2018 Sagarin Says

[gumby013]

Dropped all the way to #24. Pulled the starters way too soon against bye.

[bisonaudit]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team............... Rd2... Qtr... Semi... Final
80.90 (1) North Dakota State. 99.2% 90.3% 75.3% 65.2%
52.99 Montana State.............. 0.8%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%..0.0%

60.13 (8) Colgate................. 42.8%.. 2.2%.. 0.5%. 0.2%
67.48 James Madison............ 57.2%. 7.4%.. 2.8%.. 1.6%


72.00 (5) South Dakota State 99.6% 72.2% 18.4% 12.7%
40.48 Duquesne..................... 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

63.16 (4) Kennesaw State..... 84.3% 26.6%.. 3.0%.. 1.3%
54.45 Wofford...................... 15.7%.. 1.2%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%



69.16 (3) Eastern Washington 92.2% 70.3% 55.4% 14.5%
54.84 Nicholls State............... 7.8%.. 2.3%.. 0.9%.. 0.0%

60.69 (6) UC Davis............... 57.0% 14.4%.. 8.4%.. 0.9%
63.19 Northern Iowa............. 43.0% 13.0%.. 7.9%. 1.2%


51.41 (7) Maine................... 44.8% 13.0%.. 1.6%.. 0.1%
58.05 Jacksonville State........ 55.2% 25.6%.. 6.0%.. 0.5%

59.00 (2) Weber State........... 83.7% 56.3% 19.4%. 1.8%
50.62 SE Missouri State......... 16.3%.. 5.1%.. 0.5%.. 0.0%

[bisonaudit]

Despite bye week and home field, two road favorites and a third that would be favored in a neutral circumstance. Props to the committee.

[bruinbison]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team......... Rd1... Rd2... Qtr... Semi... Final
81.14 (1) North Dakota State.... 99.5% 90.8% 76.4% 66.3%
44.67 Incarnate Word...... 29.9% 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
52.05 Montana State....... 70.1% 0.4%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%..0.0%

60.30 (8) Colgate.................... 45.6%.. 2.2%.. 0.5%. 0.2%
53.03 Delaware.............. 10.0% 1.8%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
68.08 James Madison..... 90.0% 52.5%. 6.9%.. 2.8%.. 1.6%


72.18 (5) South Dakota State... 94.9% 68.5% 17.1% 11.8%
36.38 Duquesne............... 5.9% 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
55.30 Towson................. 94.1% 5.1%.. 1.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

62.25 (4) Kennesaw State........ 86.8% 29.2%.. 3.1%.. 1.4%
52.67 Elon..................... 41.3% 5.2%.. 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
53.30 Wofford................ 58.7% 8.0%.. 0.6%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%



69.17 (3) Eastern Washington... 93.0% 69.4% 55.0% 14.0%
38.50 San Diego............... 8.6% 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
54.68 Nicholls State........ 91.4% 6.9%.. 1.9%.. 0.7%.. 0.0%

60.65 (6) UC Davis.................. 54.1% 13.4%.. 7.8%.. 0.8%
40.84 Lamar..................... 2.8% 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
64.62 Northern Iowa...... 97.2% 45.8% 15.3%.. 9.9%. 1.6%


51.97 (7) Maine...................... 49.1% 14.7%.. 1.8%.. 0.1%
42.25 East Tennessee State 8.6% 1.2%. 0.1%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
58.41 Jacksonville State. 91.4% 49.7% 23.5%.. 5.6%.. 0.5%

59.01 (2) Weber State.............. 76.1% 51.3% 17.4%. 1.6%
56.64 Stony Brook......... 65.6% 19.3%. 9.2%.. 1.7%.. 0.1%
48.88 SE Missouri State... 34.4% 4.6%.. 1.2%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%

So that was quite the upset Duquesne pulled off against Towson.
And Lamar almost did it too against Northern Iowa.

[bisonaudit]

So that was quite the upset Duquesne pulled off against Towson.
And Lamar almost did it too against Northern Iowa.

