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Thread: Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

  1. #1
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    Default Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

    OK, so maybe I'm jumping the gun a little on this one but in looking long range at what the New Big XII could expect for AQ Spots at this year's Big XII Tournament I have comprised my guess at this point of the season of how many we can expect. I hope BigBird and Andrege can add to this since they usually have a little more insight on these things than I do but here is what I think at this point of the season.

    125 4-5 AQ Spots with at this point of the season I think it's a solid 4
    133 3-4 AQ Spots with a Solid 3, I think this can go to 4 prior to end of the season
    141 4-5 AQ Spots with a Solid 4 at this point of the game
    149 2-3 AQ Spots with a Solid 2 at this point but I wouldn't be surprised to see this number go up to 4
    157 3-4 AQ Spots with a Solid 3 at this point, again here I expect to see this number at around 4
    165 4-5 AQ Spots with a Solid 4 at this point but this number could go to 5 pretty easy
    174 3-4 AQ Spots with a Solid 3 at this point
    184 1-2 AQ Spots, this weight is going to be a tough one when it comes to AQ spots
    197 4-5 AQ Spots with a Solid 4 at this point with a good possibility of that 5th spot
    285 1-2 AQ Spots, at this point another problem weight to get qualified at in my opinion

  2. #2
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    Default Re: Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

    It's early, but this is how I see it (Locks=will get one, probable=75% chance, Borderline=50% and rest of the season will determine, longshot=25% max):
    125- 4 Locks: Lamont UVU, Piccinninni OkSt, Schwarm UNI, Moisey WVU. 1 Probable: Moody OU. 2 Borderline: Bianchi NDSU and Brown SDSU
    133- 3 Locks: Gross SDSU, Bridges WYO, Brock OkSt. 1 Probable: Montoya UNC. 3 Borderline: Schmitt WVU, Sykora NDSU, Parker ISU. 2 longshot: Rubio OU and Jiminez AFA
    141- 3 Locks: Meredith Wyo, Heil OkSt, and Alber UNI. 1 Probable: Longo OU. 1 Borderline: Storr ISU. 1 Longshot: Monserrat WVU
    149- 2 Locks: OkSt starter (Probably Geo), and Thomsen UNI. 3 Probable: Degen ISU, Gliva NDSU, and Jefferies OU. 2 Borderline: Olivas FSU and Fate UNC. 2 Longshot: Lamont UVU and Turner Wyo.
    157- 3 Locks: Ream NDSU, Zilverberg SDSU, Colgan WYO. 0 Probable. 2 Borderline (although I wouls put Mossing AFA here too): Thomas OU and Blaylock OkSt. Longshot: Moore WVU
    165- 4 Locks: Rogers OSU, Fogarty NDSU, Ashworth WYO, Romero UVU. 2 Probable: Torres UNC and Barnes OU. 0 Borderline
    174- 4 Locks: Lujan UNI, Smith OkSt, Kocer SDSU, Mejias OU. 0 Probable. 1 Borderline: Bastian UVU. 1 Longshot: Pope Wyo
    184- 1 Lock: Foster UNI. 2 Probable: Moore OkSt and Gabel UNC. 1 Borderline: Mueller SDSU. 1 Longshot: Jantzer UVU
    197- 4 Locks (although if OkSt let Marsden keep wrestling duals here and then entered Weigel for B12 time, it would be 5): Rotert SDSU, Holschlag UNI, Seeley UNC, Smith WVU. 0 Probable. 1 Possible: Orndorff UVU. 1 Longshot: Eaton NDSU
    HWT- 1 Lock: White OkSt. 1 Probable: Dennison UVU. 0 Borderline. 3 Longshots: Harrington ISU, Stibral NDSU, Isley UNI

    I just did this very quickly so I probably missed some guys.

    I think you're pretty close with all of it, although I have the B12 getting more than you at most weights.

    One big thing that is preventing clarity, is the minimum D1 match number. At this point in the season, a lot of good wrestlers don't yet have 17 matches vs D1 competition at the given weight, which is required to earn an AQ spot

  3. #3
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    Default Re: Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

    I missed AJ Nevills Fresno State HWT, who is 50-50 to earn a spot.
    Drake Foster made a huge jump and he's probably at a little less than 50% to earn one

  4. #4
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    Default Re: Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

    I came across this on twitter. It breaks down a change in the AQ Process.

