2019 Sagarin Says

[MankatoBison]

SDSU seems to have trouble filling seats most of the time, but an open air stadium in 30-35 degree weather is seldom going to sell out. It was no different in the successful Bison DII days on Dacotah Field. The place was not full when the weather turned downward which could be any Saturday after mid-October.

I hear ya- but it doesnt stop Montana in the playoffs. SDSU has a top 10 fan base by my estimation, and they cant fill their stadium for a top ten matchup, or even get HALF the stadium full. Most every team in the valley cant fill their stadium EVER. like even 1x/yr. In fact, about 97% of the FCS cant fill their high school stadiums 1 FRICKEN time per year.

[Hammersmith]

I hear ya- but it doesnt stop Montana in the playoffs. SDSU has a top 10 fan base by my estimation, and they cant fill their stadium for a top ten matchup, or even get HALF the stadium full. Most every team in the valley cant fill their stadium EVER. like even 1x/yr. In fact, about 97% of the FCS cant fill their high school stadiums 1 FRICKEN time per year.

Sorry, but northern confirmation bias here. While the product on the field may be inferior, the HBCU's blow the doors off the northern schools when it comes to attendance. And that doesn't even count the giant 'classic' games at neutral sites. SDSU is not a top-10 fan base in FCS, and way more than 97% fill up their stadiums at least once. Try cutting out the hyperbole to support your arguments.

[NDSU92]

Sorry, but northern confirmation bias here. While the product on the field may be inferior, the HBCU's blow the doors off the northern schools when it comes to attendance. And that doesn't even count the giant 'classic' games at neutral sites. SDSU is not a top-10 fan base in FCS, and way more than 97% fill up their stadiums at least once. Try cutting out the hyperbole to support your arguments.

Are HBCU’s more honest in their reporting of attendance than the rest of FCS?

Pretty much every school that makes the playoffs has about a 50% reduction in attendance when the playoffs start. And it’s usually not from less butts in seats

[SoCalBison]

Man, Sagarin is slow to post its updated rankings today. Is there a game today that's delaying it?

[SoCalBison]

Finally posted, Bison move up 4 slots to #35 after a solid win over USD.

[23Bison]

What sucks is that we probably won’t move up at all if we beat SIU. Was hoping we would be on the cusp of the high 20s before the playoffs start.

[gumby013]

Sagarin has us at ~19 point favorites at SIU. Beat them by 40 and we will move up a little.

[23Bison]

I hope so.

[bisonaudit]

NDSU regular season record:
12-0 92.7% +2.5%
11-1.. 7.3%. -2.3%


opponent chance spread
@ S Ill 92.7% -19.5 -22.0 +0.7% -0.5

Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.

Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
Mo Valley: 3 (NDSU 1, SDSU 3, UNI 7) -1 from last week (SDSU 5, Ill St 8)
Big Sky: 4 (Mont 4, Weber 5, Sac St 6, Mt St 8) +1 from last week (Mont 3, Weber 4, Mt St)
Colonial: 1 (JMU 2) no change from last week

Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
Big Sky: 5 (EWU, UCD)
Mo Valley: 4 (Ill St, S Ill)
Colonial: 3 (Towson, Villanova, Maine)
Big South: 1 (Kennesaw) Monmouth, changes Kennesaw in
Southern: 1 (Furman) Wofford
Southland: 0 SE La, changes: SHSU out

Last 4 in:
Southern (Furman)
Big Sky (Davis)
Colonial (Maine)
Big S (Kennesaw)

First 4 out:
Ohio V (SE Mo)
Mo Valley (USD)
Colonial (Albany)
Sland (Nicholls)
FYI: clinched autobids are included as such, for conferences yet to be decided the above assumes the team with the highest Sagarin rating in the conference will receive the autobid.

[89MTBISON]

Amazing how the Big Fluffy has resurrected itself. Must be CBD.