I don't care what the computer models say you're never going to get a 5 D1 win MVFC team into the field... much less multiple of them. Teams have to win not just play competitively with a tough schedule and teams like ISUr, WIU, and YSU didn't do that this year.
I don't necessarily buy that there's a massive sentiment out there that the CAA is better than the MVFC this year. I think most educated FCS followers would still put the MVFC on top and, at best for the CAA, have them level with the MVFC. The difference between the two this year was there were not any NDSU/SDSU types in the CAA hogging all the wins. It was more like a bunch of UNIs so they spread the wins out amongst each other. On top of that they have 2 more teams than the MVFC so they each miss 3 different teams on the conference schedule which allows for an even wider distribution of wins. For instance Maine, which won the CAA autobid as the only team to only have one conference loss, was the only team in the conference who missed 3 of the top 6 teams (they didn't play JMU, Delaware, or Stony Brook). Hmmm, I wonder how they got that autobid/seed? I hate unbalanced conference schedules and the MVFC is getting worse with everyone missing 2 teams on the conference schedule when UND joins. Indiana St benefited from not playing NDSU this year... what happens if UND was in the conference this year and they had missed both NDSU and SDSU? I don't think the committee takes the unbalanced schedules into account enough when they build the bracket.
The MVFC without NDSU is actually right on par with any other conference out there in the last 5 years (starting in 2014). Since then, even without NDSU, they've have 2 schools make the finals (Illinois St and YSU) which is more than the CAA (only JMU). They've had 3 schools make the semis (Illinois St, YSU, and SDSU) which is as many as the CAA (JMU, UNH, and Richmond). They've had 4 schools make the quarters (Illinois St, YSU, SDSU, and UNI) which is again as many as the CAA (JMU, UNH, Richmond, and Nova). They've had 7 schools win at least on playoff game in that span (Illinois St, YSU, SDSU, UNI, USD, WIU, Indiana St) while the CAA has only had 6 (JMU, UNH, Richmond, Nova, Stony Brook, William & Mary). That's all without NDSU. Of course you'd have to wonder if it wouldn't be for all the losses to NDSU how many more MVFC would've made the playoffs in that stretch? But add in the Bison and the MVFC blows away the CAA in terms of playoff success.