2019 Sagarin Says

[CAS4127]

From what little I have seen he is still a factor and Danials and Strong are solid. Sounds like maybe their OL has been playing under par for what they are expecting with hopes of improvement. Gibbs seems to be what you would expect from a RFr QB not named Trey Lance. I do feel good about the game and how we have steadily gotten better every game.

We have of late had a difficult time with stopping zone/stretch blocking and a good/solid RB who finds seems. That is what SDSU and Strong do best. I’d also rate Strong above ISU Robinson.

Will be interesting to see how we defend that scheme.

Let’s get past MSU first of course.


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[stevdock]

We have of late had a difficult time with stopping zone/stretch blocking and a good/solid RB who finds seems. That is what SDSU and Strong do best. I’d also rate Strong above ISU Robinson.

Will be interesting to see how we defend that scheme.

Let’s get past MSU first of course.


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I haven't checked all of the SDSU games but the ones that I have I was surprised to see Strong with such few touches. I believe against Youngstown he had around 10 touches. He gave us problems in the past so I thought he would be a bigger emphasis in their offense.

[Professor Chaos]

I haven't checked all of the SDSU games but the ones that I have I was surprised to see Strong with such few touches. I believe against Youngstown he had around 10 touches. He gave us problems in the past so I thought he would be a bigger emphasis in their offense.

They split carries quite a bit between him, CJ Wilson (who is a similar back IMO but probably not as talented), and Mikey Daniel (who is their short yardage back and is a 5th year senior - not nearly as dynamic but probably a bit better in pass pro and such).

Remember what Twitter Fingers Eck said in the offseason... SDSU has the best collection of RBs in the country (and don't @ him).

[totoinfl]

We have of late had a difficult time with stopping zone/stretch blocking and a good/solid RB who finds seems. That is what SDSU and Strong do best. I’d also rate Strong above ISU Robinson.

Will be interesting to see how we defend that scheme.

Let’s get past MSU first of course.


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Agreed. SDSU need to take time off the clock and run the ball...gonna be a slugfest in the trenches.

[bri-dog]

Agreed. SDSU need to take time off the clock and run the ball...gonna be a slugfest in the trenches.

Well, Rozeboom is still playing, so probably...

[totoinfl]

Well, Rozeboom is still playing, so probably...

I forgot he has his 9th year of eligibility...then its a thug fest when he is involved.

[VirginiaBison]

I haven't checked all of the SDSU games but the ones that I have I was surprised to see Strong with such few touches.

Yep, in 4 games Pierre Strong is averaging about 11 touches per game, with about 82 yards per game. SIU (5th game) was an exception with 20 touches and 229 yards. Weird use this year so far. Could be that they didn't need Strong for the 4 games, but SUI was closer. I haven't watch any of the games, so don't know if SIU was more of a test for the bunnies.

[Gtownbison]

Stig just keeping him fresh for the Bison.

[gumby013]

Down to 39.

[bisonaudit]

NDSU regular season record:
12-0 55.8%. -1.3%
11-1 39.0% +1.1%
10-2.. 5.0% +0.2%
9-3... .0.2% +0.0%
8-4... 0.004%
7-5... 0.000003%

opponent chance spread
@ SDSU 64.5%. -5.0 -1.6% +0.5
@ YSU.. 94.3% -21.5 +2.3% -2.5
v. W Ill.. 99.9% -42.5 -0.0% +1.5
v. USD.. 96.2% -24.0 -0.2% +0.5
@ S Ill.. 95.4% -23.0 -2.3% +4.0

Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.

Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
Mo Valley: 3 (NDSU 1, SDSU 3, UNI 6) no change from last week (SDSU 2, UNI 5)
Big Sky: 3 (Montana 4, Sac St 5, Weber 7) no change from last week (Sac St 8)
Colonial: 2 (JMU 2, Villanova 8) +1 from last week (Villanova, JMU 3)
Southern: 0 -1 from last week (Furman 6)

Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
Big Sky: 6 (Mt St, UCD, EWU, Id St)
Mo Valley: 5 (YSU, Ill St, USD)
Colonial: 2 (Towson), changes: Towson in UNH out
Southern: 1 (Wofford) Furman

Last 4 in:
Colonial (Towson)
Mo Valley (YSU)
Big Sky (Id St)
Southern (Wofford)

First 4 out:
Southland (Nicholls)
Mo Valley (S Ill)
Southland (C Ark)
Colonial (UNH)

FYI: just assuming at this point that the team with the top rating in each conference will win the autobid.