Big 12 Tournament

[Big Bird]

NCAA tournament allocations were divvied out to the conferences in the last hour. The Big 12 comfortably received the 2nd most allocations behind the Big Ten, with 54 total allocations. The allocations by weight are:
125: 4, Pich, Schwarm, Mackall, Vega
133: 8, Bridges, Cam, Madrigal, Lamont, Small, Schwartz, Skudlarczyk, Price?
141: 5, Demas, Blockhus, Parker, Hone, Lloren
149: 5, Boo, Thomsen, Pohlmeyer, Degen, Alirez
157: 5, Carr, Sheets, Thomas, Franek, Wright
165: 4, Wittlake, Fogarty, Cook, Meneweather
174: 5, Steiert, Mantanona, Colbray, Smith, Hastings,
184: 5, Lujan, Carlson, Montalvo, Clothier, Coleman
197: 6, Adams, Sloan, Geer, Woodley, Buchanon, Orndorff?/Seeley?
HWT 7, Orndorff, Hokit, Gremmel, Isley, Robertson, Andrews, Metz

For our guys:
125- Midkiff did not earn one and the other fringe guys didn't earn one for the B12. Midkiff did finish at #31 in the coaches panel and Flores was #29, but both missed the RPI. Midkiff beat Flores and if the fact that he is ranked bodes well for his at large chances if he finishes 5th or 6th at B12s.
133- The 8th spot is a surprise, Price fell out of the coaches panel/RPI, but he is most likely to have earned one.
141- Hone and Lloren are beatable. Droegemueller has a chance.
149- Jensen finished 30th and missed out. Hogue from West Virgina finished 32nd in RPI. It would've been ideal for Van Maanen if the conference got another couple spots, but oh well.
157- Krueger's late season losses cost the B12 a spot, but it is hard to see Franek finishing outside of the top 5.
165- Kiussis, Kemp, Straw, and Yant were all in the rankings or RPI but didn't make it. 4 allocations is really light for a very deep weight.
174- Bastian and Hemauer are both deserving of receiving allocations, but didn't. 5 is way too light for this weight and really hurts Weber's chances. Had there been 7, I would give Weber a 50-50 chance.
184- Samuelson should have earned one for the conference and finished ranked in both. Cressell has a minimal chance.
197- Either Orndorff or Seely didn't earn a spot, despite being in both rankings. Shapiro and Eaton didn't either, and Shapiro was ranked instead of Eaton...despite Eaton having just beat him last week. B12 got screwed here and it really hurts Cordell.
HWT- Went as expected. Ngati was the only borderline guy and he didn't win enough. Metz is better than all the guys behind him and hasn't shown he's able to compete with any of the top guys...except the #1 seed Orndorff.

https://www.ncaa.com/news/wrestling/...a-di-wrestling

Overall, the coaches panel in particular was really poorly done. I've never been on board with letting various ranking sources get together and hammer it out, but I'm on board now. The coaches clearly don't pay attention to the results throughout the year (NDSU also didn't receive a single vote in the NWCA top 25, despite hammering Stanford and Stanford remained in the rankings). The 197 and 174 allocations most hurt NDSUs chances of guys qualifying.

[Big Bird]

Brackets won't be out for a week, but we should have 3 guys who have a really good shot at making the B12 finals.

Fogarty should have a tough quarterfinal vs a Straw/Yant/Kemp/Kiussis (Kemp worries me the most), before having Meneweather. Meneweather lost close matches to McFadden and Wittlake, with Wittlake being his only B12 loss. Cook has lost to both Moody and Wittlake, so he should be the #4 seed. I expect Fogarty to win his first two before meeting Wittlake in the finals. That'll be a battle and he'll have to do well on his feet, because nobody has really turned Wittlake all year.

I thought Franek was a shoe in for the 2 seed, and then Sheets went and beat Kaleb Young of Iowa. Franek SHOULD still be the 2 seed, but NDSU rarely gets the benefit of the doubt. Sheets has the best win, but has lost vs Thomas, Carr, and the UNI backup, while Franek has only lost against Carr and beat Thomas. As long as Franek doesn't have Krueger round 1, he should cruise into the semis vs Thomas. I think he wins that and then meets Carr in the finals.

133 will be a mess to seed and there are 9 or 10 guys capable of beating anyone. I would seed it Lamont, Bridges, Cam, Wittcraft, Schwartz, Madrigal, Small, Skudlraczyk. That would have Cam facing Madrigal, who is pretty even with Cam, and then a probable matchup vs Bridges to make the finals. This is by far the deepest weight in the B12. Cam could realistically finish anywhere from 1-8 and any of the top 8 (assuming Small is healthy) is capable of winning the title.

Outside of those three, it is far less certain how many will place high.

At 125, Midkiff could be seeded anywhere from 4-6. He has beaten Vega twice, but lost to Koelzer. Koelzer lost to Vega, and Flores on the year. Since Midkiff has the best record in head to head, I'd seed him 4th, Vega 5th, and Koelzer 6th, Moody 7th, and Flores 8th. It should be a really tight battle among the 4-8 seeds to claim that final spot, but Midkiff will be seeded to do it. If Midkiff were to get 5th behind Vega, he would probably have a good chance of an at large berth to NCAAs. Top 4 is ideal, but top 5 might get it done.

