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Thread: Bracketology

  1. #41
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    Default Re: Bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by ndsubison1 View Post
    Going to attempt to break it down for the 16s. Typically the SWAC/MEAC/MAAC are 16s. Cant always look at record. Penn from IVY was a 16 last year with 8 losses.

    Summit: NDSU 18-15.
    OOC L: NMSU, UCSB, Gonzaga, Iowa St,
    OOC W: No quality wins

    Big South: Gardner- Webb 23-11
    OOC L: VCU, VA Tech, Furman,
    OOC W: GA Tech, Wake Forest

    MAAC: Iona 17-15
    OOC L: Providence, VCU, New Mexico, Yale
    OOC W: No quality

    NEC: Farleigh Dickinson 20-13
    OOC L: Rutgers, Providence, S. Florida
    OOC W: No quality

    America East: Hope Binghamton or Hartford win.
    Big West: Hope a lower seed wins
    Ivy: Maybe Penn? has 11 losses.
    MEAC: We will likely be ahead of any champion.
    Patriot: Colgate. Likely ahead of us.
    Southland: Hope for a lower seed. Need SHSU to lose.
    SWAC: We will likely be ahead of any champion.
    WAC: Hope a lower seed wins.

    16: MEAC
    SWAC
    FDU
    NDSU

    Iona
    Gardner Webb

    Bold are locked into play-in. We may only need one more big upset,
    Politics can come into play also when they decide whether both the MEAC and SWAC (the two HBCUs) will be relegated to Dayton. Last year they did it (they actually played each other) but it seems like most years either the MEAC or SWAC champ snags a 16 seed with a bye when by almost every metric they're worse than one or more of the 16s playing in Dayton.

    I also think Iona would be in Dayton before NDSU. They're ranked 20 spots below NDSU in the RPI, overall SOS is 50 spots worse, and non-conference SOS is over 100 spots worse. Iona also has a whopping 8 quadrant 4 losses (NDSU has 4).

    NDSU's profile: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...h-Dakota-State
    Iona's profile: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/schedule/Iona

  2. #42
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    Default Re: Bracketology

    I would prefer a 15 but if we are going to be a 16, a play in game vs Iona on national TV would be fun. Plus, the NCAA counts those wins as tournament wins which gives the Summit another annual share. Our last win's credits vs OU are about to expire.

  3. #43
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    Default Re: Bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by AKBison View Post
    I would prefer a 15 but if we are going to be a 16, a play in game vs Iona on national TV would be fun. Plus, the NCAA counts those wins as tournament wins which gives the Summit another annual share. Our last win's credits vs OU are about to expire.
    Speaking of, how does the Summit League utilize the extra shares from a tournament win?

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

  4. #44
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    Default Re: Bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by ndsubison1 View Post
    Going to attempt to break it down for the 16s. Typically the SWAC/MEAC/MAAC are 16s. Cant always look at record. Penn from IVY was a 16 last year with 8 losses.

    Summit: NDSU 18-15.
    OOC L: NMSU, UCSB, Gonzaga, Iowa St,
    OOC W: No quality wins

    Big South: Gardner- Webb 23-11
    OOC L: VCU, VA Tech, Furman,
    OOC W: GA Tech, Wake Forest

    MAAC: Iona 17-15
    OOC L: Providence, VCU, New Mexico, Yale
    OOC W: No quality

    NEC: Farleigh Dickinson 20-13
    OOC L: Rutgers, Providence, S. Florida
    OOC W: No quality

    America East: Hope Binghamton or Hartford win.
    Big West: Hope a lower seed wins
    Ivy: Maybe Penn? has 11 losses.
    MEAC: We will likely be ahead of any champion.
    Patriot: Colgate. Likely ahead of us.
    Southland: Hope for a lower seed. Need SHSU to lose.
    SWAC: We will likely be ahead of any champion.
    WAC: Hope a lower seed wins.

