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Thread: 2019 Sagarin Says

  1. #541
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Score more than your opponents and you will win.
    The only reason some people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.
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  2. #542
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    T've wondered about the typical Bison plan of running down the play clock. One one hand, if you have more depth, why not run more plays to wear out the other team where the talent gap is even bigger comparing second stringers. On the other hand, it's a long season and running fewer plays keeps players fresher at playoff time.


    Quote Originally Posted by ByeSonBusiness View Post
    From a statistical point of view, I'm pretty sure increasing the number of plays should end up resulting in a larger sample size and allow the better team to end up asserting their will on the game.

    Fewer snaps allows for outliers to play a bigger role I think. Hence why a lot of games are close for a quarter or a half? Need audit to step in here.
    Wherever you go, there you are.

  3. #543
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    By your logic Auburn must have been the better team because there were a lot of plays in that game.

    Auburn also scored twice on interceptions. Alabama missed a field goal and had a kick return touchdown- random events.

    How would you coach a superior basketball team with no shot clock?

    Yes Alabama could win by much more against Auburn most of the time opening the game up. Maybe a pick 6 goes their way with another snap. Unfortunately for them they just ran outta time.


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  4. #544
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Chaos View Post
    They've got bookend DEs that are both monsters. Think of it as if the Bison had 2 Derrek Tuszkas. John Daka has 12.5 sacks, 8 QB hurries, and 20.5 TFLs and then Rondell Carter has 9.5 sacks, 10 QB hurries, and 22.5 TFLs. So it's not exactly easy to pass on them either with those guys coming off the edges.

    Radunz and Volson, who've given up 0.5 sacks in 446 combined dropbacks this year, against those two DEs who have combined for 22 sacks and 43 TFLs would be quite the individual matchups. Unstoppable force meets immovable object.
    The stats of these two teams, which is backed up when you watch the games, just confirms these teams are head and shoulders above anyone else. This is a two headed race and there is little, if anything, another team is going to do to stop a JMU NDSU matchup.

    This may be the best JMU team of all time.
    Iím very interested to see the teams match up. Anyone else in the final is going to be a big disappointment. This is JMUs year to give us a run, as next year they probably wonít pose as much of a threat

  5. #545
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Hammerhead View Post
    T've wondered about the typical Bison plan of running down the play clock. One one hand, if you have more depth, why not run more plays to wear out the other team where the talent gap is even bigger comparing second stringers. On the other hand, it's a long season and running fewer plays keeps players fresher at playoff time.
    If you watch closely, they don't really do that as much anymore. Brock really milked the clock, now I don't think they run it down super far unless the game is clearly in hand and they're trying to run out the clock...even then there have been a few times they could have milked it more.

    To me if you think you have a superior team, you want to go faster (at least up to the point where you're "hurrying" and it will lead to mistakes) to maximize plays. The more plays there are, the more likely the superior team should win right (you might get 'lucky' on a few plays, but not over many plays)? But then once the game is pretty much in hand, run the clock out to keep your players fresh and move on. Even if the odds are in your favor on more plays (superior team) there is no sense giving them more chances when you're pretty much in control.
    Get your BB tickets now!!!

  6. #546
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Gully View Post
    If you watch closely, they don't really do that as much anymore. Brock really milked the clock, now I don't think they run it down super far unless the game is clearly in hand and they're trying to run out the clock...even then there have been a few times they could have milked it more.

    To me if you think you have a superior team, you want to go faster (at least up to the point where you're "hurrying" and it will lead to mistakes) to maximize plays. The more plays there are, the more likely the superior team should win right (you might get 'lucky' on a few plays, but not over many plays)? But then once the game is pretty much in hand, run the clock out to keep your players fresh and move on. Even if the odds are in your favor on more plays (superior team) there is no sense giving them more chances when you're pretty much in control.
    Yep. If the superior team goes fast enough it improves the weaker teams chances. There is a threshold that stats have a tough time accounting for.


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  7. #547
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    There is the factor of style of play. If a smash mouth team plays smash mouth for all 4 quarters they take an advantage into the 4th even if they donít have the lead.

    Bleeding clock throughout makes it attractive to attempt higher risk plays by the inferior team to score quickly (only have (2) 30 minute halves) and limited possessions/time to score. If a superior team has defensive strength this can significantly play to their advantage.


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  8. #548
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by I miss Chubs View Post
    By your logic Auburn must have been the better team because there were a lot of plays in that game.

    Auburn also scored twice on interceptions. Alabama missed a field goal and had a kick return touchdown- random events.

    How would you coach a superior basketball team with no shot clock?

    Yes Alabama could win by much more against Auburn most of the time opening the game up. Maybe a pick 6 goes their way with another snap. Unfortunately for them they just ran outta time.


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    How would I coach a superior basketball team with no shot clock? I'd play as fast as they were capable of sustaining.
    [COLOR=#252525][FONT=sans-serif]I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie[/FONT][/COLOR]

  9. #549
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    What is NDSU's strength? Over the past decade, there is no one at this level who score more points per yards nor scored more points per time they had the ball. Think about that for a moment. Their rate of scoring is better than anyone else in the country at the FCS level. Plus their aggregate TOP is either the best or right there near the top.

    So the best idea to beat this team would be to completely go balls out and play to their strength because maybe a mistake happens. The three things the Bison does better than anyone and the strategy is to let NDSU maximize that. Control the ball, more opportunities to score, and force you to play catch up.

    Nicholls had a chance playing an ugly game until they tried to air it out and threw interceptions. Instead of staying within striking distance, NDSU opened the game up. Don't bring the safeties down for run support because they aren't patient enough to play this kind of game when this kind of game gave them the best chance to win.

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  10. #550
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Playoff picture:

    Sagarin (Seed) Team............. Qtr..... Semi... Final
    76.41 (1) North Dakota State 95.0% 85.3% 58.1%
    56.37 Illinois State................ 5.0%.. 1.5%.. 0.3%

    62.86 (5) Montana State....... 73.0%. 11.1%. 3.5%

    56.90 Austin Peay................. 27.0%.. 2.2%.. 0.4%


    62.58 (3) Weber State.......... 51.1% 12.5%.. 2.6%

    64.52 (6) Montana............... 48.9% 13.9%.. 3.5%


    60.41 Northern Iowa............ 14.1%. 4.9%.. 0.8%
    72.63 (2) James Madison...... 85.9% 68.7% 30.9%
    [COLOR=#252525][FONT=sans-serif]I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie[/FONT][/COLOR]

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