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Thread: 2019 Sagarin Says

  1. #151
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by reformedUNDfan View Post
    Won by 25 on the road last year and I expect something similar this year.
    Even when we're supposed to, we don't...….. so don't jinx us.

  2. #152
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    NDSU regular season record:
    12-0 55.8% +14.7%
    11-1 36.9%... -4.7%
    10-2. 6.8%... -7.9%
    9-3... 0.5%... -1.9%
    8-4... 0.02%.. -0.2%
    7-5... 0.0002%
    6-6... 0.000001%
    5-7... 0.0000000003%

    opponent chance spread
    v. UNI... 92.5% -19.5 +4.0% -3.0
    v. Mo St 99.8% -39.0 +0.1% -2.0
    @ SDSU 70.4%. -7.0. +3.5% -1.0
    @ YSU.. 91.2% -18.5 +5.7% -4.0
    v. W Ill. 99.9%. -43.0 +0.3% -6.5
    v. USD.. 97.7% -27.0 +0.4% -0.5
    v. S Ill.. 96.5% -24.5 +1.8% -2.5

    Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.

    Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
    Mo Valley: 3 (NDSU 1, SDSU 2, UNI 5) -1 from last week (YSU 7)
    Big Sky: 2 (Montana 4, Weber 6) -1 from last week (EWU 8)
    Colonial: 2 (JMU 3, Villanova 8) +1 from last week (Villanova)
    Southern: 1 (Furman 7) +1 from last week

    Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
    Big Sky: 6 (Mt St, UCD, Sac St, EWU, UND), changes: UND in Id St out
    Mo Valley: 5 (YSU, Ill St, USD)
    Colonial: 2 (Towson)
    Southland: 1 (SHSU) Nicholls, changes: Nicholls in C Ark out

    Last 4 in:
    Mo Valley (Ill St)
    Southland (SHSU)
    Mo Valley (USD)
    Big Sky (UND)

    First 4 out:
    Colonial (Delaware)
    Colonial (Stony Brook)
    Southern (Wofford)
    Big Sky (Id St)
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  3. #153
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Top 25 per Sagarin; NDSU made a move back toward toward the top 30 of all college football. Mo Valley looking good!


    33 North Dakota State AA = 77.38 5 0 49.27( 166) 0 0 | 0 0 | 76.40 35 | 77.95 32 | 77.13 36 MISSOURI VALLEY
    76 South Dakota State AA = 67.55 4 1 40.06( 219) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.05 80 | 67.96 73 | 66.42 80 MISSOURI VALLEY

    82 James Madison AA = 66.12 5 1 45.28( 186) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.87 85 | 66.05 82 | 66.98 77 COLONIAL
    84 Montana AA = 65.65 5 1 51.29( 156) 0 1 | 0 1 | 66.08 84 | 64.68 85 | 69.84 65 BIG SKY
    98 Northern Iowa AA = 60.45 3 2 54.98( 138) 0 0 | 0 1 | 59.90 101 | 60.85 97 | 59.49 106 MISSOURI VALLEY
    107 Weber State AA = 58.73 3 2 56.57( 124) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.15 110 | 58.67 110 | 60.81 97 BIG SKY
    109 Furman AA = 58.45 4 2 45.81( 180) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.31 103 | 57.49 117 | 60.58 98 SOUTHERN
    113 Princeton AA = 58.22 3 0 27.49( 254) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.92 112 | 58.27 113 | 58.49 109 IVY LEAGUE
    115 Villanova AA = 57.69 6 0 41.07( 213) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.12 123 | 57.94 115 | 61.68 93 COLONIAL
    122 Youngstown State AA = 56.43 4 1 39.29( 224) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.25 121 | 56.45 122 | 56.50 125 MISSOURI VALLEY
    123 Dartmouth AA = 56.33 3 0 33.12( 249) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.73 125 | 56.44 123 | 57.41 118 IVY LEAGUE
    126 Towson AA = 55.74 3 2 50.52( 158) 0 0 | 0 1 | 54.88 129 | 56.16 125 | 55.86 127 COLONIAL
    127 Montana State AA = 55.49 5 1 45.15( 189) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.18 135 | 56.35 124 | 58.46 110 BIG SKY
    128 UC Davis AA = 55.40 2 4 59.19( 114) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.00 118 | 54.67 130 | 53.20 133 BIG SKY
    129 Kennesaw State AA = 55.36 4 1 44.28( 198) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.37 120 | 54.47 131 | 56.40 126 BIG SOUTH
    130 Nicholls State AA = 55.26 3 2 51.98( 149) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.42 131 | 55.42 128 | 56.90 121 SOUTHLAND
    132 Sacramento State AA = 54.70 3 2 61.20( 100) 0 0 | 0 1 | 58.27 109 | 51.61 143 | 59.61 104 BIG SKY
    134 Eastern Washington AA = 53.71 2 4 55.59( 136) 0 0 | 0 1 | 54.50 130 | 53.56 135 | 51.00 145 BIG SKY
    135 Illinois State AA = 53.66 3 2 45.38( 184) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.11 144 | 55.33 129 | 52.36 137 MISSOURI VALLEY
    137 Sam Houston State AA = 53.16 4 2 46.69( 176) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.93 132 | 52.40 140 | 54.28 130 SOUTHLAND
    138 South Dakota AA = 52.82 2 3 49.79( 162) 0 1 | 0 1 | 52.68 137 | 52.85 138 | 52.60 135 MISSOURI VALLEY
    140 Central Arkansas AA = 52.04 3 2 55.71( 134) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.47 147 | 52.94 137 | 51.92 141 SOUTHLAND
    142 Yale AA = 51.95 3 0 35.23( 243) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.26 149 | 52.70 139 | 53.15 134 IVY LEAGUE
    144 North Dakota AA = 51.72 3 2 53.52( 141) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.27 140 | 51.25 145 | 51.92 140 BIG SKY
    145 Delaware AA = 51.52 3 2 49.42( 165) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.92 151 | 52.34 141 | 51.89 142 COLONIAL

