Bracketology 3.0

[Professor Chaos]

I don't see how you separate SDSU, UNI, and ISUr. I also don't see how you separate Montana, Weber, and Sac St. I think those are the #3-8 teams, but I don't know how to sequence them. The committee won't seed it that way. They'll seed another CAA team or worse. I'd probably go Griz, Weber, Sac St, SDSU, ISU, UNI. The committee is going to leave one of the Valley teams unseeded so we will see them in the dome the first Saturday in December.

That's pretty unlikely unless SDSU is the unseeded MVFC team. Barring multiple big upsets at least two of the 3 between SDSU, UNI, and Illinois St will be seeded. UNI is bus distance from SDSU and Illinois St but not from NDSU. Illinois St is bus distance to UNI but not to SDSU or NDSU. SDSU is bus distance to NDSU and UNI but not to Illinois St.

Much better likelihood that SDSU or Illinois St is the seeded MVFC team to see UNI in their first playoff game IMO.

Considering the injuries to the other MVFC teams, it probably would be fair to not seed them all. It's a mess. I don't know which of the three teams is the most gutted. All have lost their starting QB. I think they've all lost either their star RB or WR(or both if you're UNI). Even with 3 or 4 MVFC seeds this year, I don't expect the Valley to do all that much outside of NDSU. Just too many critical losses.

UNI's starting QB McElvain is still relatively healthy I believe. Pretty much every other offensive skill position for them has been gutted by injuries though.

[tolnabison]

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/article/18001

I found this article to be a very good breakdown of the FCS bracket and teams on the bubble.

[heffray]

They could at least stop punishing the team with the “best loss” as the Big Sky does now. After head-to-head the next criteria is best record against common conference opponents in descending order. (Sagarin is their 4th criteria.)

Maybe post the official criteria for truth? Anyone know where it is?

[Professor Chaos]

Maybe post the official criteria for truth? Anyone know where it is?

If you can handle the speaker's terrible presentation skills/delivery this 15 minute video on the selection process and criteria was much more informative for me than even reading through the championship handbook.

[Hammersmith]

UNI's starting QB McElvain is still relatively healthy I believe. Pretty much every other offensive skill position for them has been gutted by injuries though.

You're correct. He's a freshman just like all of the locked MVFC are now(NDSU, UNI, SDSU & ISUr), so I guess I just assumed. We probably both saw the same post by clenz on AGS.

[heffray]

If you can handle the speaker's terrible presentation skills/delivery this 15 minute video on the selection process and criteria was much more informative for me than even reading through the championship handbook.

Thanks.

I pulled some data out of there that I thought would be helpful. I think its important to note that the first criteria says "...the committee may consider comparative data of individual teams, including, but not limited to..." so its not as if they are only allowed to use these, and it doesn't look like they use it in any particular order of importance. Also, I didn't see Sagarin listed anywhere, unless that is the "NCAA SRS data." Anyone know what that is?

"General Principles for Selection, Seeding, and Bracketing (Continued):
4. At any time during the process, the committee may consider comparative data of individual teams, including, but not limited to:
A. Overall Record
B. Record Against Div 1 opponents (an institution with less than six Div 1 wins may place that team in jeopardy of not being selected)
C. Record against opponents from other AQ conferences
D. Record against FBS opponents
E. Head-to-Head record
F. Record against common opponents
G. NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) data
H. FCS Coaches Poll
I. Input from Regional Advisory Committees

Guidelines for the Establishment of the 24-Team bracket (Continued):
2. Seeding:
A. Once the 24 Championship Teams have been determined, the Committee shall seed the Top 8 teams
B. Committee members will recommend teams to be considered in the seed pool. A team must received at least 30% of the votes to be included in the seed pool. Committee members with teams under consideration may be present and participate in this vote
C. Each member will rank the teams in the seed pool via poll vote. The teams will be preliminarily ranked according to the vote totals they receive. They Committee will then review this preliminary rank and engage in discussion. The Committee will then engage in a poll vote of the seed pool teams to determine the Top 8 seeds in rank order (the output of that second poll vote)

3. Pairings:
A. The teams awarded the top 8 seeds shall receive a first-round bye and are placed in the appropriate positions in the bracket (1, 8, 4, and 5 in the upper half; 2, 7, 3, and 6 in the lower half)
B. The remaining 16 teams will play first round games and will be paired according to the geographic proximity of the top eight seeds previously placed into the bracket
C. It is the committees charge to do their best to minimize the number of flights during the championship. The NCAA mileage threshold for mandatory team travel via ground is 400 miles
D. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against eachother during the regular season; such teams may play eachother in the first round)
E. Once the first-round pairings have been determined, there will be no adjustments to the bracket (e.g. a seeded team may play a conference opponent that advanced out of the first round)"

