Page 13 of 64 FirstFirst ... 311121314152363 ... LastLast
Results 121 to 130 of 631

Thread: 2019 Sagarin Says

  1. #121
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    18,525

    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by TransAmBison View Post
    UNI always seems to have a very favorable ranking despite their record.
    They are remarkably consistent on playing near the top of the MVFC and making the PO. Years they have lost games they are often close. Recipe for always being strong in Sagarin.

  2. #122
    Mr Pep Band's Avatar
    Mr Pep Band is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    Fargodome and BSA
    Posts
    1,147

    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan View Post
    They are remarkably consistent on playing near the top of the MVFC and making the PO. Years they have lost games they are often close. Recipe for always being strong in Sagarin.
    They're no slouch when it comes to non-con games either, they usually play Iowa State or Iowa seems like every year.

  3. #123
    Join Date
    Jun 2006
    Posts
    18,525

    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Pep Band View Post
    They're no slouch when it comes to non-con games either, they usually play Iowa State or Iowa seems like every year.
    And playing Iowa St tough helps them as they are a good football team this year.

  4. #124
    Join Date
    Oct 2017
    Posts
    693

    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    I will start drinking Kool-Aid when/if the Bison beat SDSU and YSU back to back on the road. We'll see how this team looks after a two week break, UC Davis wasnt a world beater and that game easily could have went the other way. I see talent in this years team but Im far from putting them in Frisco at this point.

  5. #125
    VirginiaBison is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
    Join Date
    Oct 2013
    Posts
    1,258

    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by KNOW IT ALL View Post
    I see talent in this years team but I'm far from putting them in Frisco at this point.
    Did you get tickets to Frisco for the Natty?
    You wanta play football, any school will do; ... You wanta learn football, NDSU is for you!

  6. #126
    Join Date
    Aug 2015
    Location
    879 miles from Folsom Field
    Posts
    9,246

    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by VirginiaBison View Post
    Did you get tickets to Frisco for the Natty?
    Heads up KnowItAll. This is one of those questions that absolutely DOES have a wrong answer...


    Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
    Don't believe everything you think.

  7. #127
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    St. Paul
    Posts
    19,094

    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    OK.

    Here we go:

    NDSU regular season record:
    12-0 41.1%
    11-1 41.6%
    10-2 14.7%
    9-3 2.4%
    8-4 0.2%
    7-5 0.01%
    6-6 0.0001%
    5-7 0.000001%
    4-8 0.000000001%

    opponent chance spread
    @ Ill St. 88.5% -16.5
    v. UNI... 88.5% -16.5
    v. Mo St 99.7% -37.0
    @ SDSU 66.9%. -6.0
    @ YSU.. 85.7% -14.5
    v. W Ill. 99.6% -36.5
    v. USD.. 97.3% -26.5
    v. S Ill.. 94.7% -22.0

    Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.

    Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
    Mo Valley: 4 (NDSU 1, SDSU 2, UNI 5, YSU 7)
    Big Sky: 3 (Montana 4, Weber 6, EWU 8)
    Colonial: 1 (JMU 3)

    Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
    Big Sky: 6 (Mt St, UCD, Sac St, Id St)
    Mo Valley: 5 (Ill St, USD)
    Colonial: 2 (Villanova, Towson)
    Southland: 1 (SHSU) C Akr

    Last 4 in:
    Big Sky (Sac St)
    Big Sky (Id St)
    Southland (SHSU)
    Mo Valley (USD)

    First 4 out:
    Southland (Nicholls)
    Colonial (Maine)
    Mo Valley (S Ill)
    Colonial (Delaware)
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  8. #128
    Join Date
    Sep 2008
    Location
    Columbus, OH
    Posts
    15,077

    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    OK. Need a math primer. Can those win total percentages be combined? As in there is a 82.8 chance that NDSU will only lose 1 game regardless?
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  9. #129
    Join Date
    Oct 2003
    Location
    St. Paul
    Posts
    19,094

    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Bison 4 Life View Post
    OK. Need a math primer. Can those win total percentages be combined? As in there is a 82.8 chance that NDSU will only lose 1 game regardless?
    Yes, they’re the percent chance of finishing with that particular record so, as you suggest, if you wanted to know the chance that they’d have no more than 1 loss you’d add the zero loss chance to the 1 loss chance.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  10. #130
    Join Date
    Sep 2005
    Location
    Oak Ridge, NC
    Posts
    8,088

    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Thanks Audit. Does this math assume the games are independent events from one another? In other words, losing or winning a particular game has no impact on the outcome of a different game?
    Get your BB tickets now!!!

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •