2018 Sagarin Says

[Bison 4 Life]

Wow, looking at those percentages for the last 6 games if they win these next 2 the 11-0 percentage will shoot way up.

The schedule really couldn't have worked out more favorably for the Bison this year (except maybe for the fact that they miss Indiana St in conference play) but in addition to 7 home games the likely top 2 contenders in the conference, SDSU and Illinois St, both come to Fargo.

That WIU game on 10/13 worries me though. It has letdown game written all over it since it follows 2 rivalry games (even though UNI fans still don't want to admit it's a rivalry) and Macomb is always an oddly tough place to play.

You shut your whore mouth. W ILL is the only damn road game I can make it to this year.

[Professor Chaos]

You shut your whore mouth. W ILL is the only damn road game I can make it to this year.

Well good, make sure you get the guys fired up. With their typical crowds they'll probably be able to hear you from anywhere in the stadium.

[Bison 4 Life]

Well good, make sure you get the guys fired up. With their typical crowds they'll probably be able to hear you from anywhere in the stadium.

It's pretty funny. Last time we sat next to the band and they were pretty good natured about having to sit through the whole thing.

Not a great place to watch a football game. Their only speaker is an enormous PA/amp that they place on the track on the scoreboard end so you can't quite hear everything and the stadium lights somehow make it darker, I'm not sure how that's physically possible. Also, track around the field. ugh.

[JDZ]

With conference play beginning its a good time to resurrect my historical contribution to this thread.

Thanks audit. Can you remind us how you come up with the probability to win against an individual opponent?

[bisonaudit]

Thanks audit. Can you remind us how you come up with the probability to win against an individual opponent?

Normal distribution around the Sagarin spread. Standard deviation of just under 14 points. The only adjustment I make to Sagarin is for teams coming off a bye week which is roughly equivalent to the home field advantage.

[TBone]

Shut up meg

[gumby013]

Down to 40.

[MNLonghorn10]

James madison went probably +30 on the predictor and is breathing down our necks for the top spot since forever.

need to throw about a 20 spot over UNI to separate a lil bit.

[bisonaudit]

With conference play beginning its a good time to resurrect my historical contribution to this thread.

Sagarin says...
NDSU regular season record and change from prior week:
11-0 41.6% +11.7%
10-1 41.4% -0.4%
9-2 14.4% -7.5%
8-3 2.4% -3.2%
7-4 0.2% -0.6%
6-5 0.01%
5-6 0.0002%
4-7 0.000002%

Opponent chance change line change
@ UNI 67.1% -6.2% -6.0 +2.5
@ W Ill 92.8% -1.0% -20.0 +1.0
v. Ill St 86.2% +2.0% -14.5 -1.0
@ USD 89.3% -1.1% -17.0 +0.5
v. YSU 97.5% +0.5% -26.5 -1.0
@ Mo St 91.0% -2.5% -18.0 +2.5
v. S Ill 97.9% +0.3% -27.5 -0.5

[NDSUBowler]

James madison went probably +30 on the predictor and is breathing down our necks for the top spot since forever.

need to throw about a 20 spot over UNI to separate a lil bit.

They jumped 18 spots to 46 and are right on NDSU's tail.