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Thread: 2018 Sagarin Says

  1. #31
    stevdock is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Chaos View Post
    If Indiana St was in the Sagarin FCS top 25 the entire MVFC would be in it.

    That said seeing UNI at #4 is exhibit A that there are still some pretty crazy pro-MVFC tendencies in Sagarin's algorithm.
    There is just TOO MUCH from last year in it for too long. Our entire conference should be in the top 25 if our top 2 teams make it to the semi's, especially when most of those teams played both NDSU and SDSU. SOS just goes off the chart because of that. Also probably one of the reasons Alabama is so insanely high too. That and absolutely curb stomping Ole Miss and wrecking the points algorithm doesn't hurt either

  2. #32
    DakotaOkie is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Beating the predicted spread over and over seems to be the key to moving up or staying there. That would be a key reason the “top” FBS teams never take the foot off the gas. They fall out of the top 5or 6 and are out of the conversation for “the playoffs”.

  3. #33
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by DakotaOkie View Post
    Beating the predicted spread over and over seems to be the key to moving up or staying there. That would be a key reason the “top” FBS teams never take the foot off the gas. They fall out of the top 5or 6 and are out of the conversation for “the playoffs”.
    They have a committee and Sagarin’s computer program isn’t on it.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  4. #34
    DakotaOkie is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by bisonaudit View Post
    They have a committee and Sagarin’s computer program isn’t on it.
    A committee that looks at polls and rankings

  5. #35
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by DakotaOkie View Post
    A committee that looks at polls and rankings
    Not really. They're like the FCS playoff selection committee where they don't "use" any outside polls to come up with their rankings. You can argue that subconsciously they know where these teams are ranked in the national polls and that affects them but to what extent is very questionable. Usually when the first CFP rankings come out (which isn't until mid-late October I think) there's a few significant deviations from where the national polls are at that time.

  6. #36
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by LongLostAlum View Post
    The only thing that would move us up much in the ratings this year is if we were to knock off a high ranked FBS team, and of course we don't have any of those scheduled. I'd say we're pretty much stuck in the 30-36 range, even if we go undefeated.
    Beating a high ranked FBS team would only help if they were rated higher than us and we beat them by more than the model predicted. But there are other ways to move up: Beat anybody on the schedule by more than the model predicts. And have other teams we play move up by beating their opponents by more than the model predicts.

  7. #37
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    When it comes to running up the score, it’s kind of bull shit to blame that on the algorithmic rankings. That is quintessential “eye test” behavior.
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  8. #38
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    im a huge believer in sagarins predictor. that last minute TD vs UNA was probably the difference between staying in the top 30 and falling to 33

  9. #39
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by MNLonghorn10 View Post
    im a huge believer in sagarins predictor. that last minute TD vs UNA was probably the difference between staying in the top 30 and falling to 33
    I have the perfect team for you.
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  10. #40
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by MNLonghorn10 View Post
    im a huge believer in sagarins predictor. that last minute TD vs UNA was probably the difference between staying in the top 30 and falling to 33
    Maybe. I don’t claim to know the algorithm for the predictor but assuming you are correct, and that we care about our position in Sagarin, then I think it was a good spend to get some younger guys some snaps.


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