MSU Post Game Thoughts

[thebootfitter]

...let me rephrase that....Troy is amazing at running the ball from the quarterback position. NDSU knew what was coming, and he still managed to rush for 129 yards. However, he's not really consistent at passing the ball. In our games against NDSU, Weber and EWU....they just loaded the box to stop the run, and our offense stalled. I just don' think the Cats can jump to the next level without a better passing game, as they were too one dimensional this year.

-Well....UND is jumping into the Valley in 2 years (?). That alone could shift things to the Big Sky There is Sagarin...but they have UNI above UC Davis and Montana, who both beat them.....so I think Sagarin has some flaws, especially at the FCS level. I guess we'll have to wait and see.

Sagarin doesn't have "flaws." It is exactly what it is supposed to be. It is simply a calculation to predict future outcomes based on past results. Sometimes the real results on the field go a different way, but that doesn't mean that Sagarin is "wrong." In any predictive model, the outcomes are predictive within certain levels of probability. Even when there's a 1% chance that a team wins, there's still a chance (a-la Dumb and Dumber).

Both of those games you mentioned were within a score. UNI has a rating of 62.7 and UC Davis is 61.7. That's pretty much identical. When you consider home field advantage, Sagarin actually was correct on predicting the UNI vs UC Davis game. Montana's rating is 52.7. Add in home field advantage, and Sagarin only predicts UNI would beat Montana by a touchdown. If you remember much about stats, that's only 0.5 standard deviations from the expected outcome, which means Sagarin predicted (in hindsight) a close game. It was pretty close in reality.

Regarding UND from Big Sky to MVFC... yeah... you could have a solid point there. Ha!

[tony]

Unless my math is off, this game ties our largest margin of victory in a playoff game. The average margin of victory in the playoffs (calculating losses as negative margin of victory) is 21 points.

Yeah, I ran the numbers this morning. If you take out conference teams, the average score of an NDSU playoff game is 37-12. Against conference teams, it's 29-15.

[LITTLEGUYSINGREEN]

Number one, I'd have to say Coach Choate....he's upped the recruiting game and is more focused on player development. Number 2, they'll have a better QB next year. Troy Andersen is a great player....but he's not a good QB, and with any luck will be moving back to linebacker next season. That makes the defense better....plus 2 of our best linebackers missed most of the season with injuries. Anyway, they will get a lot of depth back on defense with guys simply healing up (we were pretty dinged up in the secondary as well). Big Sky Conference is also getting better, and though you guys refer to it as the big fluffy....I don't think they are as far behind the Valley as you guys think (and will actually pass you up as a conference in the next year or two). Also, renewed push for facilities. Finally, how many teams do you think are "in the mix" for Frisco this year? I have 4....NDSU, SDSU, EWU and Weber State (though I give Kennesaw State honorable mention as I believe they are underrated). Not sure what SDSU loses other than qb.....but you guys are losing 16 starters an likely your coach, and Montana State is catching up with EWU and Weber. Regardless of whether you guys continue on your run or start to slide back to the pack......I would expect MSU to be mentioned as a possible title contender over the next few years.

I think you forgot to use purple. LOL. Under what matrix did you arrive at at this conclusion? This kind of comment is very typical of what I have read on BN. I'm not sure if it is delusion or utter ignorance. But like I said in an earlier post, most BN fans are very ignorant of life outside of the Big Sky and have an overinflated idea of the level of play in that conference. The minute a Bison fan points that out, you guys start crying about us being arrogant.

Sorry kitty, it is not arrogance, it is fact. For the better part of a decade, in the FCS, it has been us and "insert team here" as contenders for the title, some years just us. This year it is us.....possibly SDSU. As far as us dropping off after this year, that you and the rest of the FCS have been waiting for with giddy anticipation, don't hold your breath. After the 2013 season (a season in which we went undefeated with a team that is arguably one of the greatest in NDSU history) we lost 23 seniors, most of which were starters, (including our QB and many all-Conference and multiple all-Americans) and our head coach. Did we drop off? Well, by our standards we did, but we were still good enough to win the national title once again.

So you see kitty, NDSU is not going anywhere fast. In stead of waiting for us to drop off, maybe MSU should try to catch up.

I'll get off my soap box. Cue the predictable state smack and claims of arrogance from kitty fans.................

[BadlandsBison]

I noticed one of their DTs (#90) is from Aledo, Texas whose football team was the subject of a great high school football documentary call Titletown, Tx.

https://www.star-telegram.com/sports...196011419.html

James Williams was one of the stars of Season 1. He desperately wants a division 1 scholarship but is afraid he won't get one because he is too short. Obviously Montana State ended up recruiting him.

