I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
This is correct also. My analysis is static. It’s performed at a point in time for all future games without updating for the “results” of simulated games. More sophisticated, chained models, like those at fivethirtyeight.com for example, update their assumptions dynamically as they progress chronologically through the simulation. So their model would simulated this Saturday’s games, feed those results back into their assessment of team strength and then use that new assessment to simulate the next week, etc. The result is a wider spread of possible outcomes, that is closer to the true distribution.
Without the keys to Sagarin’s model I don’t think updating in that fashion is possible. With them it’s probably beyond my skills.
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
Bison 4 Life, yes, I get that the predictor changes each week, I was asking about hte math given the current results.
Thanks Audit.
I wonder if they really are totally independent. For example, would NDSU losing on Saturday cause them to refocus, change some strategies, etc. that would increase their odds in the future? Or could a close loss be demoralizing and cause a team to spiral downward? Probably no way to know, just sharing the stream of thoughts/questions going through my mind.
The real question we need answers to is how would beer and beyond meat sales on the concourse impact the outcomes in the FFD. I think El Chapo, Audit and GOB1SON should collaborate on an interdiciplinary research effort to answer this important question. I'll proofread the final paper as long as I'm supplied with ample Natural Light Hard Seltzer and Pizza Patrol.
Get your BB tickets now!!!
If you multiply all the chances that we win each game together, you arrive at 41.1% or chance at going 12-0. To go 11-1 would somehow depend on our chance to win that game to determine our percentage.
Combinations and permutations.
For 1 loss you need loss percentage for the games as well (1-win%). You’re looking for exactly one loss. It could be any of the 8 remaining games. So you multiply through the list 8 times substituting the loss% in for one game each time, and add up the 8 products to get the result.
I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud
We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie
https://247sports-com.cdn.ampproject...s-136429740%2F
I thought this article did a much better job of using metric to rank teams.
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Up to 33.
76 - SDSU
82 - JMU
84 - Montana
98 - UNI
Has us as ~20 point favorites vs UNI at home.
Looking good Billy Ray!