2018 Sagarin Says

[1998braves64]

Is there a win loss record for Sagarin predictions?

BA puts this together every week...

Sagarin says...
NDSU regular season record and change from prior week:
11-0 97.4% +6.3%
10-1 2.5% -6.1%
9-2 0.02% -0.2%
8-3 0.00004%

Opponent chance change line change
v. YSU 99.5% +0.7% -35.5 -4.5
@ Mo St 98.5% +1.4% -29.5 -3.5
v. S Ill 99.4% +0.0% -34.0 -0.0

Or are you looking at sagarin prediction correct type record?

Sent by my phone on a bullet train from Hillsboro.

[CAS4127]

BA puts this together every week...


https://r.tapatalk.com/shareLink?url...1&share_type=t

Sagarin says...
NDSU regular season record and change from prior week:
11-0 97.4% +6.3%
10-1 2.5% -6.1%
9-2 0.02% -0.2%
8-3 0.00004%

Opponent chance change l......

Sent by my phone on a bullet train from Hillsboro.

I think he was seeking a broader view, as in how has Sagarin faired this year in predictions, or even for the last several years. I’d be interested in that also.


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[ByeSonBusiness]

I like looking at the RECENT predictor since it applies additional weight to recent games. That has NDSU at #18. Pretty neat.

[MNLonghorn10]

I like looking at the RECENT predictor since it applies additional weight to recent games. That has NDSU at #18. Pretty neat.

think you read that wrong..Wisconsins at 18, right above NDSU whos 23 in the predictor

[1998braves64]

I think he was seeking a broader view, as in how has Sagarin faired this year in predictions, or even for the last several years. I’d be interested in that also.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

Yup sort of realized that after I reread his post.

Sent by my phone on a bullet train from Hillsboro.

[bisonaudit]

www.thepredictiontracker.com

[thebootfitter]

think you read that wrong..Wisconsins at 18, right above NDSU whos 23 in the predictor

Nope. In the RECENT predictor column, NDSU is 18. Wisconsin is 38.

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
21 Wisconsin A = 81.58 5 3 0 68.33( 65) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 82.12 18 | 82.88 19 | 77.66 38
22 North Dakota State AA = 81.46 8 0 0 56.58( 126) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 81.12 23 | 82.28 23 | 83.34 18

[thebootfitter]

I think he was seeking a broader view, as in how has Sagarin faired this year in predictions, or even for the last several years. I’d be interested in that also.

Several years ago, I was recording both Sagarin and Massey for all of Div I each week and comparing the predicted W/L against the actual outcomes. Both Sagarin and Massey fell generally in the 70-80% range of predicting the correct winner.

My goal was to collect enough data to isolate variables like within conference vs OOC and FBS vs FCS games to see if there was any meaningful difference. (A lot of folks like to claim based on common sense that the computers were more reliable in conference than out and that cross-divisional games threw the computers off since there weren't enough common points. I just wanted to see if the data supported that hypothesis.) Unfortunately, life got busy and other priorities surfaced, so I was never able to capture enough data for a full analysis. I'm guessing someone out there has done something like this though.

[MNLonghorn10]

Nope. In the RECENT predictor column, NDSU is 18. Wisconsin is 38.

RATING W L T SCHEDL(RANK) VS top 10 | VS top 30 | PREDICTOR | GOLDEN_MEAN | RECENT
21 Wisconsin A = 81.58 5 3 0 68.33( 65) 1 1 0 | 1 1 0 | 82.12 18 | 82.88 19 | 77.66 38
22 North Dakota State AA = 81.46 8 0 0 56.58( 126) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 81.12 23 | 82.28 23 | 83.34 18

Oh dang mind blown. Ive always been trained to look at the blue column


So what's the difference between a RECENT and an update on sunday mornings?

Additional weight like what? Cuts out BS tds?

[ByeSonBusiness]

Oh dang mind blown. Ive always been trained to look at the blue column


So what's the difference between a RECENT and an update on sunday mornings?

Additional weight like what? Cuts out BS tds?

The explanation on the page just says it weighs recent games more heavily than early games. Supposed to tell you how the teams have been playing lately.