2019 Sagarin Says

[ByeSonBusiness]

Would be nice to get a sort of rubber match against them.

Both "recent" games with JMU have been worth watching. Really all I can ask for at this point is someone to rise to the challenge.

[heffray]

That drop off after #1 though...

Yeah... I didn't NEED to put the NDSU stats on there... but I did. Because I care.

[Christopher Moen]

Remember when NDSU played JMU in the 2017 natty? Their only common opponent that year was SDSU who NDSU lost to by 2 TDs and who JMU beat by pretty much infinity. Common opponents isn't any better of a gauge than stats are. That's why they play the games.

The nice thing about stats is they take into account every game so you can see tendencies beyond just what happened in a game or two. Bottom line is JMU has a better run defense this year than NDSU does. If you want to write off the fact that NDSU has given up double the rushing yards per game that JMU has given up as just due to competition level you're really reaching in my estimation.

The main stat that needed to brought up in the SDSU games is turnovers.

[Rock]

If I was going to beat the Bison, I would hurry up, and spread out. Increase snaps for increased chance of variance-outlier plays occurring both ways. Both playbooks only go so deep- so let’s hope to push them into using something they aren’t as good at.

Does Alabama loose to Auburn if Alabama doesn’t throw a pick 6 from their scoring 5? 14 point swing.

Get Jabril consistently out of the box splitting out a receiver. Make them show their blitz when it is coming. Keep my qb from being hit by getting the ball out, and dipping into wildcat randomly from third quarter on.

NDSU is the better talented team and likely better coached. I don’t want them subbing in, getting time to adjust, so use my skill guys out wide. Don’t play for anything behind my line of scrimmage (reverse, play action) as this would increase chances for a big play their way- fumble behind the line.

When I do throw a pick I want it deep down field. Chuck the pigskin guy/chip kelly would be the perfect coach for UND’s goal (chance to beat NDSU once in a while, and no championships).

Hope for an increased number of snaps- especially if I can take an early lead and force NDSU to hurry up a bit to retake the lead.

With extra plays maybe I get that random broken play/long score, pick six, kick return, fumble, fake punt etc that goes my way for a real variance in scoring swing/outcome.

When they are the better team- particularly better line play, I need more snaps for the big “weird” events to occur.

K state and Iowa didn’t realize that NDSU had the superior line for a true trench battle. If the game is more spread out, NDSU doesn’t get to smash mouths as often and set up for the 4th quarter ground attack.

That is not as much reliant on the number of plays in the game, but number of head bashing plays. I don’t want to create any more of them for my guys.

IF I manage to have the lead by 2 scores under 10 minutes in the 4th, then I start to sit on it offensively because that is when I want less variance. (35-40 seconds per play). My guys haven’t been bashed up all game by my own doing so I might get some 1st downs straight rushing after playing wide open all game and tiring their backfield some.

Now defensive variability is in my favor because I know NDSU will throw more and I could get a pick to help seal things- I would start blitzing here and force them to make faster decisions on their pass plays.

I think my chances to BEAT NDSU Smash Mouth are maybe 15% in a slow out game if I have a good team with good lines (JMU, SDSU). That 15% win is generally because some bigger variable (turnover margin, yards per pass attempt) still went my way.

Open it up, throw in some wildcat, I think that improves to 20%. If my goal is to keep it close when I loose- smash mouth against them it is.

If I don’t put NDSU in a position to put the ball in the air- my chances for an odd ball interception are 0.

This is not a way to consistently win due to relying on big outlier play variance, but is a way to create a punchers shot against a better team. Create more fatigue and see what kinda weird stuff occurs.

The 80% of the time i loose it results in getting my butt handed to me even worse.

Teams that play wide open consistently and win consistently are the MUCH more talented team. However the big play variables they create for themselves cause them to lay a weird egg out of nowhere.