    IMG_2273.jpg

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    Default Re: Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

    Flo's predictions. 40 spots for the B12 https://www.flowrestling.org/article...n-flowrestling

    I believe the actual allocations come out on the 22nd. If Flo is correct, 133 sucks. Brock, bridges, and Gross are heavy favorites and all top 10 guys. Getting a 4th there would be huge for Cam Sykora.

  6. #6
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    Default Re: Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
    Flo's predictions. 40 spots for the B12 https://www.flowrestling.org/article...n-flowrestling

    I believe the actual allocations come out on the 22nd. If Flo is correct, 133 sucks. Brock, bridges, and Gross are heavy favorites and all top 10 guys. Getting a 4th there would be huge for Cam Sykora.
    I think we could still get 4 or even 5 AQ spots at 133. I'm basing this on the last RPI and Coaches Panel, so I'm not factoring in how those might have changed. Nobody on either of those lists was affected by too few matches for RPI. I'm not sure that I have accounted the winning percentage correctly, because I didn't go out of my way to adjust for D1 redshirts. With all of that in said, they could slide the thresholds to 27-27-73, which would qualify 27 guys, plus 1 for SoCon. They want to leave at least 4 at large spots, and this would leave 5. They could probably even slide it to 28-28-72, which would pick up the 5th spot for Big 12.

    27-27-73

    Big12: 4
    BigTen: 7
    EIWA: 3
    ACC: 5
    MAC: 4
    Pac12: 2
    EWL: 2
    SoCon: 1 (not qualified)

    28-28-72

    Big12: 5
    BigTen: 7
    EIWA: 3
    ACC: 5
    MAC: 4
    Pac12: 2
    EWL: 2
    SoCon: 1 (not qualified)

  7. #7
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    Default Re: Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

    Quote Originally Posted by Big Bird View Post
    It's early, but this is how I see it (Locks=will get one, probable=75% chance, Borderline=50% and rest of the season will determine, longshot=25% max):
    125- 4 Locks: Lamont UVU, Piccinninni OkSt, Schwarm UNI, Moisey WVU. 1 Probable: Moody OU. 2 Borderline: Bianchi NDSU and Brown SDSU
    133- 3 Locks: Gross SDSU, Bridges WYO, Brock OkSt. 1 Probable: Montoya UNC. 3 Borderline: Schmitt WVU, Sykora NDSU, Parker ISU. 2 longshot: Rubio OU and Jiminez AFA
    141- 3 Locks: Meredith Wyo, Heil OkSt, and Alber UNI. 1 Probable: Longo OU. 1 Borderline: Storr ISU. 1 Longshot: Monserrat WVU
    149- 2 Locks: OkSt starter (Probably Geo), and Thomsen UNI. 3 Probable: Degen ISU, Gliva NDSU, and Jefferies OU. 2 Borderline: Olivas FSU and Fate UNC. 2 Longshot: Lamont UVU and Turner Wyo.
    157- 3 Locks: Ream NDSU, Zilverberg SDSU, Colgan WYO. 0 Probable. 2 Borderline (although I wouls put Mossing AFA here too): Thomas OU and Blaylock OkSt. Longshot: Moore WVU
    165- 4 Locks: Rogers OSU, Fogarty NDSU, Ashworth WYO, Romero UVU. 2 Probable: Torres UNC and Barnes OU. 0 Borderline
    174- 4 Locks: Lujan UNI, Smith OkSt, Kocer SDSU, Mejias OU. 0 Probable. 1 Borderline: Bastian UVU. 1 Longshot: Pope Wyo
    184- 1 Lock: Foster UNI. 2 Probable: Moore OkSt and Gabel UNC. 1 Borderline: Mueller SDSU. 1 Longshot: Jantzer UVU
    197- 4 Locks (although if OkSt let Marsden keep wrestling duals here and then entered Weigel for B12 time, it would be 5): Rotert SDSU, Holschlag UNI, Seeley UNC, Smith WVU. 0 Probable. 1 Possible: Orndorff UVU. 1 Longshot: Eaton NDSU
    HWT- 1 Lock: White OkSt. 1 Probable: Dennison UVU. 0 Borderline. 3 Longshots: Harrington ISU, Stibral NDSU, Isley UNI

    I just did this very quickly so I probably missed some guys.

