2018 Sagarin Says

[thebootfitter]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team......... Rd1... Rd2... Qtr... Semi... Final
81.14 (1) North Dakota State.... 99.5% 90.8% 76.4% 66.3%
...
48.88 SE Missouri State... 34.4% 4.6%.. 1.2%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%

Thanks! I've been waiting for this post! :-)

[tony]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team......... Rd1... Rd2... Qtr... Semi... Final
81.14 (1) North Dakota State.... 99.5% 90.8% 76.4% 66.3%
44.67 Incarnate Word...... 29.9% 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
52.05 Montana State....... 70.1% 0.4%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%..0.0%

60.30 (8) Colgate.................... 45.6%.. 2.2%.. 0.5%. 0.2%
53.03 Delaware.............. 10.0% 1.8%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
68.08 James Madison..... 90.0% 52.5%. 6.9%.. 2.8%.. 1.6%


72.18 (5) South Dakota State... 94.9% 68.5% 17.1% 11.8%
36.38 Duquesne............... 5.9% 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
55.30 Towson................. 94.1% 5.1%.. 1.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

62.25 (4) Kennesaw State........ 86.8% 29.2%.. 3.1%.. 1.4%
52.67 Elon..................... 41.3% 5.2%.. 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
53.30 Wofford................ 58.7% 8.0%.. 0.6%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%



69.17 (3) Eastern Washington... 93.0% 69.4% 55.0% 14.0%
38.50 San Diego............... 8.6% 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
54.68 Nicholls State........ 91.4% 6.9%.. 1.9%.. 0.7%.. 0.0%

60.65 (6) UC Davis.................. 54.1% 13.4%.. 7.8%.. 0.8%
40.84 Lamar..................... 2.8% 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
64.62 Northern Iowa...... 97.2% 45.8% 15.3%.. 9.9%. 1.6%


51.97 (7) Maine...................... 49.1% 14.7%.. 1.8%.. 0.1%
42.25 East Tennessee State 8.6% 1.2%. 0.1%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
58.41 Jacksonville State. 91.4% 49.7% 23.5%.. 5.6%.. 0.5%

59.01 (2) Weber State.............. 76.1% 51.3% 17.4%. 1.6%
56.64 Stony Brook......... 65.6% 19.3%. 9.2%.. 1.7%.. 0.1%
48.88 SE Missouri State... 34.4% 4.6%.. 1.2%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%

To sum up, a team from the NDSU side of the bracket has > 82% chance of winning the championship (according to Sagarin.)

Seems fair and balanced.

[bisonaudit]

Does the #2 seed currently have a 1.6% chance of winning the championship? Lol

They shouldn’t have been seeded. But, you know, they won the conference auto bid so they must have been the best team. Wait, were we talking about Maine or Weber State?

[thebootfitter]

To sum up, a team from the NDSU side of the bracket has > 82% chance of winning the championship (according to Sagarin.)

Seems fair and balanced.

Well, to be fair... when one of those teams is NDSU, nothing is fair and balanced.

[Professor Chaos]

Well, to be fair... when one of those teams is NDSU, nothing is fair and balanced.

Bottom half of bracket: 18.7%
Top half of bracket (minus NDSU): 15%

[thebootfitter]

Bottom half of bracket: 18.7%
Top half of bracket (minus NDSU): 15%

Exactly! Though if you took NDSU out of the equation entirely, those other percentages would also change. Of course, you'd have to put something in place of NDSU for calculating. Maybe just take the first team out and move everyone down a notch for the exercise.

[WhoRepsTheLurker]

Seems fair and balanced.

Only in pudville …

Seeding 1-4 straight Sagarin would have been the correct way to build this bracket

[tony]

Bottom half of bracket: 18.7%
Top half of bracket (minus NDSU): 15%

Yeah, except that if you take NDSU out of the NDSU side of the bracket, all the sudden, the percentages of top-bracket teams winning it all shoot up pretty dramatically* (so do bottom bracket teams, of course, but not nearly as much.)

* That said, I'm definitely not doing the math.

[CoachFSCB]

Playoff picture:

Sagarin (Seed) Team......... Rd1... Rd2... Qtr... Semi... Final
81.14 (1) North Dakota State.... 99.5% 90.8% 76.4% 66.3%
44.67 Incarnate Word...... 29.9% 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
52.05 Montana State....... 70.1% 0.4%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%..0.0%

60.30 (8) Colgate.................... 45.6%.. 2.2%.. 0.5%. 0.2%
53.03 Delaware.............. 10.0% 1.8%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
68.08 James Madison..... 90.0% 52.5%. 6.9%.. 2.8%.. 1.6%


72.18 (5) South Dakota State... 94.9% 68.5% 17.1% 11.8%
36.38 Duquesne............... 5.9% 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
55.30 Towson................. 94.1% 5.1%.. 1.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%

62.25 (4) Kennesaw State........ 86.8% 29.2%.. 3.1%.. 1.4%
52.67 Elon..................... 41.3% 5.2%.. 0.4%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
53.30 Wofford................ 58.7% 8.0%.. 0.6%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%



69.17 (3) Eastern Washington... 93.0% 69.4% 55.0% 14.0%
38.50 San Diego............... 8.6% 0.0%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
54.68 Nicholls State........ 91.4% 6.9%.. 1.9%.. 0.7%.. 0.0%

60.65 (6) UC Davis.................. 54.1% 13.4%.. 7.8%.. 0.8%
40.84 Lamar..................... 2.8% 0.1%. 0.0%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
64.62 Northern Iowa...... 97.2% 45.8% 15.3%.. 9.9%. 1.6%


51.97 (7) Maine...................... 49.1% 14.7%.. 1.8%.. 0.1%
42.25 East Tennessee State 8.6% 1.2%. 0.1%.. 0.0%.. 0.0%
58.41 Jacksonville State. 91.4% 49.7% 23.5%.. 5.6%.. 0.5%

59.01 (2) Weber State.............. 76.1% 51.3% 17.4%. 1.6%
56.64 Stony Brook......... 65.6% 19.3%. 9.2%.. 1.7%.. 0.1%
48.88 SE Missouri State... 34.4% 4.6%.. 1.2%.. 0.1%.. 0.0%

For those interested, the Massey Ratings are much the same. It gives NDSU a 64.97% chance to win the national championship, followed by Eastern Washington at 16.09%. After that, it has South Dakota State with a 7.01 % chance to win, followed by Weber State (3.40%), UC-Davis (2.25%), James Madison (1.91%), Kennesaw State (1.86%), Colgate (0.79%) and Northern Iowa (0.57%).

https://www.masseyratings.com/tourn?t=1026

[EC8CH]

Bottom half of bracket: 18.7%
Top half of bracket (minus NDSU): 15%

These are all very rough comparisons, but how do you compare the top half of the bracket minus its top team to the bottom half without also taking out its top team? Based on the Sagarin rating that's EWU at 14%, so the bottom half is only 4.7%.

Just for fun, swap out EWU for SDSU would be a 2.2% swing so, 12.8% vs 6.9%.

Based on the Sagarin ratings it seems pretty clear the top half of the bracket is a much harder path to Frisco for the top team compared to the bottom half, which doesn't make a lot of sense for the #1 seed, but oh well. Committee gonna to what committee always does.