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Thread: JMU Post-Game Thoughts & Discussion

  1. #441
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    Default Re: JMU Post-Game Thoughts & Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by NDSUBowler View Post
    This is most definitely wrong.

    In a spot where you are down 15, always go for 2 first. If you go for 1 right away, what are you playing for? A last second td where you are 50/50 to tie or lose with no time left? You have no incentive to rush it since best you can do is tie and hope other team doesnt have time to score.

    If you go for 2 and make it, you are in same scenario as above except instead of a 50/50 chance at tie with td, its 95% (or 50/50 chance for WIN if you go for 2 again)

    If you go for 2 and miss it at 50/50, now you know you need to rush your next score because you need one more.

    Limiting coinflips at end of games (a 2pt conversion) and knowing exactly what pace you need to play is by far the most important thing.

    Going for 1 after first td is by FAR the worst decision and just another reason why JMU was outmatched on the coaching front.
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  2. #442
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    89MTBISON is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: JMU Post-Game Thoughts & Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by NDSUBowler View Post
    This is most definitely wrong.

    In a spot where you are down 15, always go for 2 first. If you go for 1 right away, what are you playing for? A last second td where you are 50/50 to tie or lose with no time left? You have no incentive to rush it since best you can do is tie and hope other team doesnt have time to score.

    If you go for 2 and make it, you are in same scenario as above except instead of a 50/50 chance at tie with td, its 95% (or 50/50 chance for WIN if you go for 2 again)

    If you go for 2 and miss it at 50/50, now you know you need to rush your next score because you need one more.

    Limiting coinflips at end of games (a 2pt conversion) and knowing exactly what pace you need to play is by far the most important thing.

    Going for 1 after first td is by FAR the worst decision and just another reason why JMU was outmatched on the coaching front.
    We're talking about this game, with this game's specifics. Down 15 with 45 minutes to play is very different than down 15 with 5 minutes to play....against NDSU in a national championship. Don't forget, the Doooks were a phenomenal play by Jimmy Football away from a two point conversion to send the game into OT. They played it the right way, we were just better on saturday.

  3. #443
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    Default Re: JMU Post-Game Thoughts & Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by 89MTBISON View Post
    We're talking about this game, with this game's specifics. Down 15 with 45 minutes to play is very different than down 15 with 5 minutes to play....against NDSU in a national championship. Don't forget, the Doooks were a phenomenal play by Jimmy Football away from a two point conversion to send the game into OT. They played it the right way, we were just better on saturday.
    I agree NDSU was better on Saturday; however, JMU clearly made mistake not going for 2 early.
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    oldmantutters is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: JMU Post-Game Thoughts & Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by 89MTBISON View Post
    We're talking about this game, with this game's specifics. Down 15 with 45 minutes to play is very different than down 15 with 5 minutes to play....against NDSU in a national championship. Don't forget, the Doooks were a phenomenal play by Jimmy Football away from a two point conversion to send the game into OT. They played it the right way, we were just better on saturday.
    Nope. You should go for 2 as early as possible. Don't know why people hang on to this outdated way of thinking.

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    Default Re: JMU Post-Game Thoughts & Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by 89MTBISON View Post
    We're talking about this game, with this game's specifics. Down 15 with 45 minutes to play is very different than down 15 with 5 minutes to play....against NDSU in a national championship. Don't forget, the Doooks were a phenomenal play by Jimmy Football away from a two point conversion to send the game into OT. They played it the right way, we were just better on saturday.
    Down 15 with 5 minutes to go. .you go for 2. If you fail, you know how desperate the situation is. Would you rather fail at a two point attempt with ~5 seconds left to try doing anything about it or have ~5 minutes to work with? That's the question and the answer is not difficult.
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    Default Re: JMU Post-Game Thoughts & Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by oldmantutters View Post
    Nope. You should go for 2 as early as possible. Don't know why people hang on to this outdated way of thinking.

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    Because we tend to confuse extending the game with improved chance to win, when they aren’t necessarily the same thing.