    I think you're pretty close with all of it, although I have the B12 getting more than you at most weights.

    One big thing that is preventing clarity, is the minimum D1 match number. At this point in the season, a lot of good wrestlers don't yet have 17 matches vs D1 competition at the given weight, which is required to earn an AQ spot
    Here are the Big 12 AQ's
    125 - 7
    133 - 5
    141 - 3
    149 - 5
    157 - 3
    165 - 6
    174 - 5
    184 - 4
    197 - 4
    285 - 3

  8. #8
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    Default Re: Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

    2018 NCAA AQ Spots by Conference

    Capture.jpg

    ACC 34 Total
    125 2
    133 5
    141 3
    149 4
    157 3
    165 2
    174 4
    184 3
    197 3
    285 5

    Big 12 45 Total
    125 - 7
    133 - 5
    141 - 3
    149 - 5
    157 - 3
    165 - 6
    174 - 5
    184 - 4
    197 - 4
    285 - 3


    Big 10 80 Total
    125 10
    133 7
    141 8
    149 9
    157 8
    165 10
    174 7
    184 8
    197 6
    285 7

    EIWA 47 Total
    125 1
    133 3
    141 4
    149 4
    157 6
    165 6
    174 5
    184 7
    197 6
    285 5

    EWL 18 Total
    125 2
    133 1
    141 4
    149 1
    157 2
    165 2
    174 1
    184 2
    197 1
    285 2

    MAC 25 Total
    125 2
    133 4
    141 3
    149 2
    157 3
    165 1
    174 3
    184 2
    197 2
    285 3

    PAC 12 22 Total
    125 4
    133 2
    141 1
    149 1
    157 3
    165 1
    174 2
    184 1
    197 4
    285 3

    SOCON 12 Total
    125 1
    133 1
    141 1
    149 1
    157 1
    165 1
    174 1
    184 2
    197 2
    285 1
    Last edited by Gladiator Dad; 02-22-2018 at 08:21 PM.

  9. #9
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    Default Re: Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

    https://wrestlingbypirate.wordpress....who-owns-them/

    125 (threshold: 30/30/.700):

    ACC (2): Fausz, Hayes
    Big 12 (7): Bianchi, Schwarm, Moody, Piccininni, Brown, LaMont, Moisey
    Big Ten (10): Piotrowski, Oliver, Lee, Mattin, Foley, Lizak, Rivera, Tomasello, Welch, Suriano
    EIWA (1): Cruz
    EWL (2): Russell, Wert
    MAC (2): Akins, McGee
    Pac-12 (4): Millhof, Mendez, Bresser, Townsell
    SoCon (1): Meink
    At-Large (4):

    133 (threshold: 30/30/.700):

    ACC (5): Sherman, Wilson, Forys, Mueller, Gustafson
    Big 12 (5): Sykora, Montoya, Brock, Gross, Bridges
    Big Ten (7): Duncan, Micic, McKee, Pletcher, Keener, Thornton, Delvecchio
    EIWA (3): Terao, DeSanto, Parker
    EWL (1): Myers
    MAC (4): Lantry, Tutolo, Erneste, Kelly
    Pac-12 (2): Naser, Nickell
    SoCon (1): Boston
    At-Large (5):

    141 (threshold: 27/27/.730):

    ACC (3): Headlee, Jack, Zanetta
    Big 12 (3): Alber, Heil, Meredith
    Big Ten (8): Carr, Weaver, Thorn, Red, McKenna, Lee, Limmex, Stickley
    EIWA (4): Smith, Diakomihalis, Karam, Gil
    EWL (4): Zacherl, Shoop, Dippery, Cheek
    MAC (3): Smith, Eierman, Madrigal
    Pac-12 (1): Rohlfing
    SoCon (1): Automatic
    At-Large (6):

    149 (threshold: 28/28/.720):