[Professor Chaos]

The SRS is the NCAA's computer rankings system that they introduced in 2013. They never release it until after the bracket is announced and it has pretty much always been garbage (as is the Coaches Poll). They have released some information about the formula for it that's posted on AGS if you're interested (link). Their selections for seeds or the at-large teams haven't really matched very well with the SRS or the Coaches Poll in the past so I think it's safe to say they don't use either for more than just a reference point.

I think if the committee is being honest they'll tell you the SRS and Coaches Poll data isn't worth the paper (or screen space) it's printed on when they are having their deliberations but they'll be diplomatic about it when asked on the record.

[ndsubison1]

I could see them putting in a 7-5 Maine over UND.

[89MTBISON]

From Stats

BIG SKY

Only Montana (9-2, 6-1), Sacramento State (8-3, 6-1) or Weber State (8-3, 6-1) can claim the AQ. Montana State (8-3, 5-2) and Eastern Washington (6-5, 5-2) can tie for the title, but need to win their games and have the three first-place teams lose this week.

According to the conference, the AQ scenarios are:

- If Montana, Sacramento State and Weber State finish tied at 7-1, Montana gets the AQ;

- If Montana and Weber State finish tied at 7-1, Montana gets the AQ;

- If Sacramento State and Weber State finish tied at 7-1, Weber State gets the AQ;

- If Montana and Sacramento State finish tied at 7-1, Sacramento State gets the AQ;

- If Eastern Washington, Montana, Montana State, Sacramento State and Weber State finish tied at 6-2, Sacramento State gets the AQ;

- If Montana, Montana State, Sacramento State and Weber State finish tied at 6-2, Sacramento State gets the AQ


Could that get more complicated? Maybe not if the Griz win on saturday.

[bisonaudit]

Thanks.

I pulled some data out of there that I thought would be helpful. I think its important to note that the first criteria says "...the committee may consider comparative data of individual teams, including, but not limited to..." so its not as if they are only allowed to use these, and it doesn't look like they use it in any particular order of importance. Also, I didn't see Sagarin listed anywhere, unless that is the "NCAA SRS data." Anyone know what that is?

"General Principles for Selection, Seeding, and Bracketing (Continued):
4. At any time during the process, the committee may consider comparative data of individual teams, including, but not limited to:
A. Overall Record
B. Record Against Div 1 opponents (an institution with less than six Div 1 wins may place that team in jeopardy of not being selected)
C. Record against opponents from other AQ conferences
D. Record against FBS opponents
E. Head-to-Head record
F. Record against common opponents
G. NCAA Simple Rating System (NCAA SRS) data
H. FCS Coaches Poll
I. Input from Regional Advisory Committees

Guidelines for the Establishment of the 24-Team bracket (Continued):
2. Seeding:
A. Once the 24 Championship Teams have been determined, the Committee shall seed the Top 8 teams
B. Committee members will recommend teams to be considered in the seed pool. A team must received at least 30% of the votes to be included in the seed pool. Committee members with teams under consideration may be present and participate in this vote
C. Each member will rank the teams in the seed pool via poll vote. The teams will be preliminarily ranked according to the vote totals they receive. They Committee will then review this preliminary rank and engage in discussion. The Committee will then engage in a poll vote of the seed pool teams to determine the Top 8 seeds in rank order (the output of that second poll vote)

3. Pairings:
A. The teams awarded the top 8 seeds shall receive a first-round bye and are placed in the appropriate positions in the bracket (1, 8, 4, and 5 in the upper half; 2, 7, 3, and 6 in the lower half)
B. The remaining 16 teams will play first round games and will be paired according to the geographic proximity of the top eight seeds previously placed into the bracket
C. It is the committees charge to do their best to minimize the number of flights during the championship. The NCAA mileage threshold for mandatory team travel via ground is 400 miles
D. Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against eachother during the regular season; such teams may play eachother in the first round)
E. Once the first-round pairings have been determined, there will be no adjustments to the bracket (e.g. a seeded team may play a conference opponent that advanced out of the first round)"

The committee doesn’t use Sagarin. It’s the 4th tie break criteria for the Big Sky auto bid.