The only reason some people get lost in thought is because it's unfamiliar territory.
Paul Fix.
Hail the BISON!!!
Bisonville: Making football coaches out of arm-chair-QB's and jock sniffers for years!
Today's CAS GASF = ZERO
RELUCTANT MEMBER of the TOHBTC
And, don’t believe everything you think—jussayin’.
Liberals of BV need not respond to my posts. I don’t need to get any more dumb.
I looked at 10ish snaps where he throws and came up with 4 examples; 2 are one after the other. Randomly skipping NDSU games on Youtube. Sometimes he will do half field reads. If I had the patience to do GIFs these would look worst because his head just gets stuck looking at the receiver. Maybe I got "lucky" finding these. But in my looking at snaps this was a common theme.
Also a high level throw (good velocity, touch etc) is not what I am talking about. I am talking about the ability to go through a progression. I have seen a multitude of these in illustrations and videos every year from the NFL talking heads and PFF, so I got okay at understanding what those folks look for. Like I said I am a casual fan, so maybe I'm wrong. Then I went and watched Wentz going through a full progression. I can do a couple from Eagles or NDSU which shows how Carson was different if people want.
I am going to go with the likelihood that you are wrong. But I do appreciate the 10ish snaps you looked at. Anyone who deals with statistics would tell you that 10 is probably too many to look at though. Next time just look at 3, possibly 4, snaps and make a generalized judgment based off of those plays. That is likely what the NFL scouts do as well.
Bisonville: Making football coaches out of arm-chair-QB's and jock sniffers for years!
Today's CAS GASF = ZERO
RELUCTANT MEMBER of the TOHBTC
And, don’t believe everything you think—jussayin’.
Liberals of BV need not respond to my posts. I don’t need to get any more dumb.
Wonderful. Point being I didn't have to look at many plays. Show me how I am wrong? Instead of just random likelihood of you are wrong. And I've seen most recent year NDSU games multiple times and have noticed it. That's why I brought it up. I don't care to go and map how many times he does it. I swear it's like I am attacking the folks who post here. I am just pointing out what I see; I also vote on AGS and have watched 10+ FCS games a week for 3 years. No need to get passive aggressive.
It was fine when Carson was at NDSU? I saw him going through a progression. So did Brock Jensen and Steve Walker (although they weren't anywhere as good as Carson).
Did you? Because a knock on Carson was he didn't go through his progressions. Granted, a lot of his presnap reads were correct so he ended up locking on and essentially waiting.
With that said, I'll bite.
The read for Stick is correct on the first play pictured, especially if that is his first or hot read. This is my amateur take on it, but if you notice the coverage of the corner, it appears they are running cover 3(or three deep, whatever). His keys would be to see if that corner bails out into cover 3(it appears both corners are bailing out) and to see where the OLB is covering. While Stick should have looked over towards the middle of the field to prevent the above situation, he made the correct read presnap. It appears the OLB doesn't jump right out to cover the flat either. The corner makes a heads up play and drives on the route seeing Sticks head turned there. There are possibilities of different theories here, but there is a good chance the DB read the play, because Stick looking that side does not telegraph where the WR is going to end up. Even if Stick is looking his way, it could be a double move OR it could be a straight go route. In Cover 3/3 deep, he IS the over the top help(in theory).
Edit: Fairly certain this is Cover 4, I lost one of the safeties that goes really high off the screen. Regardless, it's still zone.
Second play: If you see the alignment prior to the snap, it appears they are running cover 1...or single high safety with man elsewhere. I obviously don't have the video in front of me, but there was likely motion to determine man or zone. From there, I'm guessing there was play action as their safety's first steps were towards the line of scrimmage. I can't say for sure Stick saw this from your images, but there is a good chance he might have seen it out of the corner of his eye. At this point, he gives his WR a chance to win 1 on 1. I would definitely not say this is a bad read. Is there a better one? Pretty common for that to happen, but if you think you have a good shot on your 1st read, that's why it's your first read. Plus, this was the SDSU game, he was clearly pressing the entire game.
Third play: This has the possibility to be man coverage, with the safety covering up in the inside receiver. I can't see the outside receiver or what route they run from the pictures provided. Just for sake of explanation, it appears as tho the inside receiver has an outside breaking route. Assuming the outside receiver clears the area, this, again, is the one on one opportunity that you want your WRs to be able to exploit, especially if the defenders immediate response after the snap is to take a step or two backwards. You should like your chances on hitting an outside breaking route against a safety 8 yards off the ball. Think game winner against UNI in 2015 regular season. Probably same or similar play.
Fourth play: This appears to be a 3 high or cover 3 look, or maybe cover 4, I can't tell what the middle safety is doing exactly, as he is already breaking to cover inside. The inside corner turns into a rusher and comes at the RT. If you notice the top WR clears out and drags the outside corner with him over the top, allowing the underneath players some room to work against the defense. There is a good chance there might have been a better read on the play, especially if he pumps. The read WAS open, however, so it's not necessarily a bad play. You said the WR on top slips by, yet on your second pic, he is clearly covered over the top by the defender. It's not until Stick has thrown the ball does that defender actively peel off the top WR.
In short, while Stick is far from perfect, saying he made bad reads or locked on to covered receivers is a little disingenuous. He can certainly learn more of the nuances of the position going forward, like looking off a safety, or making the presnap read and not going back to your target until right before you let it rip. This is sort of what I saw with Wentz in college as well - he was so sure his read would be open that he'd "lock on" to it.
Just my humble opinion based on the above basic images. I'm probably wrong on some of the coverages based on the still images of the TV copy.
Last edited by EndZoneQB; 05-24-2018 at 08:58 PM.