NDSU vs. JMU (Special Teams Analysis)

[heffray]

On top of that, the Bison enter with the nation’s most efficient passing offense. The deeper you dig with stats, the more obvious it becomes that the game is NDSUs to lose.

I think you can look at a collection of stats 1 way and a different collection of stats another and reach separate conclusions. This leads me to believe that these are 2 evenly matched teams and it’s going to be a great game that could go either way. If this thread is showing us anything, it’s that you have to get pretty granular to find an edge either way.

[GreenfieldBison]

JMU's opponents averaged 144.26 yards/game for 4.09 yards/carry.
When playing JMU they were held to 71 yards/game for 2.54 yards/carry.

Thus, JMU holds opponents to about 49% of their typical rushing yards/game and 62% of their typical yards/carry.

When broken down by opponents' Sagarin rating:

Opponent > 60 rating: 46% of typical yards/game and 78% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 50-60 rating: 49% of typical yards/game and 57% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 40-50 rating: 47% of typical yards/game and 61% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 30-40 rating: 44% of typical yards/game and 47% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent < 30 rating: 65% of typical yards/game and 71% of typical yard/carry (gotta be garbage time stuff vs. Morgan State)

The Bison will be in the >60 rating category (highest opponent JMU will have faced to-date).

If JMU can hold the Bison to similar results as their 3 other teams at 60+ rating, the Bison will end with around 134 yards rushing on 4.92 yards/attempt.

Something has to budge there. And I would bet almost anything it will be the rushing yards. If we can rush for anywhere near 4.92 yards/attempt I say we win going away and our rushing yards will be well above 134 yards.

Of note: the Bison average 85 yards more per game and 1.1 yards/carry than JMUs highest rushing opponent to-date (Monmouth) and 150 yards more per game and 2.5 yards/carry more than JMUs opponent average.

Also of interest: their top 3 opponents to-date (WVU, Weber, UNI) combined for an average of 111 rushing yards/game at 3.26 yards/carry over their entire seasons. So although they were the 3 highest rated opponents, they were very mediocre rushing teams.

For comparison NDSU is pulling over 288 rushing yards/game at 6.41 yards/carry. Almost 3 times the average yards as JMUs toughest opponents, and almost double the yards/carry.

They will not have seen an opponent with anywhere near the rushing attack the Bison will bring.

Have you been reading Ron Dobervich blog?

[Stary2k11]

Have you been reading Ron Dobervich blog?

Not sure what that is? If this a joke of some sort it’s going over my head!

[oldmantutters]

Not sure what that is? If this a joke of some sort it’s going over my head!

It's a fantastic blog by a former Bison. Search for Kick About Bison.

[Stary2k11]

It's a fantastic blog by a former Bison. Search for Kick About Bison.

Good stuff. I can see that we took a similar approach in analyzing some of these stats.

[GreenfieldBison]

Good stuff. I can see that we took a similar approach in analyzing some of these stats.

Please put me down as an enthusiastic supporter of both of your sets of conclusions.

Thanks for the help here Oldmantutters

[IzzyFlexion]

2019 Season: JMU

Fumbles: 22
Fumbles Lost: 10
Intercepted 5 times.

Opponents Fumbles: 21
Opponents Fumbles Lost: 9
Opponents Intercepted by JMU 17 times.

TOTAL (Turnover Margin) +11

2019 Season: NDSU

Fumbles: 12
Fumbles Lost: 5
Intercepted 1 time

Opponents Fumbles: 18
Opponents Fumbles Lost: 6
Opponents Intercepted by NDSU 16 times

TOTAL (Turnover Margin) +16

[heffray]

2019 Season: JMU

Fumbles: 22
Fumbles Lost: 10
Intercepted 5 times.

Opponents Fumbles: 21
Opponents Fumbles Lost: 9
Opponents Intercepted by JMU 17 times.

TOTAL (Turnover Margin) +11

2019 Season: NDSU

Fumbles: 12
Fumbles Lost: 5
Intercepted 1 time

Opponents Fumbles: 18
Opponents Fumbles Lost: 6
Opponents Intercepted by NDSU 16 times

TOTAL (Turnover Margin) +16

I think this is the big one... Obvious advantage to NDSU here.

[bruinbison]

JMU's opponents averaged 144.26 yards/game for 4.09 yards/carry.
When playing JMU they were held to 71 yards/game for 2.54 yards/carry.

Thus, JMU holds opponents to about 49% of their typical rushing yards/game and 62% of their typical yards/carry.

When broken down by opponents' Sagarin rating:

Opponent > 60 rating: 46% of typical yards/game and 78% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 50-60 rating: 49% of typical yards/game and 57% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 40-50 rating: 47% of typical yards/game and 61% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent 30-40 rating: 44% of typical yards/game and 47% of typical yards/carry.
Opponent < 30 rating: 65% of typical yards/game and 71% of typical yard/carry (gotta be garbage time stuff vs. Morgan State)

The Bison will be in the >60 rating category (highest opponent JMU will have faced to-date).

If JMU can hold the Bison to similar results as their 3 other teams at 60+ rating, the Bison will end with around 134 yards rushing on 4.92 yards/attempt.

Something has to budge there. And I would bet almost anything it will be the rushing yards. If we can rush for anywhere near 4.92 yards/attempt I say we win going away and our rushing yards will be well above 134 yards.

Of note: the Bison average 85 yards more per game and 1.1 yards/carry than JMUs highest rushing opponent to-date (Monmouth) and 150 yards more per game and 2.5 yards/carry more than JMUs opponent average.

Also of interest: their top 3 opponents to-date (WVU, Weber, UNI) combined for an average of 111 rushing yards/game at 3.26 yards/carry over their entire seasons. So although they were the 3 highest rated opponents, they were very mediocre rushing teams.

For comparison NDSU is pulling over 288 rushing yards/game at 6.41 yards/carry. Almost 3 times the average yards as JMUs toughest opponents, and almost double the yards/carry.

They will not have seen an opponent with anywhere near the rushing attack the Bison will bring.

Thanks for the analysis everyone!
Good stuff Izzy & Heffray & PC & all.
Special humor awards to Bridog on the D’Angelo analytics and Vet70 on migraine mitigation

Am looking forward to the Bison not being shorthanded on special teams today, as compared to 2017 against JMU. IIRC three + ST regulars were injured in the semis and barely played (Jimmy Football) or did not play, in the championship. Plus, I still have nightmares about that punter injury. Yikes