    16: MEAC
    SWAC
    FDU
    NDSU

    Iona
    Gardner Webb

    Bold are locked into play-in. We may only need one more big upset,
    We beat UC Santa Barbara, who finished 22-9 and 2nd in their conference. I believe they're still alive in their conference tourney. Not sure if it's a quality win, but it's an OOC win.

    Also lost to UIW, which is worse than a bad loss. There should be a new category for 'WTF? Losses' for that one.
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  5. #45
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    Default Re: Bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Chaos View Post
    Politics can come into play also when they decide whether both the MEAC and SWAC (the two HBCUs) will be relegated to Dayton. Last year they did it (they actually played each other) but it seems like most years either the MEAC or SWAC champ snags a 16 seed with a bye when by almost every metric they're worse than one or more of the 16s playing in Dayton.

    I also think Iona would be in Dayton before NDSU. They're ranked 20 spots below NDSU in the RPI, overall SOS is 50 spots worse, and non-conference SOS is over 100 spots worse. Iona also has a whopping 8 quadrant 4 losses (NDSU has 4).

    NDSU's profile: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/20...h-Dakota-State
    Iona's profile: http://warrennolan.com/basketball/2019/schedule/Iona
    I didn’t think they were using the RPI anymore.
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  6. #46
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    Default Re: Bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by bisonaudit View Post
    I didn’t think they were using the RPI anymore.
    They use NET rankings which I think uses a similar formula to the traditional RPI but I do see that NDSU's NET rating is around 40 spots lower than their RPI. I'm not sure that NET on WarrenNolan.com is the same numbers as the NCAA uses because the NCAA, like they do with the SRS in the FCS Playoff Selection, constantly tweaks the formula.

  7. #47
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    Default Re: Bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Chaos View Post
    They use NET rankings which I think uses a similar formula to the traditional RPI but I do see that NDSU's NET rating is around 40 spots lower than their RPI. I'm not sure that NET on WarrenNolan.com is the same numbers as the NCAA uses because the NCAA, like they do with the SRS in the FCS Playoff Selection, constantly tweaks the formula.
    The NCAA has NET on their site and it is updated daily...

    https://www.ncaa.com/rankings/basket...l-net-rankings
    NDSU to the FBS always. In all ways.

  8. #48
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    Default Re: Bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by KSBisonFan View Post
    We beat UC Santa Barbara, who finished 22-9 and 2nd in their conference. I believe they're still alive in their conference tourney. Not sure if it's a quality win, but it's an OOC win.

    Also lost to UIW, which is worse than a bad loss. There should be a new category for 'WTF? Losses' for that one.
    Yeah, I didn't realize UCSB would turn out to be a good win, but they are clearly a good team, so the win is meaningful. Until Omaha the other night, it was our only win against a team that had a winning record in the end. But a lot of teams have been playing well at the end of the season, including teams we recently beat. There's no doubt that we're playing at a higher level now than during the OOC. I'd love to have another crack at some of those games. Maybe we'll get Gonzaga in a 1 vs. 16. Or maybe we'll run into NMSU again. I think a game with NMSU would be more competitive this time around.
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  9. #49
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    Default Re: Bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by TAILG8R View Post
    Speaking of, how does the Summit League utilize the extra shares from a tournament win?

    Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
    I can't say for sure but I assume it's equally distributed amongst it's members as well.

  10. #50
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    Default Re: Bracketology

    Quote Originally Posted by Professorbum View Post
    Yeah, I didn't realize UCSB would turn out to be a good win, but they are clearly a good team, so the win is meaningful. Until Omaha the other night, it was our only win against a team that had a winning record in the end. But a lot of teams have been playing well at the end of the season, including teams we recently beat. There's no doubt that we're playing at a higher level now than during the OOC. I'd love to have another crack at some of those games. Maybe we'll get Gonzaga in a 1 vs. 16. Or maybe we'll run into NMSU again. I think a game with NMSU would be more competitive this time around.
    No chance we play Nmsu

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