Yeah. 6% or one in 17ish. If all the 1st round games were that lopsided you’d expect one every two years or so.

Probablisticly, Sagarin should have gotten about 6.6 games correct out of 8 this weekend. It actually got 6 of 8 despite the big Duquesne upset.

[EC8CH]

Does Ambrose still wear his runner-up earring?

[bruinbison]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team............... Rd2... Qtr... Semi... Final
80.90 (1) North Dakota State. 99.2% 90.3% 75.3% 65.2%
52.99 Montana State.............. 0.8%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%..0.0%

60.13 (8) Colgate................. 42.8%.. 2.2%.. 0.5%. 0.2%
67.48 James Madison............ 57.2%. 7.4%.. 2.8%.. 1.6%


72.00 (5) South Dakota State 99.6% 72.2% 18.4% 12.7%
40.48 Duquesne..................... 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

63.16 (4) Kennesaw State..... 84.3% 26.6%.. 3.0%.. 1.3%
54.45 Wofford...................... 15.7%.. 1.2%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%



69.16 (3) Eastern Washington 92.2% 70.3% 55.4% 14.5%
54.84 Nicholls State............... 7.8%.. 2.3%.. 0.9%.. 0.0%

60.69 (6) UC Davis............... 57.0% 14.4%.. 8.4%.. 0.9%
63.19 Northern Iowa............. 43.0% 13.0%.. 7.9%. 1.2%


51.41 (7) Maine................... 44.8% 13.0%.. 1.6%.. 0.1%
58.05 Jacksonville State........ 55.2% 25.6%.. 6.0%.. 0.5%

59.00 (2) Weber State........... 83.7% 56.3% 19.4%. 1.8%
50.62 SE Missouri State......... 16.3%.. 5.1%.. 0.5%.. 0.0%

Will the Jackrabbits take care of business?
Or will they be too overconfident against Duquesne,
thinking back to their 51-13 win against Duquesne last season?

[bisonaudit]

So that was quite the upset Duquesne pulled off against Towson.
And Lamar almost did it too against Northern Iowa.

Less charitably, and more accurately, on the Duquesne/Towson miss. The model was off 3 standard deviations on the predicted margin. The equivalent this week would be Duquesne winning by 6 at SDSU.

[EC8CH]

Will the Jackrabbits take care of business?
Or will they be too overconfident against Duquesne,
thinking back to their 51-13 win against Duquesne last season?

The little bit I caught Towson D didn't commit physically to stopping the run to put it nicely. SDSU has learned to do that, so I doubt they allow for back to back upsets.

[MNLonghorn10]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team............... Rd2... Qtr... Semi... Final
80.90 (1) North Dakota State. 99.2% 90.3% 75.3% 65.2%
52.99 Montana State.............. 0.8%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%..0.0%

60.13 (8) Colgate................. 42.8%.. 2.2%.. 0.5%. 0.2%
67.48 James Madison............ 57.2%. 7.4%.. 2.8%.. 1.6%


72.00 (5) South Dakota State 99.6% 72.2% 18.4% 12.7%
40.48 Duquesne..................... 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

63.16 (4) Kennesaw State..... 84.3% 26.6%.. 3.0%.. 1.3%
54.45 Wofford...................... 15.7%.. 1.2%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%



69.16 (3) Eastern Washington 92.2% 70.3% 55.4% 14.5%
54.84 Nicholls State............... 7.8%.. 2.3%.. 0.9%.. 0.0%

60.69 (6) UC Davis............... 57.0% 14.4%.. 8.4%.. 0.9%
63.19 Northern Iowa............. 43.0% 13.0%.. 7.9%. 1.2%


51.41 (7) Maine................... 44.8% 13.0%.. 1.6%.. 0.1%
58.05 Jacksonville State........ 55.2% 25.6%.. 6.0%.. 0.5%

59.00 (2) Weber State........... 83.7% 56.3% 19.4%. 1.8%
50.62 SE Missouri State......... 16.3%.. 5.1%.. 0.5%.. 0.0%

Montana state isn't even at 1% chance to beat NDSU. wow. they're that bad?