Better teams should take the random chance variables out of the game by running clock and punting until the 50. Field position plays a major role for how/when the better team has a statistically positive opportunity to score.


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[tony]

You could make an argument they aren't even #3.

SHSU:
Regular Season Record: 76-25 (0.7525)
Playoff Berths: 7
Playoff Record: 16-7 (0.6957)
Championship appearances: 2
Championships won: 0

Sam Houston State - so close to 100 wins this decade. Got stopped at 99 though.

[Vet70]

Sam Houston State - so close to 100 wins this decade. Got stopped at 99 though.

Ah, those loses to UND.

[ByeSonBusiness]

If I was going to beat the Bison, I would hurry up, and spread out. Increase snaps for increased chance of variance-outlier plays occurring both ways. Both playbooks only go so deep- so let’s hope to push them into using something they aren’t as good at.

Does Alabama loose to Auburn if Alabama doesn’t throw a pick 6 from their scoring 5? 14 point swing.

Get Jabril consistently out of the box splitting out a receiver. Make them show their blitz when it is coming. Keep my qb from being hit by getting the ball out, and dipping into wildcat randomly from third quarter on.

NDSU is the better talented team and likely better coached. I don’t want them subbing in, getting time to adjust, so use my skill guys out wide. Don’t play for anything behind my line of scrimmage (reverse, play action) as this would increase chances for a big play their way- fumble behind the line.

When I do throw a pick I want it deep down field. Chuck the pigskin guy/chip kelly would be the perfect coach for UND’s goal (chance to beat NDSU once in a while, and no championships).

Hope for an increased number of snaps- especially if I can take an early lead and force NDSU to hurry up a bit to retake the lead.

With extra plays maybe I get that random broken play/long score, pick six, kick return, fumble, fake punt etc that goes my way for a real variance in scoring swing/outcome.

When they are the better team- particularly better line play, I need more snaps for the big “weird” events to occur.

K state and Iowa didn’t realize that NDSU had the superior line for a true trench battle. If the game is more spread out, NDSU doesn’t get to smash mouths as often and set up for the 4th quarter ground attack.

That is not as much reliant on the number of plays in the game, but number of head bashing plays. I don’t want to create any more of them for my guys.

IF I manage to have the lead by 2 scores under 10 minutes in the 4th, then I start to sit on it offensively because that is when I want less variance. (35-40 seconds per play). My guys haven’t been bashed up all game by my own doing so I might get some 1st downs straight rushing after playing wide open all game and tiring their backfield some.

Now defensive variability is in my favor because I know NDSU will throw more and I could get a pick to help seal things- I would start blitzing here and force them to make faster decisions on their pass plays.

I think my chances to BEAT NDSU Smash Mouth are maybe 15% in a slow out game if I have a good team with good lines (JMU, SDSU). That 15% win is generally because some bigger variable (turnover margin, yards per pass attempt) still went my way.

Open it up, throw in some wildcat, I think that improves to 20%. If my goal is to keep it close when I loose- smash mouth against them it is.

If I don’t put NDSU in a position to put the ball in the air- my chances for an odd ball interception are 0.

This is not a way to consistently win due to relying on big outlier play variance, but is a way to create a punchers shot against a better team. Create more fatigue and see what kinda weird stuff occurs.

The 80% of the time i loose it results in getting my butt handed to me even worse.

Teams that play wide open consistently and win consistently are the MUCH more talented team. However the big play variables they create for themselves cause them to lay a weird egg out of nowhere.

Better teams should take the random chance variables out of the game by running clock and punting until the 50. Field position plays a major role for how/when the better team has a statistically positive opportunity to score.


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From a statistical point of view, I'm pretty sure increasing the number of plays should end up resulting in a larger sample size and allow the better team to end up asserting their will on the game.

Fewer snaps allows for outliers to play a bigger role I think. Hence why a lot of games are close for a quarter or a half? Need audit to step in here.

