Re: 2019 Sagarin Says
OK.
Here we go:
NDSU regular season record:
12-0 41.1%
11-1 41.6%
10-2 14.7%
9-3 2.4%
8-4 0.2%
7-5 0.01%
6-6 0.0001%
5-7 0.000001%
4-8 0.000000001%
opponent chance spread
@ Ill St. 88.5% -16.5
v. UNI... 88.5% -16.5
v. Mo St 99.7% -37.0
@ SDSU 66.9%. -6.0
@ YSU.. 85.7% -14.5
v. W Ill. 99.6% -36.5
v. USD.. 97.3% -26.5
v. S Ill.. 94.7% -22.0
Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.
Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
Mo Valley: 4 (NDSU 1, SDSU 2, UNI 5, YSU 7)
Big Sky: 3 (Montana 4, Weber 6, EWU 8)
Colonial: 1 (JMU 3)
Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
Big Sky: 6 (Mt St, UCD, Sac St, Id St)
Mo Valley: 5 (Ill St, USD)
Colonial: 2 (Villanova, Towson)
Southland: 1 (SHSU) C Akr
Last 4 in:
Big Sky (Sac St)
Big Sky (Id St)
Southland (SHSU)
Mo Valley (USD)
First 4 out:
Southland (Nicholls)
Colonial (Maine)
Mo Valley (S Ill)
Colonial (Delaware)
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie