rare get off, can flatten and close. Plays with crazy motor too which is rare for kids of his talent level. Will 100% be a 1st round pick in 2022.

Made Funa
6’2 260
Not as flashy as KT but as a fellow true sophomore he was our best edge defender against the run. Strong, strong kid and a world class rugby player. Great leverage and bend. Not as twitchy but still effective off the edge particularly with power.

Lynchpin to the whole thing is Jevon Holland. He’s a nickel/safety and from a pure football perspective is as good as we’ve had recently in the backfield. He has tons of versatility due to tremendous instincts. He can play at all 3 levels of the defense and is a great tackler in addition to being able to carry TE’s in coverage or stay with a slot. He’s getting some love as a potential first round pick in 2021 but IMO he’s not a 1st round level athlete. He’s a good enough athlete to be an elite college defender but he doesn’t project to the NFL at that high of a level just from a measurable athleticism standpoint. He’s probably a late day 2 early day 3 guy.

This group also has more depth but we don’t need to get into that. No scrubs and really even the less exciting guys are unbelievably consistent and there is enough splash talent sprinkled in the group that I think the interior (particularly NDSU’s) guards are going to struggle to get to the second level. Oregon is loaded at Linebacker too and everyone back there can really run.


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[QB11SD]

Yep I have said this for years. We matched up very well vs KSTATE, IOWA STATE, IOWA, MINNESOTA because they thought they could overpower us. If Oregon is smart they will try to get their skill players in space. Very tough matchup for Bison if that happens.

I’ll find the video for those who care but the Joe Moorhead offense is about numbers, space and grass. Getting numbers advantages in the run game using RPO/ZR, attacking space based on alignment and then a modified west coast passing game that likes to attack vertical.


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[Kevin]

This group also has more depth but we don’t need to get into that. No scrubs and really even the less exciting guys are unbelievably consistent and there is enough splash talent sprinkled in the group that I think the interior (particularly NDSU’s) guards are going to struggle to get to the second level. Oregon is loaded at Linebacker too and everyone back there can really run.

Ducks are supposed to fly not run.

No one is afraid of a running duck.

In fact, most people aren't even afraid of a flying duck.

In fact Scottie's algorithm didn't account for the difference between a herd of Bison in physical, mortal kombat with a flock of ducks. When you readjust accordingly the line changes to:

NDSU Bison: 375
Oregon Mighty Mallards: 12

I'm not really sure how that resulted in you guys scoring more than the original calculation but I'm guessing it has something to do with the fatigue we'll suffer from scoring so many touchdowns.

See u in September.

Maybe.

[Bisonator98]

The only other coordinators in the conversation are Graham Harrell (USC OC), Morgan Scalley (Utah DC) and Pete Kwitkowski (UW DC)


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That's not saying much. Moorhead got his yankee ass fired at Mississippi State. You act like he's the second coming of Chip Kelly. Avalos has been there 1 year, jury's still out on him. Time will tell but you talk like they are locks to win the CFP.

[heffray]

It’s a first game, who knows how sloppy these teams will be coming off a strange offseason. My prediction is no better than anyone else’s.


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Right, but 22 points is above the spread at this point. I understand confidence in your team winning, but taking the FBS team point spread vs NDSU has not worked out for literally every FBS team we have played since our move. I will be shocked if we lose by more than 2 scores.

[QB11SD]

That's not saying much. Moorhead got his yankee ass fired at Mississippi State. You act like he's the second coming of Chip Kelly. Avalos has been there 1 year, jury's still out on him. Time will tell but you talk like they are locks to win the CFP.

No I talk like they are defending Rose Bowl/Pac-12 Champs, hired a former OC or the year who took a top 120 Offense and made it top 5 in 2 years. Getting fired from Mississippi State for finishing behind Auburn, Alabama, LSU and TA&M is the least of my worries. Considering all of the context surrounding those programs. Avalos is very likely to get HC offers next year.


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[MankatoBison]

Oregon might beat us 9/10 times... But Id say the FIRST game is at least a 50/50 shot we win. History looks upon us very favorably.

Remember most these Oregon kids are 3-4-5 star recruits who have egos large enough to make Donald Trump blush. THE OHIO STATE is immediately after us. You cannot tell me that the hot shot, get everything handed to them, divas that the Oregon depth chart is RIFE with, wont over look NDSU.

If IOWA overlooks us, there is no way in Hell Oregon Doesnt. Not a chance. The look-ahead factor is HUGE and Id say is worth at least 6pts. Having a capacity limited Autzen is probably another 3.

[OrygunBison]

... the hot shot, get everything handed to them, divas that the Oregon depth chart is RIFE with...

That's not really what Oregon is anymore. Really, they haven't been that way for awhile.