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Thread: 2019 Sagarin Says

  1. #221
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    JMU is such a wanna be and yet such shit talkers. They make me laugh.

  2. #222
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by WhoRepsTheLurker View Post
    Has us 6th in the G5 right now
    I think we give any of these guys a game

    22 BSU
    25 UCF
    27 Cincinnati
    33 Appy State
    34 Memphis
    35 NDSU
    We would go 4-1 against that schedule, all on the road.

  3. #223
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    NDSU regular season record:
    12-0 57.1% +1.3%
    11-1 37.9% +1.0%
    10-2. 4.8%.. -2.0%
    9-3... 0.2%.. -0.3%
    8-4... 0.003%
    7-5... 0.000005%
    6-6... 0.000000002%

    opponent chance spread
    v. Mo St 99.9% -41.5 +0.1% -2.5
    @ SDSU 66.1%. -5.5. -4.3% +1.5
    @ YSU.. 92.0% -19.0 +0.8% -0.5
    v. W Ill. 99.9% -44.0 +0.0% -1.0
    v. USD.. 96.4% -24.5 -1.3% +2.5
    v. S Ill.. 97.7% -27.0 +1.2% -2.5

    Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.

    Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
    Mo Valley: 3 (NDSU 1, SDSU 2, UNI 5) no change from last week
    Big Sky: 3 (Montana 4, Weber 7, Sac St 8) +1 from last week (Sac St, Weber 6)
    Colonial: 1 (JMU 3) -1 from last week (Villanova 8)
    Southern: 1 (Furman 6) no change from last week (Furman 7)

    Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
    Big Sky: 6 (Mt St, UCD, EWU, Id St), changes: Id St in UND* out
    Mo Valley: 5 (YSU, Ill St, USD)
    Colonial: 2 (Villanova, UNH), changes: UNH in Towson out
    Southland: 1 (C Ark) Nicholls, changes: C Ark in SHSU out

    Last 4 in:
    Big Sky (Mt St)
    Big Sky (EWU)
    Southland (C Ark)
    Colonial (UNH)

    First 4 out:
    Colonial (Towson)
    Southern (Wofford)
    Big Sky (PSU)
    Colonial (Elon)

    FYI: just assuming at this point that the team with the top rating in each conference will win the autobid.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  4. #224
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Top 25 per Sagarin:

    35 North Dakota State AA = 76.72 6 0 49.17( 156) 0 0 | 0 0 | 75.30 42 | 77.56 34 | 76.63 37 MISSOURI VALLEY
    71 South Dakota State AA = 68.69 5 1 43.52( 190) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.73 74 | 69.26 69 | 68.33 73 MISSOURI VALLEY

    81 James Madison AA = 66.51 6 1 46.95( 162) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.90 84 | 66.50 79 | 68.32 74 COLONIAL
    82 Montana AA = 66.19 5 1 53.24( 140) 0 1 | 0 1 | 66.42 83 | 65.30 84 | 70.57 61 BIG SKY
    102 Northern Iowa AA = 60.22 3 3 60.04( 109) 0 0 | 0 1 | 59.96 101 | 60.48 100 | 58.97 106 MISSOURI VALLEY
    112 Furman AA = 58.24 4 2 45.50( 174) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.38 109 | 57.09 119 | 60.45 102 SOUTHERN
    114 Weber State AA = 57.76 4 2 52.34( 143) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.60 117 | 58.00 116 | 60.21 103 BIG SKY
    115 Dartmouth AA = 57.74 4 0 34.92( 235) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.73 116 | 57.91 117 | 59.96 105 IVY LEAGUE
    120 Sacramento State AA = 56.83 4 2 58.82( 115) 0 0 | 0 1 | 59.15 111 | 54.37 131 | 62.98 90 BIG SKY
    123 Princeton AA = 56.13 4 0 26.28( 254) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.14 126 | 56.68 122 | 55.93 124 IVY LEAGUE
    124 Illinois State AA = 55.80 4 2 46.67( 166) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.19 135 | 57.28 118 | 56.05 123 MISSOURI VALLEY
    126 Youngstown State AA = 55.26 4 2 42.80( 196) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.72 123 | 54.96 126 | 54.78 131 MISSOURI VALLEY

    127 Villanova AA = 55.17 6 1 41.74( 204) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.23 130 | 55.16 124 | 58.27 109 COLONIAL
    128 Idaho State AA = 55.16 3 3 61.31( 101) 0 0 | 0 1 | 56.39 119 | 53.81 133 | 58.27 108 BIG SKY
    129 UC Davis AA = 55.02 3 4 54.61( 134) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.70 124 | 54.66 128 | 54.00 136 BIG SKY
    131 South Dakota AA = 54.76 3 3 46.63( 167) 0 1 | 0 1 | 54.98 127 | 54.49 130 | 54.93 129 MISSOURI VALLEY
    133 Kennesaw State AA = 54.17 5 1 38.94( 219) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.45 129 | 53.77 134 | 54.96 128 BIG SOUTH
    134 Montana State AA = 53.70 5 2 45.57( 172) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.86 136 | 53.98 132 | 54.58 132 BIG SKY
    136 Eastern Washington AA = 53.56 3 4 51.00( 150) 0 0 | 0 1 | 54.90 128 | 53.02 137 | 51.15 143 BIG SKY
    137 Nicholls State AA = 52.71 4 2 46.68( 165) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.75 140 | 53.43 135 | 55.07 127 SOUTHLAND
    138 Central Arkansas AA = 51.32 4 2 52.57( 142) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.27 147 | 52.37 138 | 51.87 140 SOUTHLAND
    139 New Hampshire AA = 51.06 4 2 46.32( 169) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.47 144 | 51.44 139 | 54.04 135 COLONIAL
    140 Towson AA = 50.98 3 3 47.32( 159) 0 0 | 0 1 | 52.16 138 | 50.73 142 | 47.18 157 COLONIAL
    141 Wofford AA = 50.45 3 2 38.14( 223) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.98 139 | 49.73 145 | 48.33 150 SOUTHERN
    144 Tennessee-Martin AA = 49.79 4 2 43.34( 192) 0 0 | 0 1 | 50.71 141 | 48.51 152 | 53.41 137 OHIO VALLEY

