I was thinking about this the other day and I originally agreed with you, however one note is the wins by FCS over FBS.. I didn't do any specific analysis, but it seems like that trend is increasing. Heck it used to be an FBS win was almost an instant ticket to the much smaller playoff field (Its what really got us in our first year). That doesn't seem to be the case any longer.
# of FCS wins over FBS
2017 - 10
2016 - 10
2015 - 9
2014 - 8
2013 - 16
2012 - 10
2011 - 6
2010 - 7
2009 - 5
2008 - 2
2007 - 9
2006 - 7
2005 - 2
2004 - 6