    ACC (4): Heilmann, Donahue, Krivus, Blees
    Big 12 (5): Olivas, Degen, Gliva, Thomsen, Lewallen
    Big Ten (9): Sorensen, Bannister, Amine, Bleise, McCrystal, Deakin, Hayes, Retherford, DeLuca
    EIWA (4): Sprague, Schuyler, Wilding, Kolodzik
    EWL (1): Perry
    MAC (2): Oliver, Leeth
    Pac-12 (1): Tsirtsis
    SoCon (1): Automatic
    At-Large (6):

    157 (threshold: 30/30/.700):

    ACC (3): Finesilver, Hidlay, Rahmani
    Big 12 (3): Ream, Zilverberg, Colgan
    Big Ten (8): Kemerer, Pantaleo, Short, Berger, Jordan, Nolf, Van Brill, Crone
    EIWA (6): Staudenmayer, Scheidel, Hammond, Brown, Davis, D’Angelo
    EWL (2): Shomers, Klucker
    MAC (3): Heffernan, Lavallee, Early
    Pac-12 (3): Shields, Hammond, Fox
    SoCon (1): Marinelli
    At-Large (4):

    165 (threshold: 27/27/.730):

    ACC (2): Hamann, McFadden
    Big 12 (6): Fogarty, Torres, Barnes, Rogers, Romero, Ashworth
    Big Ten (10): Martinez, Marinelli, Massa, Wanzek, White, Campbell, Joseph, Morrissey, Lewis, Wick
    EIWA (6): Chavez, Wolf, Daniels, Bethea, Schleifer, Deprez
    EWL (2): Marsteller, Walsh
    MAC (1): Flynn
    Pac-12 (1): Valencia
    SoCon (1): Perez
    At-Large (4):

    174 (threshold: 29/29/.710):

    ACC (4): Finesilver, Ramos, Bullard, Bolen
    Big 12 (5): Lujan, Mejias, Smith, Kocer, Bastian
    Big Ten (7): Skatzka, Gunther, Amine, Sebastian, Jordan, Hall, Lydy
    EIWA (5): Harvey, Womack, Johnson, Kutler, Bernstein
    EWL (1): Schoffstall
    MAC (3): Brucki, Lewis, Wright
    Pac-12 (2): Valencia, Subjeck
    SoCon (1): Przybysz
    At-Large (5):

    184 (threshold: 28/28/.720):

    ACC (3): Ness, Renda, Zavatsky
    Big 12 (4): Gabel, Foster, Moore, Mueller
    Big Ten (8): Parker, Bowman, Abounader, Venz, Martin, Nickal, Gravina, Robertson
    EIWA (7): Schneider, LaFragola, Dean, DeCiantis, Preisch, Coleman, Heyob
    EWL (2): Corba, Hazel
    MAC (2): Ellingwood, Marriott
    Pac-12 (1): Automatic
    SoCon (2): Clothier, Carr
    At-Large (4):

    197 (threshold: 28/28/.720):

    ACC (3): Chaid, Macchiavello, Haught
    Big 12 (4): Seely, Holschlag, Weigel, Rotert
    Big Ten (6): Wilcke, Beazley, Moore, Rasheed, Brunner, Ritter
    EIWA (6): Kasunic, Darmstadt, Loiseau, Weiler, Mattiace, Brucki
    EWL (1): Automatic
    MAC (2): Atienza, Miklus
    Pac-12 (4): Lane, Williams, Griego, Traxler
    SoCon (2): Boykin, Diabe
    At-Large (5):

    285 (threshold: 28/28/.720):

    ACC (5): Kasper, Daniel, Boykin, Solomon, Dunn
    Big 12 (3): Nevills, White, Dennison
    Big Ten (7): Stoll, Hemida, Coon, Jennings, Snyder, Nevills, Streck
    EIWA (5): Dempsey, Ryan, Sweany, Hughes, Wood
    EWL (2): Miller, Haines
    MAC (3): Gunning, Stencel, Hutchison
    Pac-12 (3): Hall, Dhesi, Butler
    SoCon (1): Heino
    At-Large (4):

  10. #10
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    Default Re: Big XII AQ Spot Predictions

    At first glance, this is great.

    HWT is really the only weight I can quibble with at first glance.

    Iowa State earned 1 AQ spot for the conference.

    197 is going to be a real meat grinder. Jake Smith and Sammy Colbray didn't earn spots, but they'll definitely be in the mix for a spot.

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