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Thread: 2019 Sagarin Says

  1. #251
    23Bison's Avatar
    23Bison is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    (39) so gross
    Run the damn ball!! PRO FBS

  2. #252
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Fell just as far beating ISU by 400 than beating MSU by 22

  3. #253
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Could've been worse... actually got some help from previous opponents like Delaware and UNI.

    Previous NDSU opponents went 5-1 on Saturday (only one to lose was Butler). No idea how they did against their Sagarin projected spreads but I'd guess that UC Davis and UND might've still slightly underperformed despite winning.

  4. #254
    stevdock is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by bisonaudit View Post
    NDSU regular season record:
    12-0 55.8%. -1.3%
    11-1 39.0% +1.1%
    10-2.. 5.0% +0.2%
    9-3... .0.2% +0.0%
    8-4... 0.004%
    7-5... 0.000003%

    opponent chance spread
    @ SDSU 64.5%. -5.0 -1.6% +0.5
    @ YSU.. 94.3% -21.5 +2.3% -2.5
    v. W Ill.. 99.9% -42.5 -0.0% +1.5
    v. USD.. 96.2% -24.0 -0.2% +0.5
    v. S Ill.. 95.4% -23.0 -2.3% +4.0

    Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.

    Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
    Mo Valley: 3 (NDSU 1, SDSU 3, UNI 6) no change from last week (SDSU 2, UNI 5)
    Big Sky: 3 (Montana 4, Sac St 5, Weber 7) no change from last week (Sac St 8)
    Colonial: 2 (JMU 2, Villanova 8) +1 from last week (Villanova, JMU 3)
    Southern: 0 -1 from last week (Furman 6)

    Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
    Big Sky: 6 (Mt St, UCD, EWU, Id St)
    Mo Valley: 5 (YSU, Ill St, USD)
    Colonial: 2 (Towson), changes: Towson in UNH out
    Southern: 1 (Wofford) Furman

    Last 4 in:
    Colonial (Towson)
    Mo Valley (YSU)
    Big Sky (Id St)
    Southern (Wofford)

    First 4 out:
    Southland (Nicholls)
    Mo Valley (S Ill)
    Southland (C Ark)
    Colonial (UNH)

    FYI: just assuming at this point that the team with the top rating in each conference will win the autobid.
    I don't know if this changes the numbers much, but SIU is a road game.

  5. #255
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by stevdock View Post
    I don't know if this changes the numbers much, but SIU is a road game.
    Good catch, thanks. It’s a typo in the output, I’ve confirmed that it’s correct in the calculations.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  6. #256
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    I’m interested in seeing what the this weekend does to our Sagarin rating. Everyone we beat but Missouri State and Delaware won today. Check that, UCD lost in OT.
    Run the damn ball!! PRO FBS

  7. #257
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Eastern Washington cannot get to the mythical 7 Div 1 wins.

  8. #258
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    NDSU regular season record:
    12-0 85.8% +30.0%
    11-1 13.6%. -25.4%
    10-2.. 0.6%.. -4.3%
    9-3.... 0.01% -0.2%
    8-4.... 0.000004%

    opponent chance spread
    @ YSU.. 93.5%. -20.5 -0.8% +1.0
    v. W Ill.. 99.9% -45.5 +0.0%. -3.0
    v. USD.. 98.2% -28.5 +2.0%. -4.5
    @ S Ill.. 93.5% -20.5. -1.9% +2.5

    Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.

    Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
    Mo Valley: 4 (NDSU 1, SDSU 2, UNI 7, Ill St 8) +1 from last week (SDSU 3, UNI 6, Ill St)
    Big Sky: 3 (Montana 4, Sac St 5, Weber 6) no change from last week (Weber 7)
    Colonial: 1 (JMU 3) -1 from last week (Villanova 8, JMU 2)

    Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
    Big Sky: 5 (Mt St, UCD, EWU) changes: Id St out
    Mo Valley: 5 (YSU, S Ill) changes: S Ill in USD out
    Colonial: 3 (Villanova, Towson, Elon), changes: Elon in
    Southern: 1 (Wofford) Furman

    Last 4 in:
    Big Sky (Mt St)
    Colonial (Towson)
    Colonial (Elon)
    Southern (Wofford)

    First 4 out:
    Mo Valley (USD)
    Southland (SHSU)
    Colonial (Stony Brook)
    Colonial (UNH)

    FYI: just assuming at this point that the team with the top rating in each conference will win the autobid.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  9. #259
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    SDSU moves ahead of JMU with the loss. #Gameday
    Looking good Billy Ray!

  10. #260
    WeAreThePride is offline Senior DC Correspondent Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by 89MTBISON View Post
    Eastern Washington cannot get to the mythical 7 Div 1 wins.
    What the hell happened to them?

    They're a sub 500 team, and last year they looked like world beaters.

    Guess we're blessed with consistency. We're able to string together more than 1 or 2 good years in a row.

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