[CAS4127]

If I was going to beat the Bison, I would hurry up, and spread out. Increase snaps for increased chance of variance-outlier plays occurring both ways. Both playbooks only go so deep- so let’s hope to push them into using something they aren’t as good at.

Does Alabama loose to Auburn if Alabama doesn’t throw a pick 6 from their scoring 5? 14 point swing.

Get Jabril consistently out of the box splitting out a receiver. Make them show their blitz when it is coming. Keep my qb from being hit by getting the ball out, and dipping into wildcat randomly from third quarter on.

NDSU is the better talented team and likely better coached. I don’t want them subbing in, getting time to adjust, so use my skill guys out wide. Don’t play for anything behind my line of scrimmage (reverse, play action) as this would increase chances for a big play their way- fumble behind the line.

When I do throw a pick I want it deep down field. Chuck the pigskin guy/chip kelly would be the perfect coach for UND’s goal (chance to beat NDSU once in a while, and no championships).

Hope for an increased number of snaps- especially if I can take an early lead and force NDSU to hurry up a bit to retake the lead.

With extra plays maybe I get that random broken play/long score, pick six, kick return, fumble, fake punt etc that goes my way for a real variance in scoring swing/outcome.

When they are the better team- particularly better line play, I need more snaps for the big “weird” events to occur.

K state and Iowa didn’t realize that NDSU had the superior line for a true trench battle. If the game is more spread out, NDSU doesn’t get to smash mouths as often and set up for the 4th quarter ground attack.

That is not as much reliant on the number of plays in the game, but number of head bashing plays. I don’t want to create any more of them for my guys.

IF I manage to have the lead by 2 scores under 10 minutes in the 4th, then I start to sit on it offensively because that is when I want less variance. (35-40 seconds per play). My guys haven’t been bashed up all game by my own doing so I might get some 1st downs straight rushing after playing wide open all game and tiring their backfield some.

Now defensive variability is in my favor because I know NDSU will throw more and I could get a pick to help seal things- I would start blitzing here and force them to make faster decisions on their pass plays.

I think my chances to BEAT NDSU Smash Mouth are maybe 15% in a slow out game if I have a good team with good lines (JMU, SDSU). That 15% win is generally because some bigger variable (turnover margin, yards per pass attempt) still went my way.

Open it up, throw in some wildcat, I think that improves to 20%. If my goal is to keep it close when I loose- smash mouth against them it is.

If I don’t put NDSU in a position to put the ball in the air- my chances for an odd ball interception are 0.

This is not a way to consistently win due to relying on big outlier play variance, but is a way to create a punchers shot against a better team. Create more fatigue and see what kinda weird stuff occurs.

The 80% of the time i loose it results in getting my butt handed to me even worse.

Teams that play wide open consistently and win consistently are the MUCH more talented team. However the big play variables they create for themselves cause them to lay a weird egg out of nowhere.

Better teams should take the random chance variables out of the game by running clock and punting until the 50. Field position plays a major role for how/when the better team has a statistically positive opportunity to score.


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The only thing that defends this post is its length.


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[bisonaudit]

I get that and I do think that JMU is probably the #2-3 team but I am mostly poking holes in the idea that when teams don't pay each other or the same competition or even the same level of competition, stats is not an accurate way to compare two teams. Remember we played the best defense in the country last year when Colgate came to town.

Gotcha. Agree.

[bisonaudit]

From a statistical point of view, I'm pretty sure increasing the number of plays should end up resulting in a larger sample size and allow the better team to end up asserting their will on the game.

Fewer snaps allows for outliers to play a bigger role I think. Hence why a lot of games are close for a quarter or a half? Need audit to step in here.

Yes, you are correct, Chubbs has the notion of variance backward. Though, I will say that with the way NDSU has preferred to play historically, it’s not out of line to suggest that hurrying up could expose certain vulnerabilities or at least prevent NDSU from taking full advantage of certain strengths, defensive depth comes to mind.