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Thread: 2019 Sagarin Says

  1. #381
    VirginiaBison is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    So which is more important in the full scheme of things.... Sagarin ratings or getting the 2s,3s & 4s game experience?
    You wanta play football, any school will do; ... You wanta learn football, NDSU is for you!

  2. #382
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by VirginiaBison View Post
    So which is more important in the full scheme of things.... Sagarin ratings or getting the 2s,3s & 4s game experience?
    The latter. No question.
    Don't believe everything you think.

  3. #383
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    NDSU regular season record:
    12-0 90.2% -3.5%
    11-1. 9.6% +3.3%
    10-2. 0.2% +0.1%

    opponent chance spread
    v. USD 98.0% -28.0 -31.5 -0.9% +3.5
    @ S Ill 92.0% -19.0 -22.0 -2.8% +3.0

    Summary of Methodology: Calculating the win percentages assumes that game results are normally distributed around the Sagarin spread with a standard deviation of approximately 14 points. The Sagarin spread is simply the difference between the teams Sagarin rating +/- Sagarin's home field factor. Additionally, I make a further adjustment that is approximately the same size as the home field factor for teams coming off a bye week.

    Sagarin's take on seeds by conference:
    Mo Valley: 4 (NDSU 1, SDSU 5, UNI 7, Ill St 8) +1 from last week (SDSU 3, UNI 6, Ill St)
    Big Sky: 3 (Mont 3, Weber 4, Sac St 6) -1 from last week (Mont 5, Sac St 7, EWU 8)
    Colonial: 1 (JMU 2) no change from last week

    Sagarin's take on AT LARGE playoff spots by conference [(at large teams not listed above) autobid not listed above]:
    Big Sky: 5 (EWU, Mt St, UCD)
    Mo Valley: 4 (S Ill) changes: YSU out
    Colonial: 3 (Villanova, Towson, Maine), changes: UNH out, Maine in
    Southern: 1 (Wofford) Furman
    Southland: 1 (SHSU) SE La, changes: SHSU in

    Last 4 in:
    Mo Valley (S Ill)
    Colonial (Maine)
    Southern (Wofford)
    Southland (SHSU)

    First 4 out:
    Mo Valley (USD)
    Ohio V (Austin P)
    Big Sky (UND)
    Colonial (UNH)

    FYI: just assuming at this point that the team with the top rating in each conference will win the autobid.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  4. #384
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Current FCS top 25 per Sagarin. Shocked to see USD in the top 25:

    39 North Dakota State AA = 75.64 10 0 47.36( 158) 0 0 | 0 0 | 73.84 49 | 76.39 37 | 76.37 38 MISSOURI VALLEY
    67 James Madison AA = 69.55 9 1 47.38( 157) 0 0 | 0 0 | 69.20 71 | 68.37 71 | 70.69 57 COLONIAL
    87 Montana AA = 64.22 8 2 51.06( 141) 0 1 | 0 1 | 64.25 85 | 62.56 97 | 65.46 81 BIG SKY
    90 Weber State AA = 63.84 8 2 53.09( 136) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.56 109 | 62.49 98 | 69.67 63 BIG SKY
    96 South Dakota State AA = 62.43 7 3 46.98( 162) 0 0 | 0 1 | 63.91 88 | 63.62 94 | 59.42 109 MISSOURI VALLEY
    101 Dartmouth AA = 61.86 8 0 38.72( 208) 0 0 | 0 0 | 59.93 108 | 60.73 103 | 64.57 86 IVY LEAGUE
    105 Sacramento State AA = 60.95 7 3 56.87( 124) 0 0 | 0 0 | 61.08 101 | 57.78 118 | 63.69 90 BIG SKY
    108 Northern Iowa AA = 60.22 7 3 50.64( 143) 0 0 | 0 1 | 57.27 118 | 60.57 106 | 62.45 98 MISSOURI VALLEY
    120 Illinois State AA = 57.08 7 3 49.22( 152) 0 0 | 0 0 | 54.14 130 | 57.97 117 | 58.72 111 MISSOURI VALLEY

