2018 Sagarin Says

[SDbison]

Montana state isn't even at 1% chance to beat NDSU. wow. they're that bad?

Big Fluffy?

[CoachFSCB]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team............... Rd2... Qtr... Semi... Final
80.90 (1) North Dakota State. 99.2% 90.3% 75.3% 65.2%
52.99 Montana State.............. 0.8%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%..0.0%

60.13 (8) Colgate................. 42.8%.. 2.2%.. 0.5%. 0.2%
67.48 James Madison............ 57.2%. 7.4%.. 2.8%.. 1.6%


72.00 (5) South Dakota State 99.6% 72.2% 18.4% 12.7%
40.48 Duquesne..................... 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

63.16 (4) Kennesaw State..... 84.3% 26.6%.. 3.0%.. 1.3%
54.45 Wofford...................... 15.7%.. 1.2%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%



69.16 (3) Eastern Washington 92.2% 70.3% 55.4% 14.5%
54.84 Nicholls State............... 7.8%.. 2.3%.. 0.9%.. 0.0%

60.69 (6) UC Davis............... 57.0% 14.4%.. 8.4%.. 0.9%
63.19 Northern Iowa............. 43.0% 13.0%.. 7.9%. 1.2%


51.41 (7) Maine................... 44.8% 13.0%.. 1.6%.. 0.1%
58.05 Jacksonville State........ 55.2% 25.6%.. 6.0%.. 0.5%

59.00 (2) Weber State........... 83.7% 56.3% 19.4%. 1.8%
50.62 SE Missouri State......... 16.3%.. 5.1%.. 0.5%.. 0.0%

For those of you who were told there would be no math, this post is not for you. Look away.

For what it’s worth, before yesterday’s playoff games, NDSU was given a 66.3% chance to win the National Championship in Frisco again. The team with the next-best chance to win the title was Eastern Washington (14%) and then South Dakota State (11.8 %), Weber State, Northern Iowa and James Madison (all 1.6%), Kennesaw State (1.4%) and UC-Davis (0.8%).

After yesterday’s playoff games, NDSU is now given a slightly lower 65.2% chance to win it all again. Next is Eastern Washington, whose title chances improved to 14.5%, then South Dakota State, whose chances have risen the most, up to 12.7%. Weber State is now up to 1.8%, James Madison remains at 1.6%, and Kennesaw State actually dropped to 1.3%. Northern Iowa moved past UC-Davis now with a 1.2% chance of winning it all with UC-Davis improving a tad to 0.9%.

Duquesne beating Towson in a monsoon yesterday was a real gift for the Jackrabbits. Their chance to win in Round Two went from being 94.9% all the way to 99.6%, and with a likely easier opponent next week in Duquesne rather than Towson, their chances of winning a third-round game – most likely against Kennesaw – improved almost 4%. The Jacks chances of getting to Frisco increased from 17.1% to 18.4%.

While James Madison stayed steady at 1.6% to win the Championship, their win yesterday did actually improve their chances against Colgate in Round Two. Prior to yesterday’s games, James Madison (52.5% chance to win) was a slight favorite to beat Colgate (45.6%). Now, their chances have improved to 57.2% while Colgate’s have fallen to 42.8%.

Probably due to their lackluster win, the UNI Panthers’ chances of getting to Frisco have decreased, although ironically, their chances of winning it IF they get there improved a bit yesterday. Prior to their win against Lamar, UNI’s probability of reaching the championship game was at 9.9%, and now they are at 7.9%. It appears as if SEMO taking out Stony Brook did a lot to improve Weber State’s chances to appear in the title game as they increased by a full two percent, from 17.4% to 19.4%.

A lot of numbers, I know, but if you are a Bison fan or a math dweeb this is really fun to look at. The Bison basically have two chances out of three to win another National Championship, Eastern Washington has about one chance in seven and SDSU has about one chance in eight. Nobody else is really even on the radar. As someone was once quoted as saying: Me like-y.

[MNLonghorn10]

For those of you who were told there would be no math, this post is not for you. Look away.

For what it’s worth, before yesterday’s playoff games, NDSU was given a 66.3% chance to win the National Championship in Frisco again. The team with the next-best chance to win the title was Eastern Washington (14%) and then South Dakota State (11.8 %), Weber State, Northern Iowa and James Madison (all 1.6%), Kennesaw State (1.4%) and UC-Davis (0.8%).

After yesterday’s playoff games, NDSU is now given a slightly lower 65.2% chance to win it all again. Next is Eastern Washington, whose title chances improved to 14.5%, then South Dakota State, whose chances have risen the most, up to 12.7%. Weber State is now up to 1.8%, James Madison remains at 1.6%, and Kennesaw State actually dropped to 1.3%. Northern Iowa moved past UC-Davis now with a 1.2% chance of winning it all with UC-Davis improving a tad to 0.9%.

Duquesne beating Towson in a monsoon yesterday was a real gift for the Jackrabbits. Their chance to win in Round Two went from being 94.9% all the way to 99.6%, and with a likely easier opponent next week in Duquesne rather than Towson, their chances of winning a third-round game – most likely against Kennesaw – improved almost 4%. The Jacks chances of getting to Frisco increased from 17.1% to 18.4%.

