Originally Posted by
Big Bird
It's early, but this is how I see it (Locks=will get one, probable=75% chance, Borderline=50% and rest of the season will determine, longshot=25% max):
125- 4 Locks: Lamont UVU, Piccinninni OkSt, Schwarm UNI, Moisey WVU. 1 Probable: Moody OU. 2 Borderline: Bianchi NDSU and Brown SDSU
133- 3 Locks: Gross SDSU, Bridges WYO, Brock OkSt. 1 Probable: Montoya UNC. 3 Borderline: Schmitt WVU, Sykora NDSU, Parker ISU. 2 longshot: Rubio OU and Jiminez AFA
141- 3 Locks: Meredith Wyo, Heil OkSt, and Alber UNI. 1 Probable: Longo OU. 1 Borderline: Storr ISU. 1 Longshot: Monserrat WVU
149- 2 Locks: OkSt starter (Probably Geo), and Thomsen UNI. 3 Probable: Degen ISU, Gliva NDSU, and Jefferies OU. 2 Borderline: Olivas FSU and Fate UNC. 2 Longshot: Lamont UVU and Turner Wyo.
157- 3 Locks: Ream NDSU, Zilverberg SDSU, Colgan WYO. 0 Probable. 2 Borderline (although I wouls put Mossing AFA here too): Thomas OU and Blaylock OkSt. Longshot: Moore WVU
165- 4 Locks: Rogers OSU, Fogarty NDSU, Ashworth WYO, Romero UVU. 2 Probable: Torres UNC and Barnes OU. 0 Borderline
174- 4 Locks: Lujan UNI, Smith OkSt, Kocer SDSU, Mejias OU. 0 Probable. 1 Borderline: Bastian UVU. 1 Longshot: Pope Wyo
184- 1 Lock: Foster UNI. 2 Probable: Moore OkSt and Gabel UNC. 1 Borderline: Mueller SDSU. 1 Longshot: Jantzer UVU
197- 4 Locks (although if OkSt let Marsden keep wrestling duals here and then entered Weigel for B12 time, it would be 5): Rotert SDSU, Holschlag UNI, Seeley UNC, Smith WVU. 0 Probable. 1 Possible: Orndorff UVU. 1 Longshot: Eaton NDSU
HWT- 1 Lock: White OkSt. 1 Probable: Dennison UVU. 0 Borderline. 3 Longshots: Harrington ISU, Stibral NDSU, Isley UNI
I just did this very quickly so I probably missed some guys.
I think you're pretty close with all of it, although I have the B12 getting more than you at most weights.
One big thing that is preventing clarity, is the minimum D1 match number. At this point in the season, a lot of good wrestlers don't yet have 17 matches vs D1 competition at the given weight, which is required to earn an AQ spot