2019 Sagarin Says

[Herd]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team........... Rd1... Rd2... Qtr..... Semi... Final
76.49 (1) North Dakota State......... 98.7% 96.6% 86.5% 62.0%
51.27 Nicholls State............. 57.8% 0.8%.. 0.4%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
50.93 North Dakota............. 42.2% 0.5%... 0.2%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

50.43 (8) Central Arkansas............. 61.0%. 1.6%.. 0.3%.. 0.0%
50.43 SE Missouri State....... 50.0% 17.9%. 0.5%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
52.75 Illinois State.............. 50.0% 21.2%. 0.7%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%


61.96 (5) Montana State................ 88.0% 41.5%.. 5.4%. 1.8%
51.12 Albany-NY.................. 58.0% 7.1%.. 1.5%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
50.72 Central Connecticut..... 42.0% 4.9%.. 0.9%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

62.40 (4) Sacramento State........... 86.6% 53.1%.. 7.3%.. 2.5%
51.25 Austin Peay................ 50.7% 6.0%.. 1.2%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
53.35 Furman...................... 49.3% 7.4%.. 1.9%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%



62.49 (3) Weber State................... 81.4% 48.7% 11.6%.. 2.7%
56.75 Wofford.................... 73.0% 15.7%.. 5.2%.. 0.7%.. 0.1%
50.82 Kennesaw State.......... 27.0% 3.0%.. 0.6%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

62.67 (6) Montana........................ 83.0% 41.1% 11.6%.. 2.4%
53.48 SE Louisiana.............. 49.9% 7.4%... 1.7%. 0.2%.. 0.0%
55.85 Villanova................... 50.1% 9.6%... 2.8%. 0.4%.. 0.0%


63.66 (7) South Dakota State......... 80.4% 19.4%. 9.6%.. 2.2%
58.38 Northern Iowa........... 81.6% 18.3%.. 2.6%. 0.9%.. 0.1%
48.54 San Diego.................. 18.4% 1.3%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

71.69 (2) James Madison............... 96.9% 77.4% 62.9% 26.2%
52.39 Monmouth-NJ............. 76.4% 2.9%.. 0.5%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%
45.00 Holy Cross................. 23.6% 0.2%... 0.0%.. 0.0%. 0.0%

Seems like both IL State and UNI should have better chances than 21% and 18%?

[Rock]

Seems like both IL State and UNI should have better chances than 21% and 18%?

Guessing they will now after the round 1 win and those numbers included this risk of loosing round 1


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[bisonaudit]

Guessing they will now after the round 1 win and those numbers included this risk of loosing round 1


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Yes, but perhaps still smaller than some would expect because of both home field and bye week.

[bisonaudit]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team............. Rd2... Qtr..... Semi... Final
76.39 (1) North Dakota State 98.0% 95.2% 85.4% 61.4%
53.20 Nicholls State............... 2.0%.. 1.0%.. 0.2%. 0.0%

50.81 (8) Central Arkansas.... 52.6%. 1.6%.. 0.3%.. 0.0%
54.85 Illinois State............... 47.4%. 2.3%.. 0.6%.. 0.1%


61.71 (5) Montana State....... 83.8% 39.7%.. 5.5%. 1.8%
53.33 Albany-NY.................. 16.2%.. 4.2%.. 0.2%.. 0.0%

62.17 (4) Sacramento State.. 85.1% 52.4%.. 7.6%.. 2.6%
53.04 Austin Peay................ 14.9%.. 3.6%.. 0.2%.. 0.0%



62.49 (3) Weber State.......... 84.9% 50.9% 14.6%.. 3.0%
53.44 Kennesaw State.......... 15.1%.. 3.5%.. 0.3%.. 0.0%

62.66 (6) Montana............... 83.8% 41.2% 11.9%.. 2.5%
54.28 SE Louisiana.............. 16.2%... 4.5%. 0.5%.. 0.0%


63.60 (7) South Dakota State 75.8% 18.9%. 9.2%.. 2.1%
59.09 Northern Iowa............ 24.2%.. 3.9%. 1.4%.. 0.2%

71.60 (2) James Madison...... 95.5% 76.3% 61.8% 26.1%
53.43 Monmouth-NJ.............. 4.5%.. 0.9%.. 0.2%.. 0.0%

[cbline]

If SDSU would be at -7 with the additional 3 points for being at home, UNI looks to be a tempting bet for me. I don't have that much faith in the Jacks.

[bisonaudit]

If SDSU would be at -7 with the additional 3 points for being at home, UNI looks to be a tempting bet for me. I don't have that much faith in the Jacks.

Maybe comes down to which side you think is less damaged by late season injuries unaccounted for in these numbers.

[TransAmBison]

Maybe comes down to which side you think is less damaged by late season injuries unaccounted for in these numbers.

UNI did not look good against San Diego. If they had been playing SDSU the game would have been over quickly...even with SDSU as banged up as they are.

[heffray]

UNI did not look good against San Diego. If they had been playing SDSU the game would have been over quickly...even with SDSU as banged up as they are.

And they're getting healthier daily. I hear Strong will be back next week. Unsure about their other injuries. If a Gibbs-less SDSU can hang with NDSU, I'd be willing to bet they can mop the floor (again) with UNI and hang with JMWho.

[TransAmBison]

And they're getting healthier daily. I hear Strong will be back next week. Unsure about their other injuries. If a Gibbs-less SDSU can hang with NDSU, I'd be willing to bet they can mop the floor (again) with UNI and hang with JMWho.

No, on JMU. SDSU does not play well so far from home. Couple that with a qb that can't really throw...JMU will destroy SDSU. This one will get ugly.

[heffray]

No, on JMU. SDSU does not play well so far from home. Couple that with a qb that can't really throw...JMU will destroy SDSU. This one will get ugly.

I can see that happening (it’s happened before—*cough* 10 turnovers *ahem*)... I’m only saying that I think they have the best chance out of anyone on that side of the bracket to beat the Douches (which, I guess, might not be saying a whole lot)...