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Thread: 2018 Sagarin Says

  1. #241
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Sagarin says...
    NDSU regular season record and change from prior week:
    11-0 99.2% +1.3%
    10-1 0.8% -1.3%

    Opponent chance change line change
    v. S Ill 99.2% +0.0% -33.0 -0.5
    I have the honor to be Your Obedient Servant - B.Aud

    We all live in stories... It seems to me that a definition of any living vibrant society is that you constantly question those stories... The argument itself is freedom. It's not that you come to a conclusion about it. Through that argument you change your mind sometimes... That's how societies grow. When you can't retell for yourself the stories of your life then you live in a prison... Somebody else controls the story. - S. Rushdie

  2. #242
    KC Bison is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    what's the Sagarin point spread for this week?

  3. #243
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by KC Bison View Post
    what's the Sagarin point spread for this week?
    looks like -33
    ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

  4. #244
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by gumby013 View Post
    Back up to 24
    And we won't even get a FBS participation ribbon.

  5. #245
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Top 25 per Sagarin

    24 North Dakota State AA = 80.72 10 0 0 54.55( 137) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 80.35 24 | 81.49 23 | 82.72 18 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)
    59 South Dakota State AA = 72.09 7 2 0 53.40( 139) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 72.37 57 | 70.56 66 | 69.47 65 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)
    80 Eastern Washington AA = 67.51 8 2 0 50.25( 150) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 67.13 81 | 66.06 82 | 69.47 64 BIG SKY (AA)
    82 James Madison AA = 66.89 7 3 0 46.50( 174) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 67.74 79 | 64.36 90 | 60.68 107 COLONIAL (AA)
    92 Illinois State AA = 63.68 5 5 0 56.59( 128) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 64.63 89 | 60.79 103 | 56.60 117 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)
    95 Kennesaw State AA = 63.44 9 1 0 33.90( 227) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 63.56 94 | 60.43 106 | 61.81 102 BIG SOUTH (AA)
    97 Northern Iowa AA = 63.13 5 5 0 60.40( 104) 0 0 0 | 0 2 0 | 63.99 93 | 63.17 97 | 56.59 118 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)
    107 Colgate AA = 60.74 9 0 0 32.73( 234) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 60.34 107 | 59.28 110 | 62.81 99 PATRIOT (AA)
    108 UC Davis AA = 59.46 8 2 0 50.06( 151) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 59.10 110 | 59.62 108 | 61.24 104 BIG SKY (AA)
    112 Jacksonville State AA = 58.60 8 2 0 39.53( 206) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 58.61 112 | 56.99 117 | 57.67 113 OHIO VALLEY (AA)
    113 Stony Brook AA = 58.37 7 3 0 49.34( 160) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 57.63 115 | 58.12 114 | 62.98 97 COLONIAL (AA)
    114 Weber State AA = 58.30 8 2 0 49.63( 158) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 57.23 117 | 60.73 104 | 65.48 91 BIG SKY (AA)
    117 Dartmouth AA = 57.33 8 1 0 41.99( 198) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 56.65 119 | 55.53 126 | 61.42 103 IVY LEAGUE (AA)
    120 Towson AA = 56.78 7 3 0 49.23( 163) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 55.85 122 | 55.93 124 | 62.79 100 COLONIAL (AA)
    122 Western Illinois AA = 56.55 5 5 0 57.51( 120) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 55.85 121 | 57.05 116 | 60.85 106 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)
    123 Delaware AA = 56.17 7 3 0 48.25( 167) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 55.67 123 | 57.47 115 | 58.90 110 COLONIAL (AA)
    124 Samford AA = 55.93 5 5 0 49.32( 161) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 56.44 120 | 53.89 131 | 51.54 149 SOUTHERN (AA)
    127 Wofford AA = 54.54 7 3 0 44.54( 186) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 54.63 127 | 54.57 129 | 53.10 140 SOUTHERN (AA)
    129 Youngstown State AA = 54.16 4 6 0 55.96( 132) 0 1 0 | 0 2 0 | 53.86 131 | 54.94 127 | 55.51 123 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)
    134 Montana AA = 53.44 6 4 0 47.88( 169) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 53.20 135 | 53.22 133 | 54.38 127 BIG SKY (AA)
    135 Elon AA = 53.09 6 3 0 51.85( 146) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 53.06 137 | 54.11 130 | 52.56 142 COLONIAL (AA)
    136 South Dakota AA = 52.95 4 6 0 56.88( 126) 0 0 0 | 0 1 0 | 52.70 138 | 53.52 132 | 53.95 130 MISSOURI VALLEY (AA)
    138 Nicholls State AA = 52.81 7 3 0 43.59( 191) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 52.60 139 | 52.38 138 | 53.53 136 SOUTHLAND (AA)
    139 North Dakota AA = 52.50 6 4 0 46.84( 172) 0 1 0 | 0 1 0 | 52.19 141 | 52.56 137 | 53.92 132 BIG SKY (AA)
    142 New Hampshire AA = 51.88 4 6 0 54.27( 138) 0 0 0 | 0 0 0 | 51.18 144 | 52.03 141 | 56.00 121 COLONIAL (AA)