    121 Eastern Washington AA = 56.92 5 5 51.28( 140) 0 0 | 0 1 | 58.77 110 | 56.10 121 | 55.47 122 BIG SKY
    123 Montana State AA = 55.55 7 3 45.42( 172) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.54 126 | 54.88 125 | 55.80 120 BIG SKY
    125 Furman AA = 55.09 7 3 40.66( 199) 0 0 | 0 0 | 57.62 116 | 54.10 131 | 53.13 138 SOUTHERN
    126 UC Davis AA = 54.94 5 5 53.19( 135) 0 0 | 0 0 | 55.13 127 | 54.44 127 | 54.79 125 BIG SKY
    129 Towson AA = 54.70 6 4 48.47( 154) 0 0 | 0 1 | 55.89 123 | 54.41 128 | 53.34 136 COLONIAL
    130 Princeton AA = 54.50 7 1 34.55( 233) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.82 132 | 54.99 124 | 54.25 130 IVY LEAGUE
    131 Villanova AA = 54.26 7 3 46.03( 169) 0 0 | 0 0 | 53.84 131 | 53.69 132 | 54.79 126 COLONIAL
    132 Southern Illinois AA = 54.12 6 4 49.26( 150) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.80 134 | 52.26 135 | 56.84 117 MISSOURI VALLEY
    135 SE Louisiana AA = 53.58 6 3 41.84( 193) 0 0 | 0 0 | 52.77 135 | 50.54 140 | 56.98 116 SOUTHLAND
    136 Maine AA = 52.62 5 5 49.44( 147) 0 0 | 0 0 | 51.46 138 | 51.00 139 | 54.93 124 COLONIAL
    137 Wofford AA = 52.30 6 3 37.96( 212) 0 1 | 0 1 | 54.56 129 | 51.10 137 | 50.76 146 SOUTHERN
    141 Yale AA = 51.08 7 1 37.82( 213) 0 0 | 0 0 | 48.66 147 | 51.19 136 | 52.91 139 IVY LEAGUE
    142 SE Missouri State AA = 50.31 7 3 47.70( 156) 0 0 | 0 0 | 46.70 160 | 50.27 142 | 53.38 135 OHIO VALLEY
    143 South Dakota AA = 49.98 4 6 46.93( 163) 0 1 | 0 1 | 51.27 139 | 50.01 144 | 48.17 157 MISSOURI VALLEY
    144 Austin Peay AA = 49.96 7 3 40.38( 203) 0 0 | 0 0 | 47.71 156 | 47.41 157 | 54.16 132 OHIO VALLEY
    145 North Dakota AA = 49.92 5 4 52.51( 139) 0 0 | 0 0 | 50.40 142 | 48.90 150 | 50.03 147 BIG SKY

  5. #385
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Couple things of note putting together top 25.....

    JMU is now within spitting distance of NDSU. Appear to be the main worry at this point.

    SDSU probably still overvalued as the model has limited data with the Gibbs injury.

    Beware of the Griz.....that will be a dangerous team for any and all that need to head to Missoula.

  6. #386
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by El_Chapo View Post
    in this division i have been saying undefeated seasons every year since 2010 at 121-8 and i wasnt that far off.

    our talent & stockpiling of talent/depth is just too much for fcs.

    Ill remind you of my story golfing with a southern illinois coach this summer. "f*** NDSU! they are so deep , they just keep rotating D Lineman, we had no chance with our Oline, we tired out about mid 3rd quarter"
    Quote Originally Posted by TransAmBison View Post
    So what you are saying is you are wrong more often than you are right? Sounds like married life to me.
    Quote Originally Posted by 1st&TennBison View Post
    You were right twice in nine seasons, so how do you figure "not that far off".
    Yeah Lakes, you were only right 94% of the time, you F*cking MORON. Cant believe you were so wrong. we're losing 6% of our games over a DECADE. this competition is off the charts, literally not possible to have more impressive competition. And to reiterate, you were wrong 6% of the time- you IDIOT. How could you say such a f*cking ridiculous thing like "statistically, it is likely we go undefeated every year in the last decade, because we are literally favored in every single game except for, like, 3 in the last decade". Moron.
    1. The FCS was the Best option for NDSU for a very long time.
    2. As a general rule- the FCS sucks at football and has proven that is not committed to football at all.
    3. It's time to go FBS

  7. #387
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by MankatoBison View Post
    Yeah Lakes, you were only right 94% of the time, you F*cking MORON. Cant believe you were so wrong. we're losing 6% of our games over a DECADE. this competition is off the charts, literally not possible to have more impressive competition. And to reiterate, you were wrong 6% of the time- you IDIOT. How could you say such a f*cking ridiculous thing like "statistically, it is likely we go undefeated every year in the last decade, because we are literally favored in every single game except for, like, 3 in the last decade". Moron.
    Ummm...he was right 22% of the time.

    Notorious--Bisonville all-time POTY
    Proud member of TOHBTC[/B]

  8. #388
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by TransAmBison View Post
    Ummm...he was right 22% of the time.
    Is that still "F*cking MORON" territory our just regular moron?
    Last edited by Vet70; 11-11-2019 at 03:12 PM.
    The only reason some people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.
    Paul Fix
    .

  9. #389
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Vet70 View Post
    Is that still "F*ucking MORON" territory our just regular moron?
    Not sure...I'm not big on calling people names...would rather have a discussion than getting into ridiculing each other personally. Unless we are talking about Loaf. Then the gloves are off.

    Notorious--Bisonville all-time POTY
    Proud member of TOHBTC[/B]

  10. #390
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    Default Re: 2019 Sagarin Says

    well I was born in Mankato. so maybe we are brothers LOL and i'm pretty sure he was being facetious towards 1st and Tenn.
    NDSU TO FBS. HAVEN'T WE WON ENOUGH?

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