Droegemueller could be seeded anywhere from 6-10 at 141. He beat Peterson but lost to Carlson 3 times. Peterson beat Rea. Carlson lost to Rea. Sandoval split with Peterson. I would seed them 6. Carlson, 7. Rea, 8. Droegemueller, 9. Peterson, 10. Sandoval. These guys are all close and any can beat Lloren or Hone.

JVM could be seeded anywhere from 8-11, as those guys have taken turns beating each other. I would seed JVM 8th, Martinez 9th, Oliver 10th, and Hunsacker 11th. I'd rather JVM was the 10th seed and see Jensen, then Pohlmeyer. At the 8 seed, he'd have Martinez, then Boo. As a 10 seed, he'd have a viable path to the semifinals.

At 174, Weber is tghe 9 seed at best and 12 seed at worst. I'd seed him 9th or 10th, and actually prefer for him to be the 10th seed.

Cressell is the 10 seed and a long shot to place. If he wins a match, I'll be satisfied.

Eaton got hurt by the B12 not getting as many bids as they should have. Eaton should be locked into the 8 seed and have Shapiro in round one, and then undefeated Adams. My hope is that Eaton would then have Seely or Orndorff, as he's beaten both before. He was right with Buchanon too, and that would be an ok matchup. I just don't want him to have Woodley, Sloan, or Geer.

Metz seems like a very safe bet for 7th. All of the guys above him have had little trouble with him, and he has done well vs everybody below him.

[RadioBison]

Any thoughts on whether OSU will go with one of the football players at 285?

[harleycowboy]

The bigger football player Martin went back to football workouts. I don't think either of the football players wrestling at Big 12.

[larson311]

Pre-seeds are out https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sit...d_Brackets.pdf

Weigh: Allocations, Pre-Seeds
125: 4, #4 Midkiff
133: 8, #3 Sykora
141: 5, #11 Droegemueller
149: 5, #7 Jaden Van Maanen
157: 5, #2 Franek
165: 4, #2 Fogarty
174: 5, #8 Weber
184: 5, #7 Cressell
197: 6, #8 Eaton
HWT 7, #7 Metz

[Christopher Moen]

Pre-seeds are out https://s3.amazonaws.com/sidearm.sit...d_Brackets.pdf

Weigh: Allocations, Pre-Seeds
125: 4, #4 Midkiff
133: 8, #3 Sykora
141: 5, #11 Droegemueller
149: 5, #7 Jaden Van Maanen
157: 5, #2 Franek
165: 4, #2 Fogarty
174: 5, #8 Weber
184: 5, #7 Cressell
197: 6, #8 Eaton
HWT 7, #7 Metz

I can see Fogarty winning his bracket. Metz, despite being the seventh seed, could do the same. At heavyweight, not a whole lot separates most of the seeded guys.

[PaBizon]

Wrestling to seed Sends five to Minneapolis which seems about right.

[Big Bird]

Hopefully there aren't changes to the brackets, because the current brackets set up very well for NDSU guys.

125- Great spot for Midkiff to be in. As the 4 seed, he gets a rematch with Jace Koelzer to make the semifinals. He was beating Koelzer and lost a late scramble to lose the match. I think he should win this time around. Making the semis guarantees him at least 6th place and would have him likely facing Moody or Vega to make the 3rd place match, which would guarantee him a trip to NCAAs.

133- Don't really understand the justification for Bridges over Lamont as the 1 seed, but oh well. Cam will have a really tough opening match with Reece Witcraft, but its a matchup I do like for Cam. I expect him to win and have the winner of Lamont and Skudlarczyk. Lamont is super physical, which is not the best matchup with Cam. Price and Saenz are the two unseeded guys who are really tough matchups, so good that Cam didn't draw one of them.

141- Coaches got it wrong with the 8 seed. Sandoval split with Peterson (winning the most recent one) and Dylan also beat Peterson. Dylan drawing Parker sucks, but he had long odds regardless. Had he been drawn into the spot against Blockhus, he would have had a realistic shot to make the semi finals.

149- JVM as the 7 seed puts him in a great spot to make a run. He'll have Pohlmeyer to make the semis, and he has competed well with him. Not sure how JVM even got the 7 seed though, as Jensen beat him.

157- Franek got seeded where he should, and will likely have a dangerous matchup vs Krewger in the quarters. After that, I think he beats Sheets to make the finals.

165 is very deep and Fogarty will have no easy matches. He'll either have a slick youngster in Kemp, or a veteran who has given him trouble in the past in Kiussus. After that, he'd have the winner of Straw and Meneweather. Fogarty should be heavily favored to make the finals, but it is far from a given. He can certainly win this bracket though.

174- For an unseeded guy, I think Weber is in a great spot. Smith is an AA, but De La Riva beat him handily earlier this year. Smith typically doesn't get in upper body situations either, so maybe Weber can make him uncomfortable and put him on his back. If he gets by Smith, he'd have Bastian, who is solid, but not an offensive dynamo. He's unlikely to qualify, but he has a chance.

184- Drawing Roberts gives Cressell a chance for an upset. Any win throughout the tournament for Cressell would be a positive.

197- Eaton should win his first match, but then would have Adams. Cordell is in an ok spot, and will likely have two chances to beat a Buchanon, Seeley, and Orndorff type to make NCAAs.

HWT- Need to take Gremmel down to make the semis. I see Metz as a strong bet for 7th place.

[RadioBison]

I was assuming this would be on Flowrestling, but I see it is actually on ESPN+ this year. I'll have to re-subscribe for a month. The wrestling should start at 11 AM Central on Saturday.

[RadioBison]

Can you guys find the live brackets?