While James Madison stayed steady at 1.6% to win the Championship, their win yesterday did actually improve their chances against Colgate in Round Two. Prior to yesterday’s games, James Madison (52.5% chance to win) was a slight favorite to beat Colgate (45.6%). Now, their chances have improved to 57.2% while Colgate’s have fallen to 42.8%.

Probably due to their lackluster win, the UNI Panthers’ chances of getting to Frisco have decreased, although ironically, their chances of winning it IF they get there improved a bit yesterday. Prior to their win against Lamar, UNI’s probability of reaching the championship game was at 9.9%, and now they are at 7.9%. It appears as if SEMO taking out Stony Brook did a lot to improve Weber State’s chances to appear in the title game as they increased by a full two percent, from 17.4% to 19.4%.

A lot of numbers, I know, but if you are a Bison fan or a math dweeb this is really fun to look at. The Bison basically have two chances out of three to win another National Championship, Eastern Washington has about one chance in seven and SDSU has about one chance in eight. Nobody else is really even on the radar. As someone was once quoted as saying: Me like-y.

[TAILG8R]

This was a good read. Numbers/statistics are fun but I have to say my gut tells me that once NDSU gets past SDSU their chances of winning another NC is around 90% as I feel like they are the only real threat to the Bison this year. Of course that "statistic" is totally made up.

For those of you who were told there would be no math, this post is not for you. Look away.

For what it’s worth, before yesterday’s playoff games, NDSU was given a 66.3% chance to win the National Championship in Frisco again. The team with the next-best chance to win the title was Eastern Washington (14%) and then South Dakota State (11.8 %), Weber State, Northern Iowa and James Madison (all 1.6%), Kennesaw State (1.4%) and UC-Davis (0.8%).

After yesterday’s playoff games, NDSU is now given a slightly lower 65.2% chance to win it all again. Next is Eastern Washington, whose title chances improved to 14.5%, then South Dakota State, whose chances have risen the most, up to 12.7%. Weber State is now up to 1.8%, James Madison remains at 1.6%, and Kennesaw State actually dropped to 1.3%. Northern Iowa moved past UC-Davis now with a 1.2% chance of winning it all with UC-Davis improving a tad to 0.9%.

Duquesne beating Towson in a monsoon yesterday was a real gift for the Jackrabbits. Their chance to win in Round Two went from being 94.9% all the way to 99.6%, and with a likely easier opponent next week in Duquesne rather than Towson, their chances of winning a third-round game – most likely against Kennesaw – improved almost 4%. The Jacks chances of getting to Frisco increased from 17.1% to 18.4%.

While James Madison stayed steady at 1.6% to win the Championship, their win yesterday did actually improve their chances against Colgate in Round Two. Prior to yesterday’s games, James Madison (52.5% chance to win) was a slight favorite to beat Colgate (45.6%). Now, their chances have improved to 57.2% while Colgate’s have fallen to 42.8%.

Probably due to their lackluster win, the UNI Panthers’ chances of getting to Frisco have decreased, although ironically, their chances of winning it IF they get there improved a bit yesterday. Prior to their win against Lamar, UNI’s probability of reaching the championship game was at 9.9%, and now they are at 7.9%. It appears as if SEMO taking out Stony Brook did a lot to improve Weber State’s chances to appear in the title game as they increased by a full two percent, from 17.4% to 19.4%.

A lot of numbers, I know, but if you are a Bison fan or a math dweeb this is really fun to look at. The Bison basically have two chances out of three to win another National Championship, Eastern Washington has about one chance in seven and SDSU has about one chance in eight. Nobody else is really even on the radar. As someone was once quoted as saying: Me like-y.

Edit: realized after I posted this that I should have said something like if SDSU
wasn't in the playoff field sincw getting past SDSU means NDSU is already in Friaco at that point.

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[bisonaudit]

Montana state isn't even at 1% chance to beat NDSU. wow. they're that bad?

MVFC is that good. Deserved 7 playoff teams. Montana St is a bubble team based on Sagarin, third team out.

[gumby013]

Sagarin already updated. Still at #24.

[bisonaudit]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team............... Qtr... Semi... Final
81.63 (1) North Dakota State. 95.3% 79.9% 69.0%
61.15 (8) Colgate................... 4.7%.. 1.0%. 0.4%

72.68 (5) South Dakota State 71.7% 16.7% 11.4%
62.62 (4) Kennesaw State..... 28.3%.. 2.4%.. 1.0%


69.74 (3) Eastern Washington 77.9% 59.3% 14.5%
61.67 (6) UC Davis............... 22.1%. 12.3%.. 1.3%

53.80 (7) Maine................... 26.4%.. 3.1%.. 0.1%
60.03 (2) Weber State........... 73.6% 25.2%. 2.2%

[bisonaudit]

Sagarin is 12 of 16 so far. Probablisticly would have expected 12.8 at this point.

[Professor Chaos]

Weber is better than Sagarin gives them credit for. The two best teams are still in the top side of the bracket but Weber deserves to be above EWU. It'll be an MVFC semi and a Big Sky semi.

[bisonaudit]

Weber is better than Sagarin gives them credit for. The two best teams are still in the top side of the bracket but Weber deserves to be above EWU. It'll be an MVFC semi and a Big Sky semi.

Could be that Weber is better than EWU, but I’m not sure what that has to do with the composition of the semi finals as both are favored to advance along with the two best teams in the country.