  4. #154
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by bisonaudit View Post
    NDSU regular season record:
    12-0 55.8% +14.7%
    11-1 36.9%... -4.7%
    10-2. 6.8%... -7.9%
    9-3... 0.5%... -1.9%
    8-4... 0.02%.. -0.2%
    7-5... 0.0002%
    6-6... 0.000001%
    5-7... 0.0000000003%

    opponent chance spread
    v. UNI... 92.5% -19.5 +4.0% -3.0
    v. Mo St 99.8% -39.0 +0.1% -2.0
    @ SDSU 70.4%. -7.0. +3.5% -1.0
    @ YSU.. 91.2% -18.5 +5.7% -4.0
    v. W Ill. 99.9%. -43.0 +0.3% -6.5
    v. USD.. 97.7% -27.0 +0.4% -0.5
    v. S Ill.. 96.5% -24.5 +1.8% -2.5

    Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.

    Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
    Mo Valley: 3 (NDSU 1, SDSU 2, UNI 5) -1 from last week (YSU 7)
    Big Sky: 2 (Montana 4, Weber 6) -1 from last week (EWU 8)
    Colonial: 2 (JMU 3, Villanova 8) +1 from last week (Villanova)
    Southern: 1 (Furman 7) +1 from last week

    Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
    Big Sky: 6 (Mt St, UCD, Sac St, EWU, UND), changes: UND in Id St out
    Mo Valley: 5 (YSU, Ill St, USD)
    Colonial: 2 (Towson)
    Southland: 1 (SHSU) Nicholls, changes: Nicholls in C Ark out

    Last 4 in:
    Mo Valley (Ill St)
    Southland (SHSU)
    Mo Valley (USD)
    Big Sky (UND)

    First 4 out:
    Colonial (Delaware)
    Colonial (Stony Brook)
    Southern (Wofford)
    Big Sky (Id St)
    UND is an Independent and I think it will be tough for them to get in unless they run the table. I believe they have Montana in El Forko yet. Do not see them making the playoffs.
    "Sometimes a concept is baffling not because it is profound but because it is wrong" E. O. Wilson

    "I'm not crazy my mother had me tested". Sheldon Cooper

    My boss hates it when I shorten his name to Dick, mainly because his name is Steven.

  5. #155
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Mr Meaty View Post
    UND is an Independent and I think it will be tough for them to get in unless they run the table. I believe they have Montana in El Forko yet. Do not see them making the playoffs.
    Just reporting the results.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  6. #156
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by THEsocalledfan View Post
    Top 25 per Sagarin; NDSU made a move back toward toward the top 30 of all college football. Mo Valley looking good!


    33 North Dakota State AA = 77.38 5 0 49.27( 166) 0 0 | 0 0 | 76.40 35 | 77.95 32 | 77.13 36 MISSOURI VALLEY
    76 South Dakota State AA = 67.55 4 1 40.06( 219) 0 0 | 0 0 | 67.05 80 | 67.96 73 | 66.42 80 MISSOURI VALLEY