[minnesotabobcat]

I think you forgot to use purple. LOL. Under what matrix did you arrive at at this conclusion? This kind of comment is very typical of what I have read on BN. I'm not sure if it is delusion or utter ignorance. But like I said in an earlier post, most BN fans are very ignorant of life outside of the Big Sky and have an overinflated idea of the level of play in that conference. The minute a Bison fan points that out, you guys start crying about us being arrogant.

Sorry kitty, it is not arrogance, it is fact. For the better part of a decade, in the FCS, it has been us and "insert team here" as contenders for the title, some years just us. This year it is us.....possibly SDSU. As far as us dropping off after this year, that you and the rest of the FCS have been waiting for with giddy anticipation, don't hold your breath. After the 2013 season (a season in which we went undefeated with a team that is arguably one of the greatest in NDSU history) we lost 23 seniors, most of which were starters, (including our QB and many all-Conference and multiple all-Americans) and our head coach. Did we drop off? Well, by our standards we did, but we were still good enough to win the national title once again.

So you see kitty, NDSU is not going anywhere fast. In stead of waiting for us to drop off, maybe MSU should try to catch up.

I'll get off my soap box. Cue the predictable state smack and claims of arrogance from kitty fans.................

The third playoff team from the MVC lost to both UC Davis and Montana. Montana State beat Western Illinois, who was probably considered the 4th or 5th best team in your conference. If you take NDSU and SDSU out of the MVFC....that's a very mediocre conference. NDSU may vey well be the best team in the country this year, but EWU, Weber can play with them.....and are equal to SDSU. UC Davis is a step below that, and MSU/Montana area step below that...but a step above anything else in the MVFC. Oh...I wouldn't say you are arrogant....I'd say ignorant.

[minnesotabobcat]

I noticed one of their DTs (#90) is from Aledo, Texas whose football team was the subject of a great high school football documentary call Titletown, Tx.

https://www.star-telegram.com/sports...196011419.html

James Williams was one of the stars of Season 1. He desperately wants a division 1 scholarship but is afraid he won't get one because he is too short. Obviously Montana State ended up recruiting him.

Williams held out for that FBS scholarship til' the very end...but ended up re-committing to MSU at the last minute, and was the cherry on top of last year's recruiting class. He was injured for parts of the season, but when he was in he made an impact. He hurt himself at the goal line in the NDSU game, and it didn't look good, but they cut away for commercial and I haven't heard how serious the injury was.

[RedRiver]

The third playoff team from the MVC lost to both UC Davis and Montana. Montana State beat Western Illinois, who was probably considered the 4th or 5th best team in your conference. If you take NDSU and SDSU out of the MVFC....that's a very mediocre conference. NDSU may vey well be the best team in the country this year, but EWU, Weber can play with them.....and are equal to SDSU. UC Davis is a step below that, and MSU/Montana area step below that...but a step above anything else in the MVFC. Oh...I wouldn't say you are arrogant....I'd say ignorant.

Regular season head to head: MVFC 5 - Big Sky 3.

[minnesotabobcat]

Regular season head to head: MVFC 5 - Big Sky 3.

Yes, you had wins against Poly (NDSU), MSU (SDSU), NAU (MS), Montana (WI), Northern Colorado (SD)...and the Weber beat SD, MSU beat Western Illinois and Montana beat Northern Iowa. The big sky played arguably the 4 best teams in the Valley, but he Valley missed the best team in the Big Sky (EWU), and the third best team (UC Davis) and arguably 4th or 5th best team (Idaho State). Outside of NDSU/SDSU....who in the Valley can consistently hang with EWU....or UC Davis for that that matter. Yes, the conferences are hard to compare because the Big Sky is so big....but like I said earlier, you take the top 2 teams out of both conferences and the Valley was mediocre at best this year....and UD Davis/MSU/Montana/Idaho State > UNI/Western Illinois/Indiana State/Illinois State.

[bisonaudit]

Williams held out for that FBS scholarship til' the very end...but ended up re-committing to MSU at the last minute, and was the cherry on top of last year's recruiting class. He was injured for parts of the season, but when he was in he made an impact. He hurt himself at the goal line in the NDSU game, and it didn't look good, but they cut away for commercial and I haven't heard how serious the injury was.

I thought that was the guy. Our radio guys didn’t think it looked good either. Hope he’s OK.

With your incisive analysis of those teams I think you’re ready to join the selection committee.

[minnesotabobcat]

I thought that was the guy. Our radio guys didn’t think it looked good either. Hope he’s OK.

With your incisive analysis of those teams I think you’re ready to join the selection committee.

...It's the offseason.....so I have time for lot's of analysis Plus, for the record....I would have put Indiana State in over Incarnate Word.......