    This is an information problem. Getting more information sooner facilitates better decision making later.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

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    NDSUBowler's Avatar
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    Default Re: JMU Post-Game Thoughts & Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by 89MTBISON View Post
    We're talking about this game, with this game's specifics. Down 15 with 45 minutes to play is very different than down 15 with 5 minutes to play....against NDSU in a national championship. Don't forget, the Doooks were a phenomenal play by Jimmy Football away from a two point conversion to send the game into OT. They played it the right way, we were just better on saturday.
    The scenario I presented was under the pretense of minimal chances remaining to score. JMU had 6:55 left. Not 5 not 45. Going for two is 100% the right play.

    I mean, look how it even played out during the game! They methodically went down the field so their BEST CASE scenario is giving themselves a 50/50 shot to simply tie the game and go to OT. Congrats to them for giving themselves less than a 25% chance to win if they score! (Assume 50/50 on 2pt and slightly less than 50/50 to win in OT)

    Go for 2 early and get it and at the minimum they can go for 2 to win the champ if they score again.

    But hey stay stuck in your antiquated way of thinking about ‘staying in as long as possible’ even if it means sacrificing win equity.

    Its like the poker player that is happy never taking any chances and always seems to cash, except hes always first out because he wont accumulated chips and take risks until its too late.

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    Default Re: JMU Post-Game Thoughts & Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by NDSUBowler View Post
    The scenario I presented was under the pretense of minimal chances remaining to score. JMU had 6:55 left. Not 5 not 45. Going for two is 100% the right play.

    I mean, look how it even played out during the game! They methodically went down the field so their BEST CASE scenario is giving themselves a 50/50 shot to simply tie the game and go to OT. Congrats to them for giving themselves less than a 25% chance to win if they score! (Assume 50/50 on 2pt and slightly less than 50/50 to win in OT)

    Go for 2 early and get it and at the minimum they can go for 2 to win the champ if they score again.

    But hey stay stuck in your antiquated way of thinking about ‘staying in as long as possible’ even if it means sacrificing win equity.

    Its like the poker player that is happy never taking any chances and always seems to cash, except hes always first out because he wont accumulated chips and take risks until its too late.
    Right because going for 2 and missing it when you just got it to 9 doesn't effectively end the game. If you can force two 3 and outs in a row, which you haven't done all game, then you might get enough time to score twice. Maybe you try an onside kick with an 8% chance of success.

    This game will not end in a tie. Keeping it a one score game when you know possessions are at a premium increases the chances of extending the game and the opportunity to win. You don't play 130 some plays and put your team out of reach. It's not playing safe, it's keeping your team in the best position to maximize momentum, possessions, and the clock.

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    Default Re: JMU Post-Game Thoughts & Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by td577 View Post
    Right because going for 2 and missing it when you just got it to 9 doesn't effectively end the game. If you can force two 3 and outs in a row, which you haven't done all game, then you might get enough time to score twice. Maybe you try an onside kick with an 8% chance of success.

    This game will not end in a tie. Keeping it a one score game when you know possessions are at a premium increases the chances of extending the game and the opportunity to win. You don't play 130 some plays and put your team out of reach. It's not playing safe, it's keeping your team in the best position to maximize momentum, possessions, and the clock.

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    We just got done saying that extending the game isn’t the same thing as improving your chance to win, but here we are right back on that heuristic.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  10. #450
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    Default Re: JMU Post-Game Thoughts & Discussion

    Quote Originally Posted by td577 View Post
    Right because going for 2 and missing it when you just got it to 9 doesn't effectively end the game. If you can force two 3 and outs in a row, which you haven't done all game, then you might get enough time to score twice. Maybe you try an onside kick with an 8% chance of success.

    This game will not end in a tie. Keeping it a one score game when you know possessions are at a premium increases the chances of extending the game and the opportunity to win. You don't play 130 some plays and put your team out of reach. It's not playing safe, it's keeping your team in the best position to maximize momentum, possessions, and the clock.

    Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk
    Take a deep breath and try looking at the problem from a different angle. I'm certain that you're capable of seeing the error in your thinking. I have confidence in you.

    Another perspective is that with 5-6 minutes left, the opponent is less certain whether you'll kick or go for two, so you potentially have a bit of a surprise factor -- for example, lining up for the kick and faking it for two. If you're down by 2 after a TD with only a few seconds left, you lose that slight advantage. Everyone knows you have to go for two.

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