    82 James Madison AA = 66.12 5 1 45.28( 186) 0 0 | 0 0 | 65.87 85 | 66.05 82 | 66.98 77 COLONIAL
    84 Montana AA = 65.65 5 1 51.29( 156) 0 1 | 0 1 | 66.08 84 | 64.68 85 | 69.84 65 BIG SKY
    98 Northern Iowa AA = 60.45 3 2 54.98( 138) 0 0 | 0 1 | 59.90 101 | 60.85 97 | 59.49 106 MISSOURI VALLEY
    107 Weber State AA = 58.73 3 2 56.57( 124) 0 0 | 0 0 | 58.15 110 | 58.67 110 | 60.81 97 BIG SKY
    109 Furman AA = 58.45 4 2 45.81( 180) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.31 103 | 57.49 117 | 60.58 98 SOUTHERN
    113 Princeton AA = 58.22 3 0 27.49( 254) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.92 112 | 58.27 113 | 58.49 109 IVY LEAGUE
    115 Villanova AA = 57.69 6 0 41.07( 213) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.12 123 | 57.94 115 | 61.68 93 COLONIAL
    122 Youngstown State AA = 56.43 4 1 39.29( 224) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.25 121 | 56.45 122 | 56.50 125 MISSOURI VALLEY
    123 Dartmouth AA = 56.33 3 0 33.12( 249) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.73 125 | 56.44 123 | 57.41 118 IVY LEAGUE
    126 Towson AA = 55.74 3 2 50.52( 158) 0 0 | 0 1 | 54.88 129 | 56.16 125 | 55.86 127 COLONIAL
    127 Montana State AA = 55.49 5 1 45.15( 189) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.18 135 | 56.35 124 | 58.46 110 BIG SKY
    128 UC Davis AA = 55.40 2 4 59.19( 114) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.00 118 | 54.67 130 | 53.20 133 BIG SKY
    129 Kennesaw State AA = 55.36 4 1 44.28( 198) 0 0 | 0 0 | 56.37 120 | 54.47 131 | 56.40 126 BIG SOUTH
    130 Nicholls State AA = 55.26 3 2 51.98( 149) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.42 131 | 55.42 128 | 56.90 121 SOUTHLAND
    132 Sacramento State AA = 54.70 3 2 61.20( 100) 0 0 | 0 1 | 58.27 109 | 51.61 143 | 59.61 104 BIG SKY
    134 Eastern Washington AA = 53.71 2 4 55.59( 136) 0 0 | 0 1 | 54.50 130 | 53.56 135 | 51.00 145 BIG SKY
    135 Illinois State AA = 53.66 3 2 45.38( 184) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.11 144 | 55.33 129 | 52.36 137 MISSOURI VALLEY
    137 Sam Houston State AA = 53.16 4 2 46.69( 176) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.93 132 | 52.40 140 | 54.28 130 SOUTHLAND
    138 South Dakota AA = 52.82 2 3 49.79( 162) 0 1 | 0 1 | 52.68 137 | 52.85 138 | 52.60 135 MISSOURI VALLEY
    140 Central Arkansas AA = 52.04 3 2 55.71( 134) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.47 147 | 52.94 137 | 51.92 141 SOUTHLAND
    142 Yale AA = 51.95 3 0 35.23( 243) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.26 149 | 52.70 139 | 53.15 134 IVY LEAGUE
    144 North Dakota AA = 51.72 3 2 53.52( 141) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.27 140 | 51.25 145 | 51.92 140 BIG SKY
    145 Delaware AA = 51.52 3 2 49.42( 165) 0 0 | 0 0 | 49.92 151 | 52.34 141 | 51.89 142 COLONIAL


    Guys- The CAA is literally the greatest conference in football history.

    They have FOUR teams in the top 25. Honestly, CAA>Either the NFC or the AFC. Not even close in my estimation

    -Brian McLaughlin
    1. The FCS was the Best option for NDSU for a very long time.
    2. As a general rule- the FCS sucks at football and has proven that is not committed to football at all.
    3. It's time to go FBS

  7. #157
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    #ColonialSpeed
    #ColonialPower
    #ColonialQualityLosses
    #ColonialWonTheGameInTheTrenches
    #JustMailTheFuckinTrophyToJMUAlready
    1. The FCS was the Best option for NDSU for a very long time.
    2. As a general rule- the FCS sucks at football and has proven that is not committed to football at all.
    3. It's time to go FBS

  8. #158
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Can someone explain why SDSU not getting more love in the polls? To me, they should be #2 at this point. I also think Montana should be #3 in the polls.....

  9. #159
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    Mr Pep Band is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Second Stanza for The Yellow and The Green-

    Here in autumn throng the nations,
    Just to gather in the spoil,
    Throng on freight-cars from the cities,
    Some to feast and some to toil,
    Then the yellow grain flows eastward
    And the yellow gold flows back;
    Barren cities boast their plenty
    And the prairies know no lack.
    Seems they need to pump up JMU to compensate form something. NDSU doesn't need to, we know we're good.

    JMU- "We're great, we play great teams, we won a Natty two years ago.......etc etc etc"

    NDSU- stands in front of our 15 national championship trophies whilst a mic lays on the ground. Didn't do a mic drop, never even picked it up!

  10. #160
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by MankatoBison View Post
    Guys- The CAA is literally the greatest conference in football history.

    They have FOUR teams in the top 25. Honestly, CAA>Either the NFC or the AFC. Not even close in my estimation

    -Brian McLaughlin
    B-Mac gives JMU the nod because of how they lost to an FBS team... Based on that logic, NDSU should get the nod this week based on how JMU barely beat a middling conference foe.
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