NDSU @ Oregon Predictions

[QB11SD]

Perhaps I didn’t emphasize the light-hearted tone I intended with my post.

My comment was more about the outcome of the game than QB play. But I will say that before you went silent on this board, Lance was not yet projected as a top 5 QB prospect in next years’ draft... I would THINK that would alter your score prediction a bit, but it still looks like a lopsided victory by your estimation.

That’s all I was pointing out.

This is going to get taken the wrong way, likely intentionally by some here but my prediction is the same as it always was. Because it was never about Lance’s skill level. He’s very, very good. That was obvious from the first NDSU game I watched. It’s more about the other 10 on the field with him and how I feel they matchup. NDSU has some good players like Watson and Radunz but man for man esp when considering depth UO will have a pretty sizeable talent advantage.

Again won’t be popular to say here, I understand that. UO likely wins the LOS by a considerable margin against the NDSU OL.


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[NDSU92]

This is going to get taken the wrong way, likely intentionally by some here but my prediction is the same as it always was. Because it was never about Lance’s skill level. He’s very, very good. That was obvious from the first NDSU game I watched. It’s more about the other 10 on the field with him and how I feel they matchup. NDSU has some good players like Watson and Radunz but man for man esp when considering depth UO will have a pretty sizeable talent advantage.

Again won’t be popular to say here, I understand that. UO likely wins the LOS by a considerable margin against the NDSU OL.


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Just like Kansas State and Iowa did

[QB11SD]

Just like Kansas State and Iowa did

Oregon doesn’t have the anchor of an antiquated offense that plays directly into the strength of NDSU as a program. Plus this Oregon front 7 is better than anything either of those teams fielded.


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[bison22]

This is going to get taken the wrong way, likely intentionally by some here but my prediction is the same as it always was. Because it was never about Lance’s skill level. He’s very, very good. That was obvious from the first NDSU game I watched. It’s more about the other 10 on the field with him and how I feel they matchup. NDSU has some good players like Watson and Radunz but man for man esp when considering depth UO will have a pretty sizeable talent advantage.

Again won’t be popular to say here, I understand that. UO likely wins the LOS by a considerable margin against the NDSU OL.


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I agree with you QB11. Man for Man Oregon will definitely be the best on paper. It usually always is in our FBS matchups. But it's just the Bison style of play in where our fanbase feels confident we can matchup against anybody and how can you argue it? Look at all the FBS teams and NFL caliber players we have beaten:

Antonio Brown and JJ Watt
Tyler Lockett and baby gronk
Alan Lazard
CJ Beathard, George Kittle, Desmond King, Noah Fant, TJ Hockenson (HOLY TE's BATMAN!!!)


No doubt this will be our toughest test though and will be the best defense Lance has ever faced.

[heffray]

I agree with you QB11. Man for Man Oregon will definitely be the best on paper. It usually always is in our FBS matchups. But it's just the Bison style of play in where our fanbase feels confident we can matchup against anybody and how can you argue it? Look at all the FBS teams and NFL caliber players we have beaten:

Antonio Brown and JJ Watt
Tyler Lockett and baby gronk
Alan Lazard
CJ Beathard, George Kittle, Desmond King, Noah Fant, TJ Hockenson (HOLY TE's BATMAN!!!)


No doubt this will be our toughest test though and will be the best defense Lance has ever faced.

Agree with this. Fair to stick to your guns, QB. Just thought the needle might move a teensy bit... can you give me 3 points? Would make me feel better. Just consider it is all I’m askin...

[OrygunBison]

UO likely wins the LOS by a considerable margin against the NDSU OL.

I'm glad you're back for two reasons: 1.) You're knowledgeable about the game and have taken the time to look at some of our game recordings from last year, and 2.) A bit more of this banter makes me excited because I feel like there's a good chance of the game still happening. Just know that you're being penalized because of dozens of previous posters from FBS schools that didn't respect their guest status on this site and who were also blinded by their biases about the level of play. Because of that, some of the guys are pretty quick to get chippy to newcomers.

