So which is more important in the full scheme of things.... Sagarin ratings or getting the 2s,3s & 4s game experience?
So which is more important in the full scheme of things.... Sagarin ratings or getting the 2s,3s & 4s game experience?
You wanta play football, any school will do; ... You wanta learn football, NDSU is for you!
NDSU regular season record:
12-0 90.2% -3.5%
11-1. 9.6% +3.3%
10-2. 0.2% +0.1%
opponent chance spread
v. USD 98.0% -28.0 -31.5 -0.9% +3.5
@ S Ill 92.0% -19.0 -22.0 -2.8% +3.0
Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.
Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
Mo Valley: 4 (NDSU 1, SDSU 5, UNI 7, Ill St 8) +1 from last week (SDSU 3, UNI 6, Ill St)
Big Sky: 3 (Mont 3, Weber 4, Sac St 6) -1 from last week (Mont 5, Sac St 7, EWU 8)
Colonial: 1 (JMU 2) no change from last week
Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
Big Sky: 5 (EWU, Mt St, UCD)
Mo Valley: 4 (S Ill) changes: YSU out
Colonial: 3 (Villanova, Towson, Maine), changes: UNH out, Maine in
Southern: 1 (Wofford) Furman
Southland: 1 (SHSU) SE La, changes: SHSU in
Last 4 in:
Mo Valley (S Ill)
Colonial (Maine)
Southern (Wofford)
Southland (SHSU)
First 4 out:
Mo Valley (USD)
Ohio V (Austin P)
Big Sky (UND)
Colonial (UNH)
FYI: just assuming at this point that the team with the top rating in each conference will win the autobid.
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
Current FCS top 25 per Sagarin. Shocked to see USD in the top 25:
39 North Dakota State AA = 75.64 10 0 47.36( 158) 0 0 | 0 0 | 73.84 49 | 76.39 37 | 76.37 38 MISSOURI VALLEY
67 James Madison AA = 69.55 9 1 47.38( 157) 0 0 | 0 0 | 69.20 71 | 68.37 71 | 70.69 57 COLONIAL
87 Montana AA = 64.22 8 2 51.06( 141) 0 1 | 0 1 | 64.25 85 | 62.56 97 | 65.46 81 BIG SKY
90 Weber State AA = 63.84 8 2 53.09( 136) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.56 109 | 62.49 98 | 69.67 63 BIG SKY
96 South Dakota State AA = 62.43 7 3 46.98( 162) 0 0 | 0 1 | 63.91 88 | 63.62 94 | 59.42 109 MISSOURI VALLEY
101 Dartmouth AA = 61.86 8 0 38.72( 208) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.93 108 | 60.73 103 | 64.57 86 IVY LEAGUE
105 Sacramento State AA = 60.95 7 3 56.87( 124) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.08 101 | 57.78 118 | 63.69 90 BIG SKY
108 Northern Iowa AA = 60.22 7 3 50.64( 143) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.27 118 | 60.57 106 | 62.45 98 MISSOURI VALLEY
120 Illinois State AA = 57.08 7 3 49.22( 152) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.14 130 | 57.97 117 | 58.72 111 MISSOURI VALLEY
121 Eastern Washington AA = 56.92 5 5 51.28( 140) 0 0 | 0 1 | 58.77 110 | 56.10 121 | 55.47 122 BIG SKY
123 Montana State AA = 55.55 7 3 45.42( 172) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.54 126 | 54.88 125 | 55.80 120 BIG SKY
125 Furman AA = 55.09 7 3 40.66( 199) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.62 116 | 54.10 131 | 53.13 138 SOUTHERN
126 UC Davis AA = 54.94 5 5 53.19( 135) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.13 127 | 54.44 127 | 54.79 125 BIG SKY
129 Towson AA = 54.70 6 4 48.47( 154) 0 0 | 0 1 | 55.89 123 | 54.41 128 | 53.34 136 COLONIAL
130 Princeton AA = 54.50 7 1 34.55( 233) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.82 132 | 54.99 124 | 54.25 130 IVY LEAGUE
131 Villanova AA = 54.26 7 3 46.03( 169) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.84 131 | 53.69 132 | 54.79 126 COLONIAL
132 Southern Illinois AA = 54.12 6 4 49.26( 150) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.80 134 | 52.26 135 | 56.84 117 MISSOURI VALLEY
135 SE Louisiana AA = 53.58 6 3 41.84( 193) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.77 135 | 50.54 140 | 56.98 116 SOUTHLAND
136 Maine AA = 52.62 5 5 49.44( 147) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.46 138 | 51.00 139 | 54.93 124 COLONIAL
137 Wofford AA = 52.30 6 3 37.96( 212) 0 1 | 0 1 | 54.56 129 | 51.10 137 | 50.76 146 SOUTHERN
141 Yale AA = 51.08 7 1 37.82( 213) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.66 147 | 51.19 136 | 52.91 139 IVY LEAGUE
142 SE Missouri State AA = 50.31 7 3 47.70( 156) 0 0 | 0 0 | 46.70 160 | 50.27 142 | 53.38 135 OHIO VALLEY
143 South Dakota AA = 49.98 4 6 46.93( 163) 0 1 | 0 1 | 51.27 139 | 50.01 144 | 48.17 157 MISSOURI VALLEY
144 Austin Peay AA = 49.96 7 3 40.38( 203) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.71 156 | 47.41 157 | 54.16 132 OHIO VALLEY
145 North Dakota AA = 49.92 5 4 52.51( 139) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.40 142 | 48.90 150 | 50.03 147 BIG SKY
Couple things of note putting together top 25.....
JMU is now within spitting distance of NDSU. Appear to be the main worry at this point.
SDSU probably still overvalued as the model has limited data with the Gibbs injury.
Beware of the Griz.....that will be a dangerous team for any and all that need to head to Missoula.
Yeah Lakes, you were only right 94% of the time, you F*cking MORON. Cant believe you were so wrong. we're losing 6% of our games over a DECADE. this competition is off the charts, literally not possible to have more impressive competition. And to reiterate, you were wrong 6% of the time- you IDIOT. How could you say such a f*cking ridiculous thing like "statistically, it is likely we go undefeated every year in the last decade, because we are literally favored in every single game except for, like, 3 in the last decade". Moron.
1. The FCS was the Best option for NDSU for a very long time.
2. As a general rule- the FCS sucks at football and has proven that is not committed to football at all.
3. It's time to go FBS
Notorious--Bisonville all-time POTY
Proud member of TOHBTC[/B]
well I was born in Mankato. so maybe we are brothers LOL and i'm pretty sure he was being facetious towards 1st and Tenn.
NDSU TO FBS. HAVEN'T WE WON ENOUGH?