  5. #225
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by bisonaudit View Post
    opponent chance spread
    v. Mo St 99.9% -41.5 +0.1% -2.5
    v. W Ill. 99.9% -44.0 +0.0% -1.0
    The betting lines in these next two home games are just going to be stupid.... laying 40+ points to MVFC teams? Yuck. At least South Dakota is showing signs of life so hopefully we get at least one decent opponent in the Fargodome before playoff time.

  6. #226
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    It always seems to happen that in these "crap" games, someone we can't afford to get hurt, does. One example, Wentz vs. USD

  7. #227
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by southcliffbison View Post
    It always seems to happen that in these "crap" games, someone we can't afford to get hurt, does. One example, Wentz vs. USD
    for Missouri St and Western Illinois...... I say let Zeb Noland and 2nd team play the ENTIRE 2nd half regardless of score.
    I WANT TO THANK TONY < JAIL & EL CHAPO DONT MIX > FBS or BUST enough with this small timey stuff, "Bring on the Competition" is our motto right?

  8. #228
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Big Fluffy the second best conference?

    Just because I can do the math doesn't mean what I end up with actually means anything. For whatever reason it always bugs me when JMU fans shit talk the MVFC and how down it is and how they deserve to be ranked high because the CAA is so tough. The last few weeks I have looked at the Sagarin top 25 in the FCS and thought how obvious it is that the best of the MVFC are better than the best of the CAA, but what surprised me when I dug a little deeper is that the Big Sky appears to be stronger than the CAA as well. More teams in the top 25, higher average ranking and higher median ranking than the CAA would lead me to believe they are a stronger conference as a whole this year.

    Now I just need some math/stat folks to tell me why my numbers, even though mathematically correct(I hope ) don't actually mean what they look like they mean.

    CONFERENCE | # OF TEAMS | AVERAGE RANKING | MEDIAN RANKING
    MVFC | 6 | 7.83 | 11.5
    Big Fluffy | 7 | 12.29 | 14
    CAA | 4 | 15.25 | 17.5

  9. #229
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by TAILG8R View Post
    Big Fluffy the second best conference?

    Just because I can do the math doesn't mean what I end up with actually means anything. For whatever reason it always bugs me when JMU fans shit talk the MVFC and how down it is and how they deserve to be ranked high because the CAA is so tough. The last few weeks I have looked at the Sagarin top 25 in the FCS and thought how obvious it is that the best of the MVFC are better than the best of the CAA, but what surprised me when I dug a little deeper is that the Big Sky appears to be stronger than the CAA as well. More teams in the top 25, higher average ranking and higher median ranking than the CAA would lead me to believe they are a stronger conference as a whole this year.

    Now I just need some math/stat folks to tell me why my numbers, even though mathematically correct(I hope ) don't actually mean what they look like they mean.

    CONFERENCE | # OF TEAMS | AVERAGE RANKING | MEDIAN RANKING
    MVFC | 6 | 7.83 | 11.5
    Big Fluffy | 7 | 12.29 | 14
    CAA | 4 | 15.25 | 17.5
    Sagarin does a great job of breaking down the conferences. By all his metrics, it’s MVFC, Big Sky, CAA.

    Man those CAA guys have short memories though. Someone go bring up last year’s first round of the playoffs. The only CAA teams who won were playing other CAA teams.

  10. #230
    Join Date
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by TAILG8R View Post
    Big Fluffy the second best conference?

    Just because I can do the math doesn't mean what I end up with actually means anything. For whatever reason it always bugs me when JMU fans shit talk the MVFC and how down it is and how they deserve to be ranked high because the CAA is so tough. The last few weeks I have looked at the Sagarin top 25 in the FCS and thought how obvious it is that the best of the MVFC are better than the best of the CAA, but what surprised me when I dug a little deeper is that the Big Sky appears to be stronger than the CAA as well. More teams in the top 25, higher average ranking and higher median ranking than the CAA would lead me to believe they are a stronger conference as a whole this year.

    Now I just need some math/stat folks to tell me why my numbers, even though mathematically correct(I hope ) don't actually mean what they look like they mean.

    CONFERENCE | # OF TEAMS | AVERAGE RANKING | MEDIAN RANKING
    MVFC | 6 | 7.83 | 11.5
    Big Fluffy | 7 | 12.29 | 14
    CAA | 4 | 15.25 | 17.5
    Maybe just maybe JMU isn't as good as they thought they were that's why teams are playing them close.

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