The above quote is laughable by many of us here. We've had a decades-long string of really good OL play and this year's Rams (that's our name for them for at least 40 years, if not longer) are almost certainly the best group of all...although admittedly, our 2013 team had a couple of linemen on it that are still playing in the NFL. Your defense is going to be very, very good but just know that this will be one of the best offensive lines that you'll meet in 2020, certainly better than the bottom 2/3 of the PAC12. Your guys are going to get through at times but to say that they'll "win the LOS by a considerable margin" just doesn't track. If that happens, we'll get blown out. If the Bison win the game, it will be on the backs of those 5/7 guys.

[Twincitybizon]

This is going to get taken the wrong way, likely intentionally by some here but my prediction is the same as it always was. Because it was never about Lance’s skill level. He’s very, very good. That was obvious from the first NDSU game I watched. It’s more about the other 10 on the field with him and how I feel they matchup. NDSU has some good players like Watson and Radunz but man for man esp when considering depth UO will have a pretty sizeable talent advantage.

Again won’t be popular to say here, I understand that. UO likely wins the LOS by a considerable margin against the NDSU OL.


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Three guys from our o line are definitely being scouted by the NFL. C, both OTs. I don't think it'll be that lopsided on the LOS. Not sure our d line can match your o line though. That's a worse matchup imo

[Kevin]

Oregon should use the COVID nightmare to get out of this game or their 2020 is going to get a lot worse.

Official point prediction from the algorithm Scottie and I developed last weekend (over the course of 100 simulations) is:

NDSU Bison: 71.13
Oregon Fighting Ducks: 8.02

Buy those spreads bb.

[QB11SD]

I agree with you QB11. Man for Man Oregon will definitely be the best on paper. It usually always is in our FBS matchups. But it's just the Bison style of play in where our fanbase feels confident we can matchup against anybody and how can you argue it? Look at all the FBS teams and NFL caliber players we have beaten:

Antonio Brown and JJ Watt
Tyler Lockett and baby gronk
Alan Lazard
CJ Beathard, George Kittle, Desmond King, Noah Fant, TJ Hockenson (HOLY TE's BATMAN!!!)


No doubt this will be our toughest test though and will be the best defense Lance has ever faced.

You’ve beat some teams with great players, Iowa always has guys getting drafted. And if we were going to line up and try to play bully ball I wouldn’t be predicting much separation. You’re not going to line up and just beat the piss out of NDSU in the box playing basic 1990’s football. If I’m NDSU that’s exactly what I want. I want the game to be about grit, fundamentals and technique. Not about speed, space and athletes. NDSU does as good of a job as anyone nationally maximizing the tools and skill sets of their players.

IMO there does come a point where Jimmies and Joes when deployed at a high level are just a bit too much to overcome with heart and hard work. I don’t expect anyone here to agree or admit that Oregon is more talented than the P5 teams you’ve beat. I know we come from what is perceived nationally as a “soft conference”. I’m just saying (and this will bear out over the next 3-4 NFL drafts) that this team will be the most talented from top to bottom that NDSU has faced. Maybe that talent isn’t enough and Oregon loses at home but we don’t have a couple players sprinkled across the starting 22 like ISU, KSU and Iowa. Everyone who sees the field is a player.

The biggest difference between this team and even good Oregon teams of the past is that there isn’t that one or two position groups that are just super average or mediocre. The last 2.5 years has been the most impressive roster transformation I’ve seen at Oregon and it’s not close. This is our best team from a top to bottom from roster composition/talent and depth standpoint.


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[QB11SD]

Three guys from our o line are definitely being scouted by the NFL. C, both OTs. I don't think it'll be that lopsided on the LOS. Not sure our d line can match your o line though. That's a worse matchup imo

NDSU has good tackles. I’ll just say this. Austin Jackson was drafted in the first round by the Miami Dolphins from USC. He was absolutely abused by Kayvon Thibodeaux in pass pro and that was KT as an 18 year old true freshman. That kid is different than anyone we’ve ever had. He will be moved all over and we have a nice group of complimentary players who can fit our multiple personnel groups.

It’s not about how the top end of the NDSU talent pyramid fares in this game I expect that your tackles will be as good/better than most teams on our schedule. It’s how the bottom 1/3 of the guys you play perform. Do they step up and play competitive or are they overwhelmed. The top end of the NDSU depth chart can compete at a P5 level without a doubt. It’s how the rest of the roster does that will decide the margin and outcome IMO.

The biggest mismatch in this game is the Oregon OT’s against the NDSU Edge defenders. I don’t think the 40 front scheme will do them any favors either.


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