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Thread: 2018 Sagarin Says

  1. #251
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by GSUsTALON View Post
    At this time it doesn't really mater what any poll says. NDSU wins the FCS NC.
    I like the way you think

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    Its not till "death do us part"....unless you make another call like that ...you bum!!
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  2. #252
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by stevdock View Post
    I think this year is proving that this formula needs some updating. There is no way that ISU-R and UNI should be anywhere close to the top 10 in FCS with some of the losses they've taken this year. And its very interesting that the team that may get the third mvfc playoff spot isn't even on the list.
    Pretty sure the only things the committee looks at are number of D1 wins and if you lost to an FBS school. If they knew what they were doing, they’d treat a loss to us like losing to a top 25 fbs program.

  3. #253
    89MTBISON's Avatar
    89MTBISON is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by stevdock View Post
    I think this year is proving that this formula needs some updating. There is no way that ISU-R and UNI should be anywhere close to the top 10 in FCS with some of the losses they've taken this year. And its very interesting that the team that may get the third mvfc playoff spot isn't even on the list.
    If computer algorithim's could throw their hands up in disgust, they would at this years' FCS season. In the end this years Bison are head and shoulders above everyone else. Seems as though the FCS is trending down, except for us.

  4. #254
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Here is a task for research buffs.

    How many fcs teams have finished in the top 100 the last ten seasons or so? Has the fcs gotten better or worse?

  5. #255
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by stevdock View Post
    I think this year is proving that this formula needs some updating. There is no way that ISU-R and UNI should be anywhere close to the top 10 in FCS with some of the losses they've taken this year. And its very interesting that the team that may get the third mvfc playoff spot isn't even on the list.
    All Sagarin is trying to do is objectively predict winners (or point spreads if that’s your game) from prior results. That may or may not comport with your or the committee’s notion a who deserves to be ranked or participate in the playoffs.

    Personally, I think that at-large bids should be awarded to the best teams. That is to say the ones most likely to beat the best teams not making the playoff. Others may disagree. In practice I think it’s clear (from the tie break criteria for autobids for example) that the selection committee disagrees and that the conference’s know that they disagree.
    Last edited by bisonaudit; 11-13-2018 at 06:00 AM.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  6. #256
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by BadlandsBison View Post
    Here is a task for research buffs.

    How many fcs teams have finished in the top 100 the last ten seasons or so? Has the fcs gotten better or worse?
    FCS in Sagarin top 100:

    Current 8
    17-18 8
    16-17 12
    15-16 6

    formula changed prior to 2015 season and digging out the predictor isn’t as straight forward.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  7. #257
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by 89MTBISON View Post
    If computer algorithim's could throw their hands up in disgust, they would at this years' FCS season. In the end this years Bison are head and shoulders above everyone else. Seems as though the FCS is trending down, except for us.
    The job may be somewhat more difficult and the results marginally less certain, but these are the exact circumstance when you want an objective, predefined and back-tested model to help you. When the variables get complicated we’re really not very good at untangling the knots.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  8. #258
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by stevdock View Post
    I think you're right but there are some really messy examples this year. ISU-R is the biggest one. They beat Colorado St, lose to everybody good in the conference AND Butler, and still ranked 5th in FCS. I love our conference and what it has done for our team, especially come playoff time, but I don't think the MVFC this year is far and away the best conference out there like it has been in the past.
    That was YSU that lost to Butler... But your point is still valid that it's strange they would be 5th in the FCS.

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  9. #259
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    gumby013 is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Line opens at -31

    O/U of 59.5

    Hypothetical score of ~ 45-14
    Looking good Billy Ray!

  10. #260
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by bisonaudit View Post
    FCS in Sagarin top 100:

    Current 8
    17-18 8
    16-17 12
    15-16 6

    formula changed prior to 2015 season and digging out the predictor isn’t as straight forward.
    Thank you.

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