2018 Sagarin Says

[Professor Chaos]

Yeah, except that if you take NDSU out of the NDSU side of the bracket, all the sudden, the percentages of top-bracket teams winning it all shoot up pretty dramatically* (so do bottom bracket teams, of course, but not nearly as much.)

* That said, I'm definitely not doing the math.

Do they? I'd assume that the title percentage would go up proportionately for everyone but I could be wrong.

These are all very rough comparisons, but how do you compare the top half of the bracket minus its top team to the bottom half without also taking out its top team? Based on the Sagarin rating that's EWU at 14%, so the bottom half is only 4.7%.

Just for fun, swap out EWU for SDSU would be a 2.2% swing so, 12.8% vs 6.9%.

Based on the Sagarin ratings it seems pretty clear the top half of the bracket is a much harder path to Frisco for the top team compared to the bottom half, which doesn't make a lot of sense for the #1 seed, but oh well. Committee gonna to what committee always does.

I just don't buy the whole "top half is so much tougher than the bottom half" theory so I thought those numbers were interesting. If Tony's right and taking out NDSU increases the title chance for the top half teams a whole lot more than it would for the bottom teams then I'm off base. Wouldn't be the first time.

[Wally]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team......... Rd1... Rd2... Qtr... Semi... Final
81.14 (1) North Dakota State.... 99.5% 90.8% 76.4% 66.3%
44.67 Incarnate Word...... 29.9% 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
52.05 Montana State....... 70.1% 0.4%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%..0.0%

60.30 (8) Colgate.................... 45.6%.. 2.2%.. 0.5%. 0.2%
53.03 Delaware.............. 10.0% 1.8%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
68.08 James Madison..... 90.0% 52.5%. 6.9%.. 2.8%.. 1.6%


72.18 (5) South Dakota State... 94.9% 68.5% 17.1% 11.8%
36.38 Duquesne............... 5.9% 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
55.30 Towson................. 94.1% 5.1%.. 1.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

62.25 (4) Kennesaw State........ 86.8% 29.2%.. 3.1%.. 1.4%
52.67 Elon..................... 41.3% 5.2%.. 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
53.30 Wofford................ 58.7% 8.0%.. 0.6%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%



69.17 (3) Eastern Washington... 93.0% 69.4% 55.0% 14.0%
38.50 San Diego............... 8.6% 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
54.68 Nicholls State........ 91.4% 6.9%.. 1.9%.. 0.7%.. 0.0%

60.65 (6) UC Davis.................. 54.1% 13.4%.. 7.8%.. 0.8%
40.84 Lamar..................... 2.8% 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
64.62 Northern Iowa...... 97.2% 45.8% 15.3%.. 9.9%. 1.6%


51.97 (7) Maine...................... 49.1% 14.7%.. 1.8%.. 0.1%
42.25 East Tennessee State 8.6% 1.2%. 0.1%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
58.41 Jacksonville State. 91.4% 49.7% 23.5%.. 5.6%.. 0.5%

59.01 (2) Weber State.............. 76.1% 51.3% 17.4%. 1.6%
56.64 Stony Brook......... 65.6% 19.3%. 9.2%.. 1.7%.. 0.1%
48.88 SE Missouri State... 34.4% 4.6%.. 1.2%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%

[MNLonghorn10]

jokes on you...audits been spitballing these #s since 2015 when he figured out we just go along with what he said

[bisonaudit]

The 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 8th best teams are in the top half and the 3rd, 5th, and 7th best teams are in the 3rd quarter of the bracket. Which, by process of elimination leaves none of the best 8 teams in the last quarter of the draw.

The bracket is not balanced.

[thebootfitter]

The 1st, 2nd, 4th, 6th, and 8th best teams are in the top half and the 3rd, 5th, and 7th best teams are in the 3rd quarter of the bracket. Which, by process of elimination leaves none of the best 8 teams in the last quarter of the draw.

The bracket is not balanced.

That bottom quarter in itself looks fairly balanced, though. Just unlikely for any of those teams to reach the championship game. And definitely not a good way to set up a "proper" tournament, though I think we all know that's not the goal of the committee anyway. Just would be nice if it could be a little closer to balanced, but it is what it is. I'll still watch some playoff games and all the Bison games and wait in anticipation for the field to narrow each week and see who is standing at the end.

[IzzyFlexion]

Sagarin Rankings: Big Ten/NDSU Mashup:

3 Michigan (BIG 10 East)
6 Ohio State (BIG 10 East)
8 Iowa (BIG 10 West)
10 Penn State (BIG 10 East)
23 North Dakota State (MVFC)
25 Wisconsin (BIG 10 West)
26 Michigan State (BIG 10 East)
32 Northwestern (BIG 10 West)
39 Purdue (BIG 10 West)
50 Maryland (BIG 10 East)
57 Nebraska (BIG 10 West)
61 Minnesota (BIG 10 West)
64 Indiana (BIG 10 East)
111 Illinois (BIG 10 West)
127 Rutgers (BIG 10 East)

[Hammerhead]

For comparison, here are the Sagarin ratings for the seeds in 2017 and this year sorted by the Sagarin rating with the seeds in the left column.

2017
2 North Dakota State AA 76.20
1 James Madison AA 73.00
5 South Dakota State AA 70.88
3 Jacksonville State AA 63.60
8 Southern Utah AA 62.56
4 Central Arkansas AA 62.20
6 Sam Houston State AA 57.34
7 Stony Brook AA 56.07

Edit -- I did a bad job of pasting info last time.

2018
1 North Dakota State AA 81.14
5 South Dakota State AA 72.18
3 Eastern Washington AA 69.17
4 Kennesaw State AA 63.25
6 UC Davis AA 60.65
8 Colgate AA 60.30
2 Weber State AA 59.01
7 Maine AA 51.97

[TinyBisonFan]

For comparison, here are the Sagarin ratings for the seeds in 2017 and this year sorted by the Sagarin rating with the seeds in the left column.

2017
2 North Dakota State AA 76.20
1 James Madison AA 73.00
5 South Dakota State AA 70.88
3 Jacksonville State AA 63.60
8 Southern Utah AA 62.56
4 Central Arkansas AA 62.20
6 Sam Houston State AA 57.34
7 Stony Brook AA 56.07



2018
1 North Dakota State AA 81.14
4 Kennesaw State AA 63.25
3 Eastern Washington AA 69.17
5 South Dakota State AA 72.18
2 Weber State AA 59.01
7 Maine AA 51.97
6 UC Davis AA 60.65
8 Colgate AA 60.30

(Sorted)
2018
1 North Dakota State AA 81.14
5 South Dakota State AA 72.18
3 Eastern Washington AA 69.17
4 Kennesaw State AA 63.25
6 UC Davis AA 60.65
8 Colgate AA 60.30
2 Weber State AA 59.01
7 Maine AA 51.97

[TransAmBison]

Can we get this sorted by injuries -Random JMU poster

[heffray]

Can we get this sorted by injuries -Random JMU poster

If I could give you more rep, I would...