JMU is such a wanna be and yet such shit talkers. They make me laugh.
JMU is such a wanna be and yet such shit talkers. They make me laugh.
NDSU regular season record:
12-0 57.1% +1.3%
11-1 37.9% +1.0%
10-2. 4.8%.. -2.0%
9-3... 0.2%.. -0.3%
8-4... 0.003%
7-5... 0.000005%
6-6... 0.000000002%
opponent chance spread
v. Mo St 99.9% -41.5 +0.1% -2.5
@ SDSU 66.1%. -5.5. -4.3% +1.5
@ YSU.. 92.0% -19.0 +0.8% -0.5
v. W Ill. 99.9% -44.0 +0.0% -1.0
v. USD.. 96.4% -24.5 -1.3% +2.5
v. S Ill.. 97.7% -27.0 +1.2% -2.5
Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.
Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
Mo Valley: 3 (NDSU 1, SDSU 2, UNI 5) no change from last week
Big Sky: 3 (Montana 4, Weber 7, Sac St 8) +1 from last week (Sac St, Weber 6)
Colonial: 1 (JMU 3) -1 from last week (Villanova 8)
Southern: 1 (Furman 6) no change from last week (Furman 7)
Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
Big Sky: 6 (Mt St, UCD, EWU, Id St), changes: Id St in UND* out
Mo Valley: 5 (YSU, Ill St, USD)
Colonial: 2 (Villanova, UNH), changes: UNH in Towson out
Southland: 1 (C Ark) Nicholls, changes: C Ark in SHSU out
Last 4 in:
Big Sky (Mt St)
Big Sky (EWU)
Southland (C Ark)
Colonial (UNH)
First 4 out:
Colonial (Towson)
Southern (Wofford)
Big Sky (PSU)
Colonial (Elon)
FYI: just assuming at this point that the team with the top rating in each conference will win the autobid.
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
Top 25 per Sagarin:
35 North Dakota State AA = 76.72 6 0 49.17( 156) 0 0 | 0 0 | 75.30 42 | 77.56 34 | 76.63 37 MISSOURI VALLEY
71 South Dakota State AA = 68.69 5 1 43.52( 190) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.73 74 | 69.26 69 | 68.33 73 MISSOURI VALLEY
81 James Madison AA = 66.51 6 1 46.95( 162) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.90 84 | 66.50 79 | 68.32 74 COLONIAL
82 Montana AA = 66.19 5 1 53.24( 140) 0 1 | 0 1 | 66.42 83 | 65.30 84 | 70.57 61 BIG SKY
102 Northern Iowa AA = 60.22 3 3 60.04( 109) 0 0 | 0 1 | 59.96 101 | 60.48 100 | 58.97 106 MISSOURI VALLEY
112 Furman AA = 58.24 4 2 45.50( 174) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.38 109 | 57.09 119 | 60.45 102 SOUTHERN
114 Weber State AA = 57.76 4 2 52.34( 143) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.60 117 | 58.00 116 | 60.21 103 BIG SKY
115 Dartmouth AA = 57.74 4 0 34.92( 235) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.73 116 | 57.91 117 | 59.96 105 IVY LEAGUE
120 Sacramento State AA = 56.83 4 2 58.82( 115) 0 0 | 0 1 | 59.15 111 | 54.37 131 | 62.98 90 BIG SKY
123 Princeton AA = 56.13 4 0 26.28( 254) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.14 126 | 56.68 122 | 55.93 124 IVY LEAGUE
124 Illinois State AA = 55.80 4 2 46.67( 166) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.19 135 | 57.28 118 | 56.05 123 MISSOURI VALLEY
126 Youngstown State AA = 55.26 4 2 42.80( 196) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.72 123 | 54.96 126 | 54.78 131 MISSOURI VALLEY
127 Villanova AA = 55.17 6 1 41.74( 204) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.23 130 | 55.16 124 | 58.27 109 COLONIAL
128 Idaho State AA = 55.16 3 3 61.31( 101) 0 0 | 0 1 | 56.39 119 | 53.81 133 | 58.27 108 BIG SKY
129 UC Davis AA = 55.02 3 4 54.61( 134) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.70 124 | 54.66 128 | 54.00 136 BIG SKY
131 South Dakota AA = 54.76 3 3 46.63( 167) 0 1 | 0 1 | 54.98 127 | 54.49 130 | 54.93 129 MISSOURI VALLEY
133 Kennesaw State AA = 54.17 5 1 38.94( 219) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.45 129 | 53.77 134 | 54.96 128 BIG SOUTH
134 Montana State AA = 53.70 5 2 45.57( 172) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.86 136 | 53.98 132 | 54.58 132 BIG SKY
136 Eastern Washington AA = 53.56 3 4 51.00( 150) 0 0 | 0 1 | 54.90 128 | 53.02 137 | 51.15 143 BIG SKY
137 Nicholls State AA = 52.71 4 2 46.68( 165) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.75 140 | 53.43 135 | 55.07 127 SOUTHLAND
138 Central Arkansas AA = 51.32 4 2 52.57( 142) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.27 147 | 52.37 138 | 51.87 140 SOUTHLAND
139 New Hampshire AA = 51.06 4 2 46.32( 169) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.47 144 | 51.44 139 | 54.04 135 COLONIAL
140 Towson AA = 50.98 3 3 47.32( 159) 0 0 | 0 1 | 52.16 138 | 50.73 142 | 47.18 157 COLONIAL
141 Wofford AA = 50.45 3 2 38.14( 223) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.98 139 | 49.73 145 | 48.33 150 SOUTHERN
144 Tennessee-Martin AA = 49.79 4 2 43.34( 192) 0 0 | 0 1 | 50.71 141 | 48.51 152 | 53.41 137 OHIO VALLEY
It always seems to happen that in these "crap" games, someone we can't afford to get hurt, does. One example, Wentz vs. USD
Big Fluffy the second best conference?
Just because I can do the math doesn't mean what I end up with actually means anything. For whatever reason it always bugs me when JMU fans shit talk the MVFC and how down it is and how they deserve to be ranked high because the CAA is so tough. The last few weeks I have looked at the Sagarin top 25 in the FCS and thought how obvious it is that the best of the MVFC are better than the best of the CAA, but what surprised me when I dug a little deeper is that the Big Sky appears to be stronger than the CAA as well. More teams in the top 25, higher average ranking and higher median ranking than the CAA would lead me to believe they are a stronger conference as a whole this year.
Now I just need some math/stat folks to tell me why my numbers, even though mathematically correct(I hope ) don't actually mean what they look like they mean.
CONFERENCE | # OF TEAMS | AVERAGE RANKING | MEDIAN RANKING
MVFC | 6 | 7.83 | 11.5
Big Fluffy | 7 | 12.29 | 14
CAA | 4 | 15.25 | 17.5