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Thread: 2019 Sagarin Says

  1. #571
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by bisonaudit View Post
    Bill Connelly is the guy behind this approach. He was at football outsiders before ESPN. A version of this model has been around for at least six years, though not applied to FCS before this season from what I can see. It’s pretty sophisticated stuff.
    Any idea how accurate it has been with FBS predictions, say compared to Sagarin, in the past?

  2. #572
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Meaty View Post
    I saw 5 dimes at NDSU -20.5.. Too much money being bet on Ill St.
    That is where it opened. Suspect the money will come in on NDSU and you will see the spread increase. I rushed to bet as i bet NDSU will be at least -24 at game time.

  3. #573
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan View Post
    That is where it opened. Suspect the money will come in on NDSU and you will see the spread increase. I rushed to bet as i bet NDSU will be at least -24 at game time.
    It was at NDSU -23 last night.

  4. #574
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Chaos View Post
    It was at NDSU -23 last night.
    Wow, missed that. I was looking most of the day and had not seen it until Sam had it on Twitter.

  5. #575
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan View Post
    Wow, missed that. I was looking most of the day and had not seen it until Sam had it on Twitter.
    He updated his HERO Sports article this morning at 8AM but he originally posted it last night at around 6PM with the 23 point spread.

  6. #576
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Chaos View Post
    He updated his HERO Sports article this morning at 8AM but he originally posted it last night at around 6PM with the 23 point spread.
    At 23 I would take the points.
    The only reason some people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.
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  7. #577
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by JDZ View Post
    Any idea how accurate it has been with FBS predictions, say compared to Sagarin, in the past?
    From what I’ve seen the FBS model was legit, but it seems as if this is a different model that even the author says hasn’t been performance tested. It could be the best thing since sliced bread but we don’t know yet. I think Connelly is good and with time and resources he can certainly build an interesting and informative FCS model. But his process is to work out loud, iterate in public, and publish about it as he goes. He’s very transparent about this and he’s tagged this model “very, very Beta”.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  8. #578
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Chaos View Post
    He updated his HERO Sports article this morning at 8AM but he originally posted it last night at around 6PM with the 23 point spread.
    Thanks. I think NDSU crushes these guys unless they learn to throw. Illinois St overvalued by the models right now due to incompetent defense.

  9. #579
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    JMU is favored in the SP+ because the model takes a few important things into account that should make Bison fans take notice:

    1. The Dukes Decade. Nuff said, this is good for at least 5pts.
    2. Did you know their last coach got an FBS offer to Charlotte about 2 weeks before Klieman got offered the much lower profile/quality Kansas State job?? Do you have any idea how much better that makes them than NDSU? Thats another 5pts, EASY.
    3. they've combined to win the last 8 nattys. throw on another 5pts.
    4. See #1. Add on another 3pts.

    The Bison have no F*CKING CHANCE
    1. The FCS was the Best option for NDSU for a very long time.
    2. As a general rule- the FCS sucks at football and has proven that is not committed to football at all.
    3. It's time to go FBS

  10. #580
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    89MTBISON is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Bison at #41.

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