I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
The number of possessions each team has, outcome of possession (including ending field position), is what matters. Especially the outcome of a possession ending in a turnover or turnover resulting in a score the other way. Not number of plays.
Generally in sports, a team has the significant advantage that possession of the ball is stealing the other teams possible possession time.
This is not a blackjack table with “infinite” time to increase the sample size and everyone gets a hand per deal. Or infinite time to catch up after a random event.
Without a shot clock should the better basketball team keep running the ball down if they have the lead? Even if they don’t have the lead, but plenty of time?
Would that increase or decrease variance in the outcome of the game? Chances that a random steal for a dunk the other way occur?
More plays increases the chance for random events to occur in a single game.
Yes this goes both ways, but I only need to win by 1. I don’t get to carry my blackjack winnings to the next game.
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Clearly you've spent some time contemplating this. I don't agree with your conclusion, but you've engaged the problem in a non trivial way.
Seems like all else equal, playing faster means more plays which also means, on average, more possessions. I'm not sure how much one matters over the other. But wouldn't you expect them to move in the same direction.
I'm not sure I understand entirely the point with the blackjack analogy. The game is only infinite for the house. If you sit forever, you will lose, unless you are counting, in which case you will be invited to leave. But the whole thing is we are talking about how an underdog should play, which is what you are at a blackjack table. In that case the game isn't infinite, the player is in complete control of how long it lasts.
Sure the more plays there are the more random stuff is going to accumulate on both sides of the ledger but our sports are skill games and with more trials more skill is applied to both sides of the ledger as well.
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
In blackjack, the moment you are winning you should quit playing. The more hands you play, the more the odds will favor the house. The house always wins. Always.
In games of skill, the winner is most often the one who controlled the parts of the game they can control. In football, it isn't a coincidence, the team who controls the clock generally wins. Of course, to control the clock, one must occasionally move the ball.
I don't see the logic in taking on a team that scores 40+ points a game and I score 20 and say our odds increase with more chances for them to do what they do best. Score points. Couple this with what my team doesn't do which is score 40 points a game. Not a winning mix. Generally ever.
You slow down the game. Control what you can control. Now mistakes are magnified exponentially. Differences in expected outcomes are magnified as they can't be overcome. You are pulling the spark plugs on their 12 cylinder jaguar and you now can keep up with your Kia.
Auburn beat Alabama because Auburn already was capable of putting 40+ points on that team. The number of programs, even on the greatest of days, that can drop 40 on ther Bison are so limited the balls out method isn't even attempted by the craziest of coaches. Wanting to run 100 plays and keep giving the ball back is suicide. It does make for a much more interesting game for those who like to see offense.
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