  6. #246
    stevdock is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    I think this year is proving that this formula needs some updating. There is no way that ISU-R and UNI should be anywhere close to the top 10 in FCS with some of the losses they've taken this year. And its very interesting that the team that may get the third mvfc playoff spot isn't even on the list.

  7. #247
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    BisManBison is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by stevdock View Post
    I think this year is proving that this formula needs some updating. There is no way that ISU-R and UNI should be anywhere close to the top 10 in FCS with some of the losses they've taken this year. And its very interesting that the team that may get the third mvfc playoff spot isn't even on the list.
    Strength of schedule gets a premium value in the algorithm and all the teams we play get a boost from that? Explains in part the absence of ISU.
    The young in this country do not know enough to be prudent,
    and therefore they attempt the impossible - and achieve it generation after generation - Pearl S. Buck

  8. #248
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by stevdock View Post
    I think this year is proving that this formula needs some updating. There is no way that ISU-R and UNI should be anywhere close to the top 10 in FCS with some of the losses they've taken this year. And its very interesting that the team that may get the third mvfc playoff spot isn't even on the list.
    Quote Originally Posted by BisManBison View Post
    Strength of schedule gets a premium value in the algorithm and all the teams we play get a boost from that? Explains in part the absence of ISU.
    I think that the algorithm also doesn't really care about wins and losses, it cares about scoring margin. So a team that it predicts will win by 10 but only wins by 3 will be treated the same as a team that it predicts will win by 4 and loses by 3 (if that makes sense).

  9. #249
    GSUsTALON's Avatar
    GSUsTALON is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    At this time it doesn't really mater what any poll says. NDSU wins the FCS NC.
    Georgia Southern Spread Option Football - Out weighed but seldom out played! Of course, GSU doesn’t run the Spread anymore – but still!

    If I want your opinion I’ll tell you what it should be! wwwGSUFANS.com (TALON TALK) Go Bison

  10. #250
    stevdock is offline Senior Member Gets their mail at the West Parking Lot
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    Default Re: 2018 Sagarin Says

    Quote Originally Posted by Professor Chaos View Post
    I think that the algorithm also doesn't really care about wins and losses, it cares about scoring margin. So a team that it predicts will win by 10 but only wins by 3 will be treated the same as a team that it predicts will win by 4 and loses by 3 (if that makes sense).
    I think you're right but there are some really messy examples this year. ISU-R is the biggest one. They beat Colorado St, lose to everybody good in the conference AND Butler, and still ranked 5th in FCS. I love our conference and what it has done for our team, especially come playoff time, but I don't think the MVFC this year is far and away the best conference out there like it has been in the past.

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