Seems like both IL State and UNI should have better chances than 21% and 18%?Playoff picture:
Sagarin (Seed) Team........... Rd1... Rd2... Qtr..... Semi... Final
76.49 (1) North Dakota State......... 98.7% 96.6% 86.5% 62.0%
51.27 Nicholls State............. 57.8% 0.8%.. 0.4%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
50.93 North Dakota............. 42.2% 0.5%... 0.2%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
50.43 (8) Central Arkansas............. 61.0%. 1.6%.. 0.3%.. 0.0%
50.43 SE Missouri State....... 50.0% 17.9%. 0.5%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
52.75 Illinois State.............. 50.0% 21.2%. 0.7%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
61.96 (5) Montana State................ 88.0% 41.5%.. 5.4%. 1.8%
51.12 Albany-NY.................. 58.0% 7.1%.. 1.5%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
50.72 Central Connecticut..... 42.0% 4.9%.. 0.9%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
62.40 (4) Sacramento State........... 86.6% 53.1%.. 7.3%.. 2.5%
51.25 Austin Peay................ 50.7% 6.0%.. 1.2%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
53.35 Furman...................... 49.3% 7.4%.. 1.9%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
62.49 (3) Weber State................... 81.4% 48.7% 11.6%.. 2.7%
56.75 Wofford.................... 73.0% 15.7%.. 5.2%.. 0.7%.. 0.1%
50.82 Kennesaw State.......... 27.0% 3.0%.. 0.6%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
62.67 (6) Montana........................ 83.0% 41.1% 11.6%.. 2.4%
53.48 SE Louisiana.............. 49.9% 7.4%... 1.7%. 0.2%.. 0.0%
55.85 Villanova................... 50.1% 9.6%... 2.8%. 0.4%.. 0.0%
63.66 (7) South Dakota State......... 80.4% 19.4%. 9.6%.. 2.2%
58.38 Northern Iowa........... 81.6% 18.3%.. 2.6%. 0.9%.. 0.1%
48.54 San Diego.................. 18.4% 1.3%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
71.69 (2) James Madison............... 96.9% 77.4% 62.9% 26.2%
52.39 Monmouth-NJ............. 76.4% 2.9%.. 0.5%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
45.00 Holy Cross................. 